Vollständiges Transkript von November 5th, 2026

mean every family is doing great. In fact, 33 00:02:03.859 --> 00:02:06.680 the opposite is very real. I mean, clearly we know 34 00:02:07.280 --> 00:02:09.819 that not every family is doing awesome. But when we 35 00:02:09.860 --> 00:02:12.620 include more of the businesses where families actually spend money, 36 00:02:13.120 --> 00:02:15.030 the picture gets a little bit more clear for us 37 00:02:15.110 --> 00:02:18.849 to make a decision on whether or not the consumer 38 00:02:19.270 --> 00:02:23.110 is consuming or falling apart. And right now, it doesn't 39 00:02:23.129 --> 00:02:27.469 look like they're necessarily falling apart. How about high yield? 40 00:02:27.530 --> 00:02:29.939 You know what? High yield bonds are always a good 41 00:02:30.000 --> 00:02:33.699 place to take a peek as to what's going on. 42 00:02:34.020 --> 00:02:36.819 High yield bonds often tell a story about where equities 43 00:02:36.960 --> 00:02:40.780 might be headed as their particular values tend to be 44 00:02:40.819 --> 00:02:44.169 more closely tied to equities earnings than they are yields 45 00:02:44.250 --> 00:02:47.729 like traditional bonds. And we can see how high yield 46 00:02:48.129 --> 00:02:51.210 is doing by looking at the advanced decline data for 47 00:02:51.250 --> 00:02:55.180 high yield bond investments versus simple moving averages and currently 48 00:02:55.419 --> 00:02:58.240 what the S & P 500 index is doing. And 49 00:02:58.259 --> 00:03:01.180 so what is that saying? Well, it's just telling us 50 00:03:01.219 --> 00:03:03.800 that high yield still stinks. It's down about 4% so 51 00:03:03.840 --> 00:03:08.330 far this year. And that's frankly unfortunate for the stock 52 00:03:08.370 --> 00:03:12.110 market buy and hold bulls since those two items, high 53 00:03:12.150 --> 00:03:16.009 yield advanced decline and the stock market index, the S 54 00:03:16.009 --> 00:03:17.969 & P 500, well, they tend to move in the 55 00:03:18.009 --> 00:03:21.900 same direction with high yield leading. Now, if that relationship 56 00:03:21.939 --> 00:03:25.650 remains true, yesterday might not have been the bottom for U.S. 57 00:03:25.719 --> 00:03:29.430 equity markets, especially for tech. Words of the day for investors, 58 00:03:29.889 --> 00:03:32.930 be nimble and have a process. If those two things 59 00:03:32.969 --> 00:03:35.729 don't exist, you might want to rethink your buy and 60 00:03:35.789 --> 00:03:40.500 hold strategy when it relates to markets in general. So 61 00:03:40.539 --> 00:03:42.680 let's think about the strength of markets in general. Let's 62 00:03:42.699 --> 00:03:45.620 look at trend strength. Within the S & P 500, 63 00:03:45.620 --> 00:03:48.439 or excuse me, indexes, which would include the S & 64 00:03:48.400 --> 00:03:53.949 P 400 indexes, 500 and 600, just basically looking at 65 00:03:53.990 --> 00:03:57.180 large cap, mid cap, small cap, the percentage of stocks 66 00:03:57.319 --> 00:04:01.599 with 50-day moving averages above their 200-day averages has begun 67 00:04:01.659 --> 00:04:05.819 to recede pretty meaningfully. Now, this is reversing the gains 68 00:04:05.860 --> 00:04:08.819 that we saw earlier this year, and that's pointing to 69 00:04:08.860 --> 00:04:13.120 some underlying weaknesses. The mid cap indexes are signaling the 70 00:04:13.159 --> 00:04:18.250 weaker of the three cap weightings, and that's interesting. often 71 00:04:18.310 --> 00:04:22.569 because the mid-cap weightings can, in many cases, do better 72 00:04:22.850 --> 00:04:25.670 than the other cap weightings. Small caps, of course, are 73 00:04:25.730 --> 00:04:28.860 subject to all sorts of problems with high interest rates 74 00:04:29.160 --> 00:04:31.620 because they don't have the same cash flows that mid 75 00:04:31.660 --> 00:04:34.839 and large caps do. Large caps can't grow their earnings 76 00:04:34.920 --> 00:04:38.160 as rapidly as small caps. So volatility, of course, is 77 00:04:38.199 --> 00:04:40.540 different between the two. And mid-caps, they sit right in 78 00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:43.899 the middle. And so oftentimes we see mid-cap stuff really 79 00:04:43.939 --> 00:04:47.480 do okay. Well, So far, the signals we're getting out 80 00:04:47.540 --> 00:04:50.370 of mid caps are the weaker of the three. Now, 81 00:04:50.389 --> 00:04:53.889 does this mean that markets are just ready to crash? No, 82 00:04:54.089 --> 00:04:58.149 not necessarily. But underlying weakness in individual constituents versus the 83 00:04:58.209 --> 00:05:01.290 index is clearly not ideal. That's not what we would 84 00:05:01.329 --> 00:05:06.540 like to see. Interestingly, the safe stocks have become expensive. 85 00:05:06.579 --> 00:05:09.060 And when I say safe, I mean those that make 86 00:05:09.120 --> 00:05:12.620 up the S & P 500 low volatility group. You 87 00:05:12.639 --> 00:05:16.399 can look at that via SPLV as an example. a 88 00:05:16.439 --> 00:05:19.959 lot of these stocks have become expensive, while growth and 89 00:05:20.000 --> 00:05:24.939 momentum names have become relatively cheap. Additionally, the S & 90 00:05:23.899 --> 00:05:29.120 P 500 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is at levels not seen, well, 91 00:05:29.139 --> 00:05:33.019 for several years. And this might point towards rotation within 92 00:05:33.050 --> 00:05:37.230 the index more than anything else. Rotation away from tech 93 00:05:37.290 --> 00:05:42.089 still seems pretty relevant, and while at the same time 94 00:05:42.230 --> 00:05:46.670 we're seeing rotation toward more value names like Staples in healthcare. 95 00:05:47.670 --> 00:05:50.829 The value style factor is clearly stronger than the growth 96 00:05:50.870 --> 00:05:54.040 style factor. And all you have to do is compare IWD, 97 00:05:54.100 --> 00:05:57.199 which is the value fund, versus IWF, which is the 98 00:05:57.259 --> 00:06:00.959 growth fund. If you go to our website, careformywealth.com, hover 99 00:06:01.259 -->

00:06:05.319 over listen and read, click on CWM's daily briefing, there's 100 00:06:05.339 --> 00:06:08.310 a chart on the very bottom of the page that 101 00:06:08.370 --> 00:06:13.389 shows that comparison. And when you compare IWD versus IWF, 102 00:06:15.370 --> 00:06:17.810 what you want to see is, well, which direction is 103 00:06:17.860 --> 00:06:22.459 the line moving? If you're comparing that ratio, IWD to IWF, 104 00:06:22.560 --> 00:06:24.600 and the line is moving up, it's telling us that 105 00:06:24.639 --> 00:06:27.180 value is beating growth. And if you just look at 106 00:06:27.240 --> 00:06:31.250 individual charts of IWD versus IWF, you'd see very clearly 107 00:06:31.550 --> 00:06:34.930 that's true. It's also important to note that there are 108 00:06:34.970 --> 00:06:38.050 some pretty big names that take up space in both 109 00:06:38.089 --> 00:06:41.839 of those style factors. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, for example, are 110 00:06:41.879 --> 00:06:44.490 a few. And again, this just points more towards internal 111 00:06:44.529 --> 00:06:48.930 market rotation than anything. NVIDIA and all the semiconductors and Google, well, 112 00:06:48.949 --> 00:06:51.470 they're lagging, to say the least, kind of getting hammered, 113 00:06:52.069 --> 00:06:55.009 along with the entire AI infra trade that's been going on. 114 00:06:55.629 --> 00:06:58.649 While those other three, at least to this point, have 115 00:06:58.709 --> 00:07:04.230 picked up. Amazon has recovered from their earnings bashing. Same 116 00:07:04.290 --> 00:07:07.410 is true with Apple. Microsoft seems to be hanging in 117 00:07:07.449 --> 00:07:11.180 there so far. So until that changes, we just have 118 00:07:11.199 --> 00:07:13.379 to look at what the data is saying. And the 119 00:07:13.430 --> 00:07:16.410 data is saying value is better than growth. We've got 120 00:07:16.449 --> 00:07:20.970 some problems with underlying constituents versus the index. And if 121 00:07:21.029 --> 00:07:25.370 weakness in individual constituents by way of how they're trading 122 00:07:25.569 --> 00:07:29.430 in terms of their 50-day and 200-day averages, if that 123 00:07:29.470 --> 00:07:32.879 continues to weaken, then eventually we could see the indexes 124 00:07:32.959 --> 00:07:35.339 catch up. Same is true for high yield. If we 125 00:07:35.379 --> 00:07:40.370 compare HYG to SPY, you can see that there's a diversion. 126 00:07:40.790 --> 00:07:44.509 And if the stock index tends to catch up to 127 00:07:44.550 --> 00:07:48.759 high yield, well, then that tells us that we probably 128 00:07:48.800 --> 00:07:53.079 haven't seen a bottom yet. And time will tell. We'll 129 00:07:53.100 --> 00:07:54.800 just have to kind of let it play out as 130 00:07:54.839 --> 00:07:57.540 we always do and then move on from there. All right, 131 00:07:58.040 --> 00:08:00.180 that's it for today. I hope you have an amazing, wonderful, 132 00:08:00.199 --> 00:08:01.899 beautiful day. You know how to reach us. If you'd 133 00:08:01.920 --> 00:08:04.199 like to, feel free and do so. And we will 134 00:08:04.259 --> 00:08:07.750 see you on the other side. Until then, always remember, 135 00:08:08.120 --> 00:08:08.689 Jesus loves you.