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Jeff Henriksen: Hello, everybody. And welcome back to the Value Seabill podcast, the weekly-ish version, the short version, Donnie. And I'm I'm really glad we did do the weekly-ish, because I'll be honest, you and I am we ain't been doing it weekly, but you know, weekly-ish. So I'm happy with that.
Donnie Sattar: We keep it weekly ish. I think we've got you know, a lot of responsibilities on our head, man. So you know and we wanna make sure we're building
Jeff Henriksen: I know, we got a lot of stuff going on. A lot of stuff.
Donnie Sattar: up something interesting to talk about, you know, not just waste anyone's time. So
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah. Right, right. Well, I was a little bummed I didn't get to to do the one from Oxford 'cause I was for those of you that don't follow me, I've been traveling for like the last month and I was in Oxford for a week and that would have been a fun one to do, but alas, it just got so busy. So you know how it is. anyway, how you been, dude? How's life? You good?
Donnie Sattar: We're good here. it's during the fall, as you can see, the fall out back. So you know, I think on
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: our our fr our weeklies tradition, we wanted to to do a nice little toast. So to kick off
Jeff Henriksen: Totally. Yeah. What do you got? What are you drinking today, bud?
Donnie Sattar: the weekend, I have a it's called it's from Dangerous Man Brewing. They're they have a tap room
Jeff Henriksen: Like there.
Donnie Sattar: in northeast Minneapolis, and so it's a peanut butter porter. I kind of have a nice fall, cozy one. I can see like see the leaves changing
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: in front of me. So it's been a very long week, a very long week. So I'm thrilled to be cheers with you right now. And so
Jeff Henriksen: Be
Donnie Sattar: yeah, what do you got?
Jeff Henriksen: at that point. Well, I mean, carrying on with the fall tradition, although we might be a little past Oktoberfest, I guess, which I've never understood that because we're in October. But but anyway, I've got Star Hill Brewery, it's a local brewery here in Charlottesville. I got their their it's called their festy, and it's a Oktoberfest lager. So yeah, I mean, you know, it's fall. I it I don't think we're quite to the point where I can drink a pumpkin beer yet, but maybe you know, maybe next time I'll I'll bust out a pumpkin beer or something. Just
Donnie Sattar: Yeah, give it a week or two. that's been keeping
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah, a week or two. You gotta get a little closer to Halloween. Yep.
Donnie Sattar: you busy. We'll start with you this time. what's on your desk? What's on your plate? It's just there's so many so many headlines flying, but you know, we're trying to we're
Jeff Henriksen: god ya.
Donnie Sattar: trying to filter a signal from noise. I think that's our big job,
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: you know, as just investors in general. So kind of what's the what's the filter you're at and hopefully you seeing some good signal for us.
Jeff Henriksen: You know, I'm gonna I'm gonna kinda lead with one that I don't know, maybe a lot of people might laugh at because when I first heard it, I I kinda laughed, but then I I started thinking about it. And I think it actually might be more significant than meets the eye. But th the whole change, you know, kind of spearheaded by Donald Trump to not call artificial intelligence artificial intelligence, but to call it super intelligence. And it's been funny watching, you know. Jensen Wong and Musk and all these guys catch themselves calling it superintelligence. But I started thinking like, okay, well, what does that say about the administration's views, right? And like, can we can we get any kind of insight into the desire to call this superintelligence and not artificial intelligence? And, you know, kind of on the back of all the AI scare and stuff like that. And I don't know, Donnie, to me it, it, it speaks volumes in a way, because I think it really. you know, illuminates where the administration's mindset is, which is to say, you know, I think they view this whole thing as an arms race of sorts. And, you know, th they want to go full bore into getting the, you know, the best artificial, superficial, whatever the, you know, you want to call it, intelligence. And so if I look at the next few years from a policy perspective, I think it's going to be very AI friendly. so that was one little nugget of news that I kind of I I ruminated on a bit.
Donnie Sattar: Just like unpacking that, let's just unpack that for a second. Cause I, you know, really
Jeff Henriksen: I don't know, what are your thoughts on that? Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: I I haven't had a chance to to think about that too much. it seemed semantics to me, but now that you're saying it, it's starting to to to make me think a little bit deeper into it. So I do appreciate you you bringing this up.
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah. Artificial sounds like bullshit, but super sounds you know, it's like Super Nintendo, right? When that came out, right? Super intelligence. Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: See so your thinking is like this is a the change in nomenclature is an indication of how they view
Jeff Henriksen: Mindset.
Donnie Sattar: potentially like wanting us to buy into it more and understanding that it is something that the there's an arms race element to it. Because if you let someone else have super intelligence that's more super than your intelligence, then you've got a problem. I
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah. Exactly.
Donnie Sattar: think and that's what Sam Altman has said, and all these guys have said in different podcasts or or just interviews. And so this is bringing that together
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah, no I
Donnie Sattar: in some sense.
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah, I mean, I think sometimes in life these little bitty things that kind of seem ridiculous or meaningless actually have more meaning than you think. And, you know, there's been a lot of pushback, you know, it I think
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on both sides of the aisle with regards to data centers and, you know, and then there's, you know, obviously the the fear that, you know, that we're gonna enter some kind of Terminator type world and AI is gonna take over all this stuff. And yeah, I I get the sense that Trump doesn't like that. I mean, he doesn't think that way and he wants America to be fully on board and kind of Calling it super versus artificial, yeah, I think it it does, I think, provide at least some insight into how they're viewing this race. And, you know, I'm not I don't want to get into politics here, but I I would agree with the idea that it it is an arms race. And you definitely don't want somebody to have a a a super err, if that's I don't think that's a word, but I'm gonna make it up. A super er intelligence. and I think to pursue it aggressively. It's the situation we're in, right? It's almost like game theory. I think not almost, it is, it's like prisoner's dilemma, right? It's like maybe we're all better off if we slow down and and use caution. But the problem is that creates this incentive to cheat, to deviate. If I know you're slowing down and I actually speed up at the time you're slowing down, then then I can, you know, and win this thing, right? And so, and by a completely parallel set of logic, you think that way. And I guess in game theory, they'd say the dominant strategy, you know, is to to build nuclear weapons to build superintelligence and I don't see how we get a around this reality. And so I I I'm on board, I think, with with with building it as, you know, best we can. Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: Yeah, the change. Yeah, so it's interesting. So this harkens back to a term we all use today. And maybe it's it's a little bit there's some parallel here, I think, which is we all talk about climate change today. And in this was a early two thousands. It was initially global warming. Remember, it was always global warming, global warming. And George Bush at the time, they felt that the Republican Party was the most at vulnerable to to the the environment. And so they wanted to soft it from global warming to climate change. And that's how we now all use climate change today. And so, you know, it's a small change, but you know, there's an argument that maybe it did soften it. I I I don't know. I mean, you have to ask somebody better at the political histories, poly sci person. But that's a change where we did change the term and we all have now use it. Everyone says climate change. you rarely hear global warming. and and so then now it's like super intelligence. a bunch of people came together now, we're we're gonna use it. And yeah, what does it gonna what does it Subconsciously say, what does it consciously say? That's interesting. I haven't thought about it. I do appreciate bringing that up. yeah.
Jeff Henriksen: I mean, it's not they didn't just come I don't think this was just some whim that Trump had. Like he thought it would be cool. I think there was probably
s a lot of thought that went into wanting to call it super intelligence versus artificial intelligence. And when you unpack what went into that thought, you know, you'd kind of get some insight into how you know, the administration is thinking about these
Donnie Sattar: Yeah.
Jeff Henriksen: policies. And yeah. So that that's
Donnie Sattar: Interesting.
Jeff Henriksen: kind of my first insight. You know, the other the other thing I've kind of been just in a market perspective, you know, we've we've come off, I think, In terms of like Ford multiple on the S P about three turns over the last month and a half or so. I mean, obviously earnings growth and expectations have kept up, but you know, when I look at the market today, and and I think it's pretty well known, I'm I'm a AI bull. I'm not seeing crazy froth, at least on Ford multiples, if you believe these earnings are sustainable. I mean, I think we we're trading at something below twenty times Ford now. and so yeah, I think there's you know, I some interesting buying opportunities there. especially in you know some of these hyperscalers. I think they're they're you know pick your hyperscaler. I think they're you know I w we're full of disclosure along Google. I I think Google's very attractive here. you know, I know a lot of people to bullish on Meta, Amazon. So I think there's some interesting opportunities in the market.
Donnie Sattar: Guess look the the the macro, which admittedly I'm not gonna be able to nail and it's it's a tough one. But but you know, which rates going back up or I mean I guess they that they're just they're going up securely in a way that we haven't seen
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: in a long time, which does typically I'd say align
Jeff Henriksen: Ten year to thirty years been yeah, every day.
Donnie Sattar: with, you know, a lower multiple on the index, right? Just for for all the reasons that people here would know.
Jeff Henriksen: Absolutely. Right.
Donnie Sattar: So it's not necessarily un irrational, but it does you
Jeff Henriksen: No, not at all.
Donnie Sattar: know, it's it's It's i not having a raising side market sometimes feels a little bit I don't know. It's you can get more comfort around it that it's not gonna turn and and whipsaw back to the direction. So I think there is that.
Jeff Henriksen: Right.
Donnie Sattar: But you know, with the rates, I mean look, I always think I I always, you know, my view is that the bond guys are always the smarter guys, you know, they're they're always ahead of things. And so it's definitely something to keep an eye on. I mean, it is a forward forward kind of it's it's a it's not a it's a yield curve that's a normal yield curve in a sense that it is upward sloping. Which, you know, for so long you see these then already deal clear so everyone complains about recession. Yeah.
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah. And term premiums have been going up quite a bit. So, you know, the the the amount that investors demand to hold longer duration you know, debt has has gone up over the last month and a half. And it
Donnie Sattar: Yeah, yeah.
Jeff Henriksen: but I mean, to the I I guess I I guess why I'm bullish is I I under I completely understand why this is happening. Obviously, Iran, you know, the conflict there is not resolving itself and it's I feel like every other day it, you know, it escalates up, then it comes down and you know, I think a couple of days ago, yesterday maybe there was another attack on an oil tanker. So oil prices go up, and then the market fears, you know, that energy prices higher for longer, rates are gonna have to go higher, and you know, and the the you know, the entire yield curve sells off, right? That but ultimately, ultimately, when I think when I look out five years from now, I mean, I don't see I I'm I'm heavily in the camp of the deflationary or di at least disinflationary forces that AI will bring about. And so I I think if you take a five-year view, the longer term yields are starting to look interesting to me. I I I am bullish on economic growth. So I think a lot of our debt problems, I can talk more about France in a minute. That's another thing that flared back up this week, a potential debt crisis in Europe. But you know, I I think we have the potential, the US that is, is to to economic growth's gonna look really, I think, a lot more robust over the next decade than people think, and that'll help things. And If that happens in the context of you know disinflationary forces from AI, you know, yields come down and and you know, relatively attractive multiples on comp you know high quality compounders that that can grow north of say 20%. in five years, I think you you'll look back and say, damn, that was a good time to maybe get some 30-year bonds and and buy some Google. You know, full disclosure, I own 30-year bonds and Google. So, but anyway, what about you, man? What's going on with you? What do you think about
Donnie Sattar: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, look, I mean I think that that is kind of it's an interesting segue. I mean, this is in and you about what kind of what I'm looking at and so from like a more a a macro perspective, I guess or meta perspective maybe is just trying to understand you know, this data center kind of build out. And the reason why is I think I've I've seen a lot of pit presentations where other investors have talked about ideas that that who I who I enjoy talking to about certain companies, but at the end of the day, they tie back to the data center, call it, you know, the trade in the data centers, right? So, so I'm, you know, I I it's it's all these, so if you're I don't know, the HVAC person or whatever, you're still beheld ultimately to the tailwind that is the data center build out. And and to some degree, you know, the macro part, there is a little bit of, you know, it it's been kind of I w I shouldn't say it's driving the economy, but it's been it's it's there. It's it's it's responsible for a lot of
spend in the economy. and so y yeah I don't think anyone can deny that. Now I don't wouldn't say it's the main driver of why the economy is well. But but so I've been spending time looking at that, and so I just went through and just pulled a bunch of data. let's see if I can share this data, because I think it's just kind of interesting. let's see if I can pull this off.
Jeff Henriksen: I actually looked at while you're pulling that up. I mean, I think based on current CapEx plans that have been announced, does something like thirty gigawatts of data center capacity being added globally every year between now and say twenty thirty? Does that sound roughly right to you?
Donnie Sattar: All right, well that's actually
Jeff Henriksen: I think I think.
Donnie Sattar: you know, I think what we'll we'll talk about here. so so I don't know if you can you Yeah.
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah. Gotta get my my reading glasses 'cause I'm old. Here we go.
Donnie Sattar: So so the this is all data that I'm just you know we've been pulling from different sources. So this is from FERC. So this is you I think these are pretty pretty good sources, but you know the data center demand over the last five years went from seventeen gigawatts year end to fifty one gigawatts at you know twenty twenty five. And what With a gigawatt, if if anyone just familiar, it's you're putting electricity into a data center, a facility, and it's spitting out intelligence in a sense. And now some of that is actually for the parasitic load and to run the the networking and the cooling, but majority of it is actually the intelligence that's coming out. So this is what the in-service data center capacity is.
Jeff Henriksen: And real quick, Donnie, just to give that context, I believe I'm right on this, although our viewers can fact check me. I think total gigawak gigawatts of electricity generated in the US every year, something a little over five hundred gigawatts. Does that sound right? Just to kind of give some context to this. I I think that's about right. Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: So yeah, so we'll we'll cut we'll get to that here. yeah, that's a great yeah. So so so to so just to you know set the so that's seventeen from in twenty twenty to fifty one, so we've tripled twenty four percent K G Gar we've seen, right? So this is what you know, so just thought that was interesting. And then going to total US data center electricity usage, so today what people are projecting is by you know twenty thirty, we're gonna have a much higher amount. And on the right, you can see what the share of the US electricity is. So in twenty twenty four, data centers accounted for four point seven percent of all the electricity in of the United States. And so I thought it was a pretty interesting fact when you think about, you know, four point seven percent, what people are saying in twenty thirty, there's these different kind of estimates out there of anywhere between nine and seventeen percent of all the electricity used in the United States is going to be in data center. So in four years from now, we're gonna have this quite a bit kick up, whether it's double, triple, quadruple, not sure, but it's definitely putting it out there as a
Jeff Henriksen: And on the left, that's that's
Donnie Sattar: higher number.
Jeff Henriksen: that's just pure data center electricity use. Yep. On the the left hand side there, right? Yeah, that's what it says. US data okay. So they're projecting
Donnie Sattar: Correct yep.
Jeff Henriksen: whoever I don't know where this data came from to get to over six hundred gigawatts in data center by twenty thirty.
Donnie Sattar: Berkeley Labs. Yeah, it is terawatt hours, so it's a little bit of different calculation. but yeah, yeah. It's terawatt hours, so it's a little bit different. Yeah, but one thing I would just Yeah, one thing I would just caveat to anyone is looking
Jeff Henriksen: sorry. is that sorry, wha what that's not gigawatts. What is that? That's terawatt hours. Okay, my bad. Yeah. 'Cause I was about to say that didn't those if those were gigawatts, that didn't look right to me, but terawatt hours gotcha.
Donnie Sattar: at this is there's so many different sources of data. And I think because there's
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah, yeah.
Donnie Sattar: a lot of political forces, which we'll get into here in a minute, it you know i it's really hard to say like what is a certain piece of data. So but this is from the Berkeley lab. And it and really the in what's important here is the four point seven percent and in what the forecast, there's different these these wide range of forecasts. But that four point seven percent, and this is from again, this is from the Berkeley lab here is in 2018 it was one point nine percent of the total usage in the United States, so electricity usage. So we've seen data centers actually in six years more than double in terms of how much. in the percentage of electricity. Now we've now we put on a lot of electricity capacity during this period. I don't have that in front of me, but it has gone up. There is all the time people are putting on new you know facilities. So in
Jeff Henriksen: Right, right.
Donnie Sattar: it in a rising so it is we are seeing this happen. And so you know it's kind of I think this is just interesting to just note, right, like what this is an accelerating curve. And we're still look this is still I think all in arrears what's what's ahead of us. And so You know, the disclosed pipeline today that we're hearing about. So as I mentioned, you know, we have about fifty megawatts, and it's pointing point five. The declose disclosed pipeline is three hundred and thirty gigawatts. And
Jeff Henriksen: Is that between now and when?
Donnie Sattar: it's like what is people have said they are going to build. Now I think there's a far cry from people saying that they're gonna build it and actually getting it. In active development, so this is really, I think, you know, permits and all that is
about 132 gigawatts, which is still over 200% more than what we have today. in construction, so what's being built is seven and a half megawatts now. And so, you know, it's a there's a lot of people I think making announcements, a lot of stuff in active development, a lot of stuff in construction. but the numbers are clearly going up, right? Even the seven point five gigawatts compared to fifty, it is a it's it's this is happening. It's really being built, you know, this seal in the ground here. in
Jeff Henriksen: You know, and I and just h the hold on that slide for a second. I it was about a week ago. It was actually the day that they the superintelligence thing happened. It was when they all met in Washington. Elon Musk did a I I saw a thing on YouTube where they he was in Washington and he was being interviewed. Who interviewed him? It might have been Gavin Baker, I can't remember. But anyway, and in that he mentioned that he thought kind of given where we are in terms of the amount of intelligence that comes out of a gigawatt that that roughly I think is I think what he said was that if you get a one he the way he views it is if you get a 1% increase in like gigawatts, that that should be roughly associated with a 1% increase in economic growth. Right. So think about that for a second and kind of look at what if he's right, I'm not saying he's right, but if you if you think that's right, and I think Musk is a pretty smart dude, This is what makes me bullish, Donnie, on economic growth. Just that chart, like the amount of gigawatts they're looking to build. To me, that's very bullish for economic growth. Like super bullish.
Donnie Sattar: Yeah, I mean I I that that's worth repeating that, you know, he the belief is one gigawatt he said one gigawatt is
Jeff Henriksen: No any so a one percent increase in power in gigawatt or so i in the amount of power produced, so we can talk in terms of gigawatts, would would roughly create one percent economic growth. So if you're doing like 500 gigawatts, right, so one percent of that would be like five gigawatts. If you increase the entire electric, you know, the the the capacity in the United States by five gigawatts, that would roughly give you a one percent increase in economic growth. If I understood them correctly. If understood him correctly and I'm pretty sure I did. Yeah. So check I I encourage you
Donnie Sattar: Well he's let me give you a quick a very quick
Jeff Henriksen: and our viewers to go watch that interview. It's it's it's a really good interview. Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: Yeah, absolutely. Let me do a quick a a quick trivia question for you. how many homes are in Charlottesville, Virginia? Yeah, how many homes
Jeff Henriksen: God. I'm phoning a friend already. Sorry, what
Donnie Sattar: are there in Charlottesville, Virginia?
Jeff Henriksen: How many homes? like in the city or like the larger Albemarle County?
Donnie Sattar: sh just Charlesville, Virginia. I I could I looked at the census data, you know, earlier today, so
Jeff Henriksen: how many homes like actual like dwellings? I would guess maybe Fifteen thousand? Ten? Fifteen thousand? What is it?
Donnie Sattar: It's twenty thou there's a twenty thousand and how many homes the
Jeff Henriksen: 20,000. I was light. Okay. I was gonna guess 20, but I anyway. But yeah, okay. But yeah, roughly. I was kind of there.
Donnie Sattar: Yeah. And so how many homes do you think a hundred megawatts will provide power for?
Jeff Henriksen: I have no idea. I wish I knew the answer to that 'cause I'd look smart if I did, but no, I don't know.
Donnie Sattar: Yeah, it's about 75,000 to 100,000 homes. So when we're in 100 megawatts,
Jeff Henriksen: Okay.
Donnie Sattar: so there's a thousand megawatts in a gigawatt. So when you when you think about the SEAR number of homes, it is kind of staggering. And this is this is the number that kind of started to blow my mind a little bit. Is in 2020, the average data center size was 25 megawatts. Today, it's 80 megawatts. By 2030, the expectation that the average data center size is going to be 400 megawatts. And the the size of the one that's being built, the Stargate, the one in Abilene is the size of Central Park. I think we've seen a bunch of things there. The one that
Jeff Henriksen: Right.
Donnie Sattar: that Mega Meta is planning on building, the five gigawatt one, or I you know, depending on the numbers you look at, it's three point six or five gigawatts. It's four times Central Park. I mean it's really almost the size of Manhattan, I think is what people are saying. So you you're seeing these big like if you stack on top of each other, you're seeing these much bigger facilities that are taking more power. and there's just this this compute demand. And when you when you you're kind of when you're given that macro kind of forecast in a sense, it's you can kinda at least see something here, right? If assuming all this intelligence is needed and and used and it's super intelligence as you mentioned, at least there's a lot that's being built. but the other thing I've been wanting to look at and I'll kind of shut up about data centers here in second, but is just, you know, what are like the opposition groups? Because it is an electrical topic. And I this something I I mean, just candidly, just I you know, I don't follow politics a lot. I try to just kind of, you know, we're investors, you try to keep a as neutral of a mindset as you can. But I just wanted to understand like what is the nature of the opposition groups. And the opposition groups are really growing. By the end of at the end of 2025, it was 396. Now you have over 800 people opposition groups stopping this. Active 489, you 49 states. You saw, I mean, the things in Texas that were, you know, a state that you would think be super friendly. and there are, you know, real projects that are actually that have been canceled because of local opposition. you know,
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah.
Donnie Sattar:
to this year to date, over 260 you know, I guess billion, I think. Yeah, billion dollars worth of of projects. So these are like huge numbers, something I just had not appreciated. so you know, look. put all together, it's kind of the the data center trade. is you know trade, I think you know, you can see the staggering numbers and there's a lot of a lot of stuff that goes into these things. and so you know I it's an interesting one. I mean it it when I hear companies that are building, doing stuff, whether it's just putting laying down concrete, whatever it is, I can at least see why it's interesting. And that's why I I wanted to go down this path. you know, I'm
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: not So so anyways, I'll I'll I'll kind of stop there, but I thought that was just an interesting kind of data set to look at to kind of frame the data center discussion.
Jeff Henriksen: I think it's great. And and you know, I think where it really is gonna come down to, whether or not, you know, if if bullish folks like myself, and I'm pretty sure I read you correctly, Donnie, you you seem pretty bullish on on AI, is gonna be around, you know, at some point we're gonna get a productivity draw from this, right? We're gonna find out like how much more productive AI makes companies and and makes all of us. I mean, it's at a certain point and know, when we're making investment right now, I mean, all this capex is based on an expectation of, you know, a productivity draw that is, you know, a fairly high level. I I think ultimately what matters is where that actually comes in at. And so to me, it's not the question isn't whether or not AI is a great thing to have and makes you more productive. I think anybody that's used it or built any type of agentic workflow knows that it is. I think the bigger issues around these bottlenecks, like opposition for data centers to what you just said, or even like within corporations, just the an unwillingness to adapt and and and implement. and and to be to be fair, I don't blame people for not wanting data centers, right? It's like, you know, these things come into your community and they they, you know, use all this power and water and, you know, drive up utility costs and and then the technology that comes out is going to take your job, right? I get why people don't want them, but at the same time, You know, you have to live in the world you have, not the one you want. And the one that we have is one that's, you know, going all in on AI. All right. Back to my initial super intelligence thing. I mean, I think
Donnie Sattar: Yeah, super tough, yeah.
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah, I mean, you have to just accept that this is the direction the world's going in. And but I think a lot of people aren't there yet. I mean, I even people I know and and family and stuff that are are still very leery and you know, don't know. quite what to make of it, but I love it. It makes my job easier. Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: Yeah, look, I think you go back to the you know, the agentic kind of launches, which were earlier this year. I that's the one thing, you know, when when you really break down like ChatGBT when it first came out, three point I mean, it it was interesting. It like but it didn't have these enterprise use cases that the agentic workflows do today. And now we're gonna start to see it. And then what I'm interested
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: in is like the one day, like when is this gonna happen where you know the S C and A line item today, you kind of think of it as like employee costs, right? I mean It's eventually gonna be like that's gonna be tokens. And I think that's that's coming, right? And and and so I think that's gonna be
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah, I agree. Yep.
Donnie Sattar: really interesting when we start they start disclosing, you know, how much is spent on these tokens and this becomes a competitive thing because let's say, you know, you've kind of made this point a lot a lot and and and it I agree with it, and I think you've helped me kind of see it in some senses, you know, you you X company is using more tokens and they're winning market share. You've got to go and start using those tokens, right? So as these guys disclose it, it's gonna become this more of a I think a race, especially if someone is like getting ahead in in the token usage can be seen. So I think there's competitive it's just it's just so early, I think is is the way maybe to frame it as putting it together. So
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah. And I maybe it will I know we're kind of at the almost 30 minute mark, so I don't want to drag on, but well I'd like to do a podcast on like how agentic workflows, you know, redefine fundamental investing and specifically how it redefines what makes a good fundamental investor. Because what I've found is you know th there are I I would say one of the big benefits or well, I'd say one of the Something a quality that gave, I think, a lot of investors, really good investors, an edge was their ability to just digest information. So you would hear people brag, I read 500 pages a day, this, that, and whatever. and I I don't read 500 pages a day. I if I read a hundred pages a day, I'd be happy. but I know they're you know, like Warren Buffett. I mean, you back in the day, 500,000
Donnie Sattar: Well buffer, yeah.
Jeff Henriksen: pages a day, they they talk about it. But like that is an edge. Like the ability and just the willingness to do that and not be bored out of your mind, I think is eroding because you don't need to read 500 pages a day anymore with a GenTic AI. I mean, they will go and do the bulk of that w for you and you can read 50 and get probably better digested information than if you read a thousand on your own. And that's just the reality of the technology. And so I wonder what does that mean for what makes a great investor? Does you know, kind of just overall judgment start to matter more. as opposed to just raw like willingness to dig, dig, dig, dig,
and, you know, lock yourself in a basement, not come out for eight hours and I got my thousand pages today. I I wonder if that's really gonna be a an important attribute in the future when, you know, so much of that heavy lifting can be done through a gentic agents that, you know, deliver su effectively summaries. Now I know a lot of people are going to disagree and they're gonna say it can't be trusted, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I disagree with that. I think the When I've used it and I've gone back and checked it all myself, I mean, I'm amazed at how accurate it is. so I think I'd love to do a larger podcast on that subject because I think we're at a point where the types of qualities to consistently generate alpha in a world with agentic workflows like like we're seeing, is I think it's gonna change, in my personal opinion. Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: I not to you know belabor the question too so I think it's a great question to kinda end on. But I do think that even you and I have seen this in real time because we, you know, I think a year ago when we first started did like a podcast on an investment idea, we would query the AI to give us a bull bear argument. And, you know, it was good.
Jeff Henriksen: Mm-hmm.
Donnie Sattar: It was but when you do it now, wow, it's like, wow, I can get up to speed really quickly and see things
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah. Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: I think that you know, it's like beyond what Well I mean a year ago compared to it's not even the same report. So you've seen it already and then it's like
Jeff Henriksen: It's not even the same t it's almost a different technology. Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: where's it going, right? so anyways, yeah, I thought that was just like an interesting kind of add on to that.
Jeff Henriksen: Well, how many times I mean, how many times, Donnie, have we done a podcast where you know it's somebody'll come on, some person will come on and pitch a stock, and you know, we maybe spend a day or two prepping, but not like all day, maybe you know, two evenings. But we use those agentic workflows, you the alpha sense workflows to get smart really quick, and we'll start asking questions. And then when the interview's over, they'll be Man, you guys really did your homework. And I kind of don't, I kind of like, yeah, I guess we did, right? But I'm like, we didn't
Donnie Sattar: Yeah.
Jeff Henriksen: really do that much. We I put some agents out there and we got the information we needed and we read it very carefully and took notes. And I mean, you know, two years ago, we would have had to have spent a lot more time, you know, maybe four or five days to go as in depth into some of these ideas as we've gone. and I think honestly, that's a great thing. Like it anything that frees up time to do other things, whether that's other
Donnie Sattar: Yep, yeah.
Jeff Henriksen: pursuits, other academic pursuits, spending time with your loved ones is a good thing. And so I dude, I'm bullish. I love it. I love AI. I'm all in on AI. And
Donnie Sattar: hoping you were gonna say that the decades of pattern recognition and built up business acumen was what really did that, but we'll give AI the we'll
Jeff Henriksen: That yes, not I think that
Donnie Sattar: give AI the credit on it.
Jeff Henriksen: No, no, pattern recognition is very important. I think I think pattern recognition as an investor becomes even more important in this world. and I think judgment and pattern recognition and being able to apply, you know, kind of Munger's lattice work of mental models, like that will be what matters more than I can grind through, you know, five, ten K's in a day or whatever. Right. I think I I think it's gonna alpha is gonna be generated in the future by people being very intellectual, using a variety of mental models, classic monger, you know, approach, that can exercise good judgment, that understand risk versus reward very well. I think risk management's gonna be very important. but a lot of the the heavy lifting, you know, like I I I don't I know people say they love reading dense legal docs. I I think I don't know anybody that really thinks that. I mean, I like people like to say it, but like, I mean, God, not having to go. and read that level of stuff anymore and being able to rely on agents to pull out the the germane sections, it just makes life better, dude, in my opinion. It makes it a lot better. And so
Donnie Sattar: Yeah. It's certainly no, certainly and it helps you even get through those those complicated documents quickly because you can get the cliff notes and then go to
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah. Right.
Donnie Sattar: places you need to go. So I think there is a lot there. So Well, I think this is
Jeff Henriksen: I mean, yeah, it's like Yeah.
Donnie Sattar: a good way to to get the the the brain going
Jeff Henriksen: Did it?
Donnie Sattar: for the weekend. especially for a long week and
Jeff Henriksen: Totally.
Donnie Sattar: it's a beautiful it's beautiful there. Here it looks beautiful here too. So let's let's enjoy it, man.
Jeff Henriksen: Yeah, I'm gonna go right down the road to our local I'm gonna go down to our local market, listen to some bluegrass tonight and yeah, just enjoy the weekend. So it's been good catching
Donnie Sattar: Sounds lovely, man.
Jeff Henriksen: up, Al.
Donnie Sattar: All right, Jeff. Until next time.
Jeff Henriksen: All right, see you guys, take care.
Donnie Sattar: Okay, take care.