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Today's show:
How many startups matter in tech? Fewer than you think. That's why venture capitalists are tripping over themselves to get onto their cap tables, no matter the cost. Why? Footwork's Nikhil Basu Trivedi argues that the Valley has never been more "power-law-pilled" than it is today. Basu Trivedi joined Cendana Capital's Michael Kim and TWiST's Alex Wilhelm to go deep on secondary markets, the state of startup M&A, why the SaaSpocalypse may be temporary, and what could trigger a retrenchment of the AI trade. It's Wednesday, so it's time for our venture capital roundtable to go deep on how VCs are investing today, and where on the horizon they have their eyes fixed!
Guest links:
Nikhil Basu Trivedi https://x.com/nbt
Footwork https://www.footwork.vc/
Michael Kim https://x.com/MKRocks
Cendana Capital https://www.cendanacapital.com/
Show links:
The USVC-Anduril blowup https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/2072701195714531398
Kline Hill Cendana Partners https://www.secondariesinvestor.com/kline-hill-and-cendana-raise-400m-for-second-vc-secondaries-fund/
GPTZero's exit https://gptzero.me/news/preserving-whats-human/
Salesforce buys Fin https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2026/06/15/salesforce-signs-definitive-agreement-to-acquire-fin/
Vercel buys Better Auth https://vercel.com/blog/vercel-acquires-better-auth
Figma buys Bud https://techcrunch.com/2026/07/07/figma-acquires-team-behind-a-vibe-coding-app/
Protoge https://withprotege.ai/
Windborne https://windbornesystems.com/
Etched https://www.etched.com/
Lovable's reported raise https://sifted.eu/articles/lovable-300m-13-2bn-valuation
Josh Browder https://x.com/Joshuabrowder
Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction: Nikhil Basu Trivedi (Footwork) & Michael Kim (Cendana Capital)
1:59 The Anduril vs. USVC secondary market blowup
4:08 Why Silicon Valley is 'power-law-pilled'
8:23 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!
9:37 Information asymmetry in the secondary markets
9:45 Every.io — For all of your incorporation, banking, payroll, benefits, accounting, taxes or other back-office administration needs, visit https://every.io
15:02 Is SPV fraud smoke or fire?
16:32 Superhuman acquires GPTZero
19:54 Agree.com - Stop chasing invoices and automate your entire contract-to-cash stack. Go to https://agree.com and tell them Jason sent you to get 50% off for life!
21:10 The M&A wave
27:19 The SaaSpocalypse debate
29:59 DigitalOcean - Head to https://do.co/twist to start building on DigitalOcean's AI-Native Cloud today — and cut your AI workload costs by up to 50%.
30:44 Data's moment in the energy → compute → data loop
35:01 Where will AI value accrue?
40:04 What could cause an AI correction?
42:17 Why some companies are "too big to miss"
46:23 China's possible open-weight model ban
53:28 Young founders: Etched, Thiel Fellows, Z Fellows, Neo
55:33 Portfolio spotlight: WindBorne's weather balloons and data moat
58:47 Michael's favorite fund manager: Josh Browder
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