TRANSKRIPT 🔗
00:00:04
Speaker 1: Countdown with Keith Olderman is a production of iHeartRadio. This is a bonus, bite sized bullet edition of Countdown, and there are early signs of a potential title wave of disastrous polling indicators for convicted felon Donald Trump after he was found guilty of all thirty four felony charges Thursday. Here in New York, ten percent of registered GOP voters tell pollsters they are now less likely to vote for Trump. More startlingly, fifteen percent of Republicans eight percent of those identifying as true Trump supporters, say he should now drop out of the presidential race. These are from separate polls by IPSOS for Reuters by Morning Consult Reuters Polling Thursday and Friday, and in the Reuters poll, ten percent of Republican registered voters say they are now less likely to vote for Trump if even half of those if five percent actually do not vote for him. Using Trump's twenty twenty vote totals, he just lost seven and a half million votes. If spread evenly across the country, he just lost twelve Electoral College votes or more. Among independent registered voters, twenty five percent told Reuters that Trump's conviction makes them less likely to support him in November. Remember yesterday I observed that just two percent of Trump's GOP support in twenty sixteen, peeling away from him would have costume Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and the election. The angry data. In the Reuter's poll, eighteen percent of Independence said they were now more likely to vote for him after the convictions. Thirty five percent of Republicans said the same thing, more likely to vote for him. But what does that number actually mean? They're going to vote twice for him? They might try. The Daily Consult polling is from Friday exclusively, and in it forty nine percent of Independence, fifteen percent of Republicans, eight percent of self styled Trump supporters say he should now drop out end his campaign after the convictions. Those are big numbers. The caveats what to ask the voters is not yet solidified even in the pollsters' minds. Daily Consuls asked if he should drop out, but did not ask its voters and police if they were less likely to vote for him now. Reuters asked if they wouldn't vote for him, but did not ask if he should drop out. More significantly, there is such a thing as verdict shock and scandal shock, and there is such a thing as telling polsters whatever you think makes you not look like a jerk. And there is still the Tephlon Dawn effect. On the morning of October two, twenty sixteen, according to the right leaning average of polls by Real Clear Politics, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by two and a half points. On October seventh, the access Huh Hollywood Grabbed Them video was revealed. By October thirteenth, in that same polling average, Trump nearly trailed by seven points. He had taken a polling hit of four point two points one month and a day after the tape came out. He was elected president. Seventy percent of voters
Load full transcript
told exit posters that they thought Trump's treatment of women was troubling, and twenty nine percent of them voted for him anyway. So today's poll numbers ten percent of registered GOP voters say they are now less likely to vote for him, eight percent of those identifying as Trump supporters, and fifteen percent of Republicans saying he should drop out. Those numbers are disastrous, but soft. The big picture, Reuter's overall has Biden leading forty one thirty nine. The Daily Consult overall is Biden forty five forty four. These new results obviously not baked into the general public perception, but ABC's five point thirty eight reported late Friday. A few posters have also asked two versions of the standard who will you vote for question in recent weeks, one straightforward one and one that asked respondents who they would vote for if Trump was convicted in the New York case. On average, Trump went from leading by one percentage point in these polls without considering the conviction to trailing by six points with it. That would mean he's going to take a seven point hit. We don't know that fully, because the two polls I've been quoting here are basically all we've seen because pollsters, like everybody else in political media and politics generally, are too lazy to work on the weekends. Some incidentals from both of these polls. Sixty percent of registered voters are telling Reuters it is important that the three remaining trials take place before the election. Thirty nine percent say it's not important that they do so. Of course, their opinion seems to be far less important than that of the Supreme Court and Eileen Cannon, who were not polled by either Morning consult or Reuters. In the Morning Consult poll, fifty four percent approved of the thirty four felony convictions. Fifty four percent believe Trump committed a crime. Morning Consult also finds forty four percent of voters think he should go to the slammer, forty nine percent say probation is sufficient, sixty nine percent wants some kind of monetary fine. Obviously, that would include those who want it in addition to jail or probation. Incredibly, not one key crosstab in either poll comes up with the number thirty four. However, late Friday night, the Biden campaign seemed to shake off its initial reticence, and it put out a pretty damn funny list of thirty four highlights from what it called the unhinged speech Friday afternoon, by quote, convicted felon Donald Trump. The fact that it is willing the Biden campaign, that is, it is willing to use that phrase convicted felon Donald Trump, may be as important as anything that comes out in the polls. I will not read you all thirty four items. They are available everywhere. Number eleven was Trump saying, let me give you the good news and their take on it. There was no good news. And of course number eighteen, you saw what happened to some of the witnesses that were on our side. They were literally crucified by this man who looks like an angel, but he's really a devil. He looks so nice and soft. The Biden campaign response to that number eighteen, whoa and number thirteen quote Trump the unselect committee of thugs. The Biden response to be honest, fantastic fantasy football team name and as always convicted felon. Donald Trump has responded not to the polling but to the convictions with his usual calm and never pouring gasoline on a raging fire. From his fundraising text at noon Eastern today, quote from Trump, they want me behind bars. They want me dead mile. On the other hand, it doesn't have to be both. This has been a bonus, bite sized bulletin edition of Countdown. It's a new briefer format in addition to the regular episodes. Because of that, I'm going to ask you to do me a favor and forward this to somebody who is unaware of it or unfamiliar with the podcast, and to recap the headlines that justify doing this. The first two significant polls to follow Trump's conviction Thursday on thirty four felony charges in New York suggest that at least from the moment, ten percent of registered Republicans say they are now less likely to vote for him, eight percent of those identifying as Trump supporters, and fifteen percent of Republicans say he should end his presidential campaign and drop out now. Full details on the polling and all the other weekend developments in the next full length daily Countdown podcast, posting late Monday night and Tuesday morning till then. I'm Keith Olderman. Good Day, good night, and good luck. Countdown with Keith Olderman is a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.