TRANSKRIPT 🔗
WEBVTT
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Hey, real quick, if your project schedule looks like it was built in 1997,
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it's probably because it was.
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Some scheduling software out there, and you know which ones I'm thinking of,
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haven't exactly kept up with the times.
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And let's be honest, nobody opens those schedules and feels great about it.
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So Planera is a modern CPM scheduling platform built for construction teams
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who actually want to use their schedule.
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So real-time, collaborative, visual, and powerful enough to handle the complexity
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without making you hate your life.
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There are better ways to plan And plein air is one of them Check them out.
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Let's just jump into it. Hugh Seaton, welcome to the podcast. How are you doing, man?
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I'm great. Great to be here. I feel like I've been wanting to have you on for
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a little bit, Hugh, for a variety of reasons. He's been playing hard to get, Stephen.
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I know. He does that well. I'm known for that. I'm known for my shyness and fear of a microphone.
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But it's lovely to be on. You guys are doing a great job. I appreciate that.
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I think you are a few different things. Author, strategist, founder.
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I think you're, you know, what a dog owner, dog owner, multiple dog owner, multiple dog owner.
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But I think lately, I think you've provided a really good kind of industry agnostic
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perspective into a lot of the AI conversations.
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And so that was one of the few reasons I wanted to have this conversation.
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And so, you know, maybe just to kind of position the first question is,
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In kind of the realm of AI, you've been kind of mentioning to the construction
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tech community, like the need to pull back a little bit and just look at this
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through the lens of kind of this moment in history.
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So where do you see kind of AI right now kind of more broadly as a technology?
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Yeah, it's a great question. So
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I think any technology this big and this fundamental takes a while, right?
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So you look at mobile, you look at the Internet, and the Internet is probably
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the one people will remember the most clearly because it went through stages
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where you had to download.
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Gosh, you had to download your AOL at one point. But, you know,
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back in like, let's call it 1998, 1999, we had these really janky websites that
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you had to like click to re-download.
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And, you know, you think about what that was like versus what it was like five
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years later or 10 years later.
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And now we have the cloud and SaaS and, you know, the Internet on your phone.
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The point is that we need to understand that we're early in a process.
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I mean, just today, another model came out. And it doesn't matter when somebody
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listens to this. That's probably more or less true.
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So it's happening so quickly right now. And as the internet,
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or sorry, as the data centers build out more, you're going to see that happen
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for a while, that they're going to be competing on increments of how good their models are.
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The point of all of this is not to look at AI right now and make an assessment
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of how good, bad, or indifferent it is, but to say, okay, what can we do now
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that will prepare us for a year,
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two, three years later as not just the AI, but the tools around it get better
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to the point where it's useful for people that don't care?
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That's when it really matters, right? It's when people that aren't nerds about
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this stuff are like, okay, I'm not sure how I'd live without my little agent swarm or agent fleet.
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Let me ask the million-dollar question just to kick this thing off. Yeah.
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Construction industry isn't necessarily known for pivoting quickly and being
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able to really embrace and successfully adopt technology quickly, right? It takes a while.
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And I've known so many, so many companies that fail in adopting a project management
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solution who never really adopt an accounting platform that actually structures their business.
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Or, you know, and the list is long. The list is so long.
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And so, you know, with how quickly things are moving, every day there's a new
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headline, to your point, it's only going to get worse. It's only going to get faster.
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So you're a construction company. What do you do? What do you do when you're
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constantly being onslaughted with this volume of information,
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the speed of information, and the overwhelm of it
Load full transcript
all?
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Not to mention you spent, you know, we'll call it 100K on Procore for year one,
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and the team didn't adopt any of it.
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I think the difference between AI and other things is, like it or not, people are using it.
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So a good analogy is probably mobile, where there was a period when,
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whether it was construction or other industries, your people were answering
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their emails on their phones.
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And people lost their minds for a little while because that was super insecure.
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And then they figured out some mobile device management.
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So right now, anyone under the age of 22, you have to assume they just got through
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high school or college with ChatGPT writing their essays.
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So whether you want to adopt it or not, your people are using it.
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They're figuring out what's going
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on with the contract or dumping specs in there to see what's going on.
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So I think the difference – I'll answer your question properly in a sec,
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but I do want to set the stage that not every technology is the same.
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And I think talking about adoption of technology in a broad sense can be a little
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bit misleading because things that are clearly written or created for the office
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really struggle when people aren't in the office.
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And we saw that 10 years ago when, you know, essentially accounting software was put on mobile.
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Other things, though, like find the other industry that other than maybe oil
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and gas that uses drones like construction does or uses reality capture or uses, you know, 3D modeling.
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They exist, but it's pretty rare. And there aren't a lot of accountants that do that.
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So for sure, there are some structural and some kind of individual reasons why
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a lot of software and a lot of technology struggles in construction.
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One of them is that you don't have a CIO just buying for the company.
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Like, that's hugely different.
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But I think AI is a little bit different because people are using the chatbots
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at home. They're using, like, no one uses Procore to figure out what to do this weekend.
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But they are using chatbots. Or how to write it or help write a letter to an
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owner or help try to polish it. you know, a letter to a subcontractor.
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I guess, though, to sort of reorient my question is, do you get the sense that
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companies are holding back on implementing or adopting larger platforms.
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Because of how the pace of every, the change. Meanwhile, yeah,
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here's a ChatGPT account. Go interact.
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Go get super curious because we're struggling doing sort of what we've been
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trying to do for 10, 15 years or whatever. You know what I mean?
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Does that make sense? 100% does. And I think we're definitely seeing that.
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So as I run out and talk to contractors about AI and how they might adopt it
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or what they might do, there's definitely a concern among some of them that
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I don't want to invest in something like a bespoke solution right now because
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I'm afraid the models are going to get so good they can just do it.
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I think that's probably overdone, but I understand their concern because they've
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all dropped money on things that no one used to your point, or that's probably the big one.
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I think that the models are already good enough to do most of what we want them to do.
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The big innovations I think in 2026 are going to be what they're wrapped up in.
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The first part of the year, you've seen these agent harnesses like Claude Cowork
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and there's some other things.
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OpenClaw was another one that really wrapped the models into a useful framework
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to get stuff done. It's super early.
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And honestly, most people haven't touched it yet.
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But I think that that's going to wind up, that kind of thinking is going to
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wind up being real valuable.
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And your original question is, what do they do now? And I think the starting
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point is to say, let's get our arms around the chatbots we know they're using.
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And everyone's had a policy. Usually the policy is very focused on security,
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which frankly is the least of their worries.
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Thinking they've got an easy button is probably the biggest worry.
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And the second one is, I don't know what it is, but chatbots cannot answer concisely.
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Even when you tell them to, you still get two pages.
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So getting good at prompting so that you're just getting what you want instead
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of, because you think about what happened when mobile came out.
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The difference between at work and not at work dissolved, right?
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And it creates all sorts of mental health issues.
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People don't show up fresh the next day. They're a little annoyed that they're
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trying to have dinner with their family and they're getting texts or calls that
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they know they have to answer.
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That won't happen with AI, but something related will. And I think that giving
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people more stuff that they need to consume and think about is a danger.
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And it's an addressable danger if you know how to prompt. And that's my point
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is, I think a good early step is recognizing those two problems of overwhelm.
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And the bigger one really is the easy button. because AI is not perfect.
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It doesn't know what's going on in your job. It doesn't have any judgment like a human would.
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So it's going to give you a first draft of an answer. And if people treat that
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like a final draft, they're going to find, they're going to get in trouble.
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Well, and I think like what we're all kind of pointing at is what we've struggled
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with as an industry for a long time, which is change management and kind of
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the paradigm of change management itself is changing, right?
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Because I think if you think about how to implement any kind of change,
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you're assuming some constants. And one of them is that the thing you're attempting
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to implement is not dynamic. It's somewhat static.
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And that whole concept is like breaking. The flip side of that,
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though, is the technology itself is packaged in a way, in theory,
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that would reduce friction to implementation.
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Lars, did you have a thing before I answer? Oh, I just, my mind is,
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my mind hurts right now. So, but Stephen, what's crazy now.
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You can see every, every, every emotion, every thought, just little mini rockets
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and trains all flying around.
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Now, Stephen, though, what's crazy, and we've talked to other guests,
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at the end of the day, there's fundamentals in construction that aren't going anywhere, right?
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And my concern, and I've shared this, is are we getting away from those fundamentals?
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Are we injecting more complexity in?
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Or are we on this verge of, no, we're actually really close to simplifying and
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focusing after 20 years of sort of like disconnected distractions and failed
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implementations around technology?
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I feel like there's both of those. I'm glad you added that.
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The change management, a lot of times people think software adoption is change management.
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And that really is, of course, it is a little bit. But I think there's an opportunity
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here to look at how the processes are done.
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Now, it's a regulated industry that has contracts that everybody, of course, loves.
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So there are limits to how you can move around certain parts of the process.
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But if you can start looking at what people do and how they do it and say,
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all right, there's some things we can't move, but there's some things we can.
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And there's some things we can automate or augment that make it enormously faster
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to do some of the shuffling of papers and finding stuff and all that and summarizing it,
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connecting dots and all that so that you have a little more time to think about
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things or pick up the phone and call someone.
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Your point, Laura, is about things that are just going to be true in construction.
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You're not going to get away from people out in the field figuring stuff out.
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Right. And how many of the solutions and how much of the project is decided
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and figured out when you're not near a computer?
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Of course, you have your phone in your pocket, but I think that's not going away.
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The question is, how do you make that time when somebody's out there.
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How do you make that more effective?
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So, they're not thinking about, when I go back, I have these RFIs to get into.
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Got to write all this stuff and coordinate with this person.
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Got 15 phone calls. Yeah.
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The phone calls probably don't go away. But maybe one of the things that I love
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is that right before a call with some, like a difficult call,
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maybe it's with a sub or maybe it's with an owner or who knows,
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I want a quick briefing because I just got off another call.
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So AI can pull together a quick briefing for me to say, all
right,
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you're about to talk to Lars and we know how difficult he can be.
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And it gives me the ability to just be smarter in that moment.
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That's a tiny, tiny use case.
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But I think that there's an opportunity. And I think the difference between
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adopting AI versus really integrating it. And I don't know that you do this right now.
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I think the first step is what I said before, which is spending the time to
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just get good at what you got in front of you.
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And I think the fact that we know there's innovations ahead of us,
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we don't quite know what they are. There's some things we know people are working
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on, but it may work, it may not.
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Don't sweat where it's going to be. know that the models are as good as they need to be.
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It's how you're surrounding them or how the providers are surrounding them with
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tools and with guardrails and all that.
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And that's getting, that's already, this year, we've already seen a big step forward.
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So the Claude Coworks and the Open Claws is a meaningful step forward.
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And it's not an incremental one. It's kind of a big one.
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So I think you've got the ability now to say, let's just get good at that stuff
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and let the other things figure it out, figure themselves out as they come.
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Otherwise, you're paralyzed. Otherwise, you're like, you know,
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okay, I'm just going to wait till some future moment when I think it's good enough.
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And then your competitor is outbidding you because they can get a bid together faster.
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They understand the gotchas in the bid if they're there.
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And they're winning and you're losing because you're slower than they are.
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So let's pull a thread on that terminology we started with, which is if we're
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kind of at the point of AI where, you know, we're looking at kind of internet in the 90s.
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The businesses that really were able to leverage that moment, maybe they focused on.
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Cable infrastructure. They focused on like some decisions around like data storage.
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Like what are the, what's the analog for, for the, for the companies that,
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that position themselves well as, as internet was maturing in the nineties and
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early two thousands with kind
of this takeaway of,
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Hey, we're in a constant state of change, but you also can't sit on your hands.
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So like, how would we, is it, is it just data strategy?
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Is that one of the kind of building blocks? I think people overestimate how
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much of a blocker data strategy is right now. Obviously, people should be getting better at it.
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The thing that always comes up is you hear funny numbers like 95% of construction
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data isn't used. Well, what do you mean?
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Do you mean that all my PDFs where I've copied three versions of the same RFI
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or some conversation that isn't relevant anymore because the thing's been put
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in place? It's like, just because you've got a million PDFs doesn't mean you've
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got a million data points. It means that you've got a lot of stuff to go through.
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Yeah, not a lot of points. So talk to anyone that's doing handover and you know
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what I'm talking about. Oh my God, you just gave me a terabyte of irrelevant information.
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Thank you so much for satisfying the contract.
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So I think that first would be, like I said, some fundamental or kind of basic
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capability and using the things yourself.
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Because you're not going to know the limits of it really. I can tell you all
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day long that, oh, it might hallucinate or it might be incomplete or whatever,
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but that doesn't mean anything until you played with it.
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So I think that leaders were using it for their personal life just to say,
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look, this is coming and I'm going to figure out what we're doing this weekend.
00:15:29.011 --> 00:15:30.811
I want to go to a new barbecue place, whatever.
00:15:31.211 --> 00:15:35.471
You can start to get an intuitive sense so that you can apply your judgment
00:15:35.471 --> 00:15:39.051
as a leader or as a PM or as a PE, whatever the level you are.
00:15:39.331 --> 00:15:42.851
So you can apply your own judgment and say, I think this would help me here
00:15:42.851 --> 00:15:46.091
and I don't trusted over there. And no one can tell you that.
00:15:46.331 --> 00:15:51.611
I mean, they can give you guidelines and a starting point, but ultimately...
00:15:52.767 --> 00:15:55.747
People that are in the work are going to know where the blockers are,
00:15:55.867 --> 00:15:59.607
that AI as it currently stands can really help. I'll give you an example.
00:15:59.807 --> 00:16:04.847
So I do some work with Smackna, and one of their members had seen some webinars
00:16:04.847 --> 00:16:07.407
I'd done, and he'd been playing around with doing exactly what I said,
00:16:07.527 --> 00:16:08.307
playing with it himself.
00:16:08.467 --> 00:16:12.507
And he said, you know, my PMs keep driving me nuts. He had 40 PMs,
00:16:12.607 --> 00:16:17.127
and they do their timesheets with Excel, right, like half the industry.
00:16:17.487 --> 00:16:22.287
And that's a big Excel spreadsheet. So his PMs kept driving him nuts saying,
00:16:22.447 --> 00:16:25.947
I don't know what sell to do. And you know what I mean? And that's a tiny thing.
00:16:26.207 --> 00:16:29.307
Are you going to hire somebody to go fix that for you? No, you're just going
00:16:29.307 --> 00:16:31.507
to live with it and, you know, tell them to have a cup of coffee.
00:16:31.847 --> 00:16:35.567
This guy goes in, he asked ChatGPT, how can I fix this? It gives him three options.
00:16:35.687 --> 00:16:38.647
He chooses a surprising one, which was, I'll write some code for you.
00:16:38.847 --> 00:16:42.967
It writes the code, tells him to turn on developer mode, which I didn't even know existed.
00:16:43.719 --> 00:16:47.179
It tells them where to pop it in, and it worked. Now they have this template
00:16:47.179 --> 00:16:50.459
that when you click a cell, the row and the column light up.
00:16:50.779 --> 00:16:56.359
There's a million things like that. And that, to me, is where giving that capability
00:16:56.359 --> 00:17:00.439
to folks at the ground level and at every level, they're going to start to say,
00:17:00.619 --> 00:17:03.459
I'm blowing a lot of time just finding the right cell, and then I've got to
00:17:03.459 --> 00:17:05.039
go check the thing, and so on and so forth.
00:17:05.039 --> 00:17:09.719
And so think about that as a thing that people can do right now is to get smart
00:17:09.719 --> 00:17:13.639
about it at the individual level so that people start saying,
00:17:13.819 --> 00:17:16.139
where might AI make my life better?
00:17:16.239 --> 00:17:21.859
And I think that the skill that is valuable now is – I heard a really good example.
00:17:22.159 --> 00:17:25.079
You guys are familiar with parkour. That's the thing where people run around
00:17:25.079 --> 00:17:28.579
on desk – I knew it. You do parkour.
00:17:28.719 --> 00:17:31.419
I knew it. I've seen you in videos, Hugh. That's right. Totally.
00:17:31.679 --> 00:17:34.339
That's right. Only here in Austin, though. Parkour. Yeah, that's right.
00:17:34.779 --> 00:17:38.559
What happens is people that do that get what they call parkour vision,
00:17:38.739 --> 00:17:42.759
where they look at buildings and they're immediately assessing where they could
00:17:42.759 --> 00:17:43.919
jump up and how they could do it.
00:17:44.179 --> 00:17:48.319
Well, I think there's an equivalent of that here, which is kind of AI parkour
00:17:48.319 --> 00:17:52.519
vision, where you start looking at your work and say, I'm not going to trust
00:17:52.519 --> 00:17:55.619
it over there because of X, Y,
Z, or it won't save me time.
00:17:55.619 --> 00:18:00.419
But I know that if I connect these two steps and have AI sit in the middle and
00:18:00.419 --> 00:18:02.579
I'm there to watch what comes out or however you want to do it,
00:18:02.959 --> 00:18:06.819
that's a real skill that's not going to get less useful. It's going to compound
00:18:06.819 --> 00:18:08.579
over time because you'll get better at it.
00:18:08.959 --> 00:18:11.659
You'll start getting more creative. And at the end of the day,
00:18:11.799 --> 00:18:15.099
you don't hear construction being described as a creative industry.
00:18:15.099 --> 00:18:17.839
It's probably one of the most creative industries because you're constantly
00:18:17.839 --> 00:18:21.039
figuring out and coming up with new ways of making that.
00:18:22.591 --> 00:18:27.771
A circle go into a square hole. We're naming this episode AI Parkour Vision.
00:18:28.231 --> 00:18:32.551
Okay. I mean, that's the best analogy I think I've heard of the way in which
00:18:32.551 --> 00:18:34.011
AI can augment the human brain.
00:18:34.791 --> 00:18:38.211
So I got that from a guy named Nate Jones. So if people want to nerd out,
00:18:38.331 --> 00:18:41.531
he's got a YouTube channel. I got to give him props. Nate B. Jones.
00:18:41.991 --> 00:18:45.751
He's the originator of AI Parkour Vision? That's right. It was a podcast from
00:18:45.751 --> 00:18:49.711
a little while ago. We're reaching the early 2000s for the parkour reference.
00:18:49.971 --> 00:18:52.871
That's right. Oh, good. And if you saw the guy, he probably doesn't do parkour.
00:18:54.651 --> 00:19:02.551
Bless his heart. So absolutely love what you're saying. And even in my own journey
00:19:02.551 --> 00:19:09.071
around, you know, AI usage is exactly what you just said, which is, wait a minute.
00:19:09.111 --> 00:19:12.991
I just opened up this new door, this new capability, solved the problem.
00:19:13.491 --> 00:19:16.831
And now I have 10 more pick your own adventure doors to go in.
00:19:17.691 --> 00:19:21.591
Mind is blown, right? But I want to go back to something.
00:19:22.420 --> 00:19:26.940
And not that I'm not that I'm like shame, shame on that company,
00:19:27.080 --> 00:19:29.920
but it's like they're using Excel for timesheets.
00:19:30.520 --> 00:19:35.140
And it's like that to me is the gap.
00:19:37.080 --> 00:19:40.020
And there's plenty of like, I think, you know, digital apps.
00:19:40.100 --> 00:19:41.820
I've certainly used a number of them just on there.
00:19:41.920 --> 00:19:44.800
You know, people can punch it in, you know, and it's like, no,
00:19:44.860 --> 00:19:48.980
no, no, we're still we're still using Excel for timesheets.
00:19:49.060 --> 00:19:51.960
And you said 40 p.m. in a I'm guessing
00:19:51.960 --> 00:19:55.680
mechanical subcontractor probably 250 500
00:19:55.680 --> 00:20:00.600
plus organization and they're using excel timesheets but but even like I would
00:20:00.600 --> 00:20:05.420
push back
even on that takeaway a little bit because I think if we think about
00:20:05.420 --> 00:20:11.300
the like technology as as a tool that we leverage you know we've we've been
00:20:11.300 --> 00:20:14.980
kind of programmed a little bit to think about technology through the lens of like SaaS.
00:20:15.420 --> 00:20:18.480
Apps, right? You're saying apps? No, apps, solutions.
00:20:18.880 --> 00:20:24.380
Okay. But as Claude and ChatGPT have integrated themselves into Excel,
00:20:25.060 --> 00:20:30.520
it kind of transforms the use case and, you know, the potential value.
00:20:31.540 --> 00:20:40.280
So, go ahead. No, no, it's just this idea around, you know, when I first started
00:20:40.280 --> 00:20:44.200
my first construction business, right, it's lack of structure, right?
00:20:44.280 --> 00:20:49.100
You're sort of starting from nothing. And as an engineer, I desired structure,
00:20:49.280 --> 00:20:50.960
system, processes, workflows, right?
00:20:51.180 --> 00:20:54.640
And Outlook and Excel aren't workflows, aren't necessarily processes,
00:20:54.920 --> 00:20:59.080
right? It's a PDF or it's an attachment, an email with a data cell and a block
00:20:59.080 --> 00:21:01.780
and a number that I can go put in an accounting system.
00:21:02.440 --> 00:21:06.800
But and again, as I'm every morning, I wake up and, you know,
00:21:06.860 --> 00:21:08.580
I get these little AI feeds, AI updates.
00:21:08.700 --> 00:21:11.700
And it's just like my mind is blown with another one, another one, another one.
00:21:11.820 --> 00:21:15.980
And I desire simplification as an entrepreneur in my organization.
00:21:15.980 --> 00:21:22.000
I desire enough structure and enough decentralization and autonomy that the
00:21:22.000 --> 00:21:26.800
operators can go do efficiently what they're extremely good at, right?
00:21:27.040 --> 00:21:30.780
And not overwhelm them with noise. And Stephen, in this case,
00:21:30.980 --> 00:21:35.500
you know, in my mind, what I heard Hugh say was, hey, we're still doing timesheets
00:21:35.500 --> 00:21:37.680
over here on Excel. And I'm like, that's insane.
00:21:37.860 --> 00:21:40.600
But what I heard you just say was like, no, no, no.
00:21:40.600 --> 00:21:46.420
So is that the most simplest and basic way, fastest way to now get the output
00:21:46.420 --> 00:21:50.740
you need as an organization rather than, hey, for $5.99 a month,
00:21:50.880 --> 00:21:55.140
you can have, you know, for every person in your organization can digitally submit a timesheet.
00:21:55.260 --> 00:21:57.760
And, you know, maybe 10 years ago, that was like really slick. But guess what?
00:21:58.240 --> 00:22:01.920
You don't need that anymore. You can orient some of these sheets with integrated
00:22:01.920 --> 00:22:06.060
Python code to those automations that create similar outcomes, right?
00:22:06.320 --> 00:22:12.660
And Claude is in Excel and PowerPoint now. So I think there's another thread
00:22:12.660 --> 00:22:16.140
that this
leads us to, and that is that AI is going to be embedded in everything.
00:22:16.460 --> 00:22:22.780
So if you've got a 45-year-old PM who's been doing things a certain way or whatever
00:22:22.780 --> 00:22:26.860
the role is, and they're really used to the flexibility of Excel –.
00:22:27.750 --> 00:22:31.770
One of the things that AI, even now, and certainly more in the future,
00:22:31.950 --> 00:22:36.250
is good at is taking things the way you've given it, like the way you give it to it.
00:22:36.350 --> 00:22:39.830
You don't need to input it the way it needs it.
00:22:40.050 --> 00:22:43.190
And that's one of the reasons Excel still gets used is because you can just
00:22:43.190 --> 00:22:44.410
drop in there what you want to do.
00:22:44.770 --> 00:22:48.310
Yeah, it's like a piece of paper that you can send people. And I think that
00:22:48.310 --> 00:22:54.890
you'll find that some of the strictness that SaaS requires isn't required by AI.
00:22:54.890 --> 00:22:57.790
Now, you have control issues because now you've got to make sure that it,
00:22:57.910 --> 00:23:00.790
I mean, the value of having things exactly the right way is you can predict
00:23:00.790 --> 00:23:01.630
what's going to come out.
00:23:01.990 --> 00:23:05.510
But you can handle that in other ways with AI where you're telling it what you
00:23:05.510 --> 00:23:07.010
want, maybe giving it an example.
00:23:07.250 --> 00:23:11.250
So there's other ways to get that control. And once you've done it, it'll repeat it.
00:23:11.610 --> 00:23:18.750
So I do think that where you can give people the ability to work the way they're
00:23:18.750 --> 00:23:22.710
comfortable working and then add the value and intelligence on the back end,
00:23:22.710 --> 00:23:25.230
That's one way I think that we can really win.
00:23:25.510 --> 00:23:30.290
And, you know, we've got a lot of folks that are the repository of 20, 30 years of experience.
00:23:30.530 --> 00:23:34.850
How do we make them more valuable? How do we give them more time to mentor,
00:23:35.250 --> 00:23:37.270
to solve harder problems, to talk more?
00:23:37.470 --> 00:23:41.810
Because, you know, you don't know what someone knows until the problem comes
00:23:41.810 --> 00:23:42.530
up that they're solving.
00:23:42.790 --> 00:23:45.390
Like, it's really hard for people to tell you everything. I mean, they can't.
00:23:45.730 --> 00:23:48.690
So the more they're out there helping people and they've got time or,
00:23:48.790 --> 00:23:50.630
you know, they're on the tough job, whatever it might be.
00:23:51.270 --> 00:23:56.810
I think that one of the roles AI absolutely can play is elevating human capability, not replacing it.
00:23:57.430 --> 00:24:00.990
You've heard me say this before. I'm skeptical of AI that doesn't make the person
00:24:00.990 --> 00:24:03.490
better, not the company, not the process, the person.
00:24:03.750 --> 00:24:07.550
That's why Trunk Tools keeps coming up in my conversations in building AI that's
00:24:07.550 --> 00:24:11.350
human-centric, designed to strip away the busy work and let experienced builders
00:24:11.350 --> 00:24:12.850
like you do what they're actually good at.
00:24:12.990 --> 00:24:15.890
And here's the thing that gets me. The average worker takes about five and a
00:24:15.890 --> 00:24:20.210
half hours a week just looking for project data. That's a full day every week
00:24:20.210 --> 00:24:21.950
lost to digging through files and folders.
00:24:22.330 --> 00:24:26.650
So Trunk Tools is tackling that head on. Check the link in the description to learn more. 100%.
00:24:27.516 --> 00:24:31.056
Well, and let's talk a little bit about SaaS and the state of SaaS,
00:24:31.216 --> 00:24:32.236
because I think, you know,
00:24:32.476 --> 00:24:38.236
part of an underlying assumption in kind of the software space is that each
00:24:38.236 --> 00:24:43.356
of these companies have a moat around their tech stack, around the time to build.
00:24:43.696 --> 00:24:47.836
And all of that's being challenged by a variety of different kind of,
00:24:48.336 --> 00:24:51.996
well, whether it be, you know, the kind of citizen development happening or
00:24:51.996 --> 00:24:55.696
just for engineers themselves to kind of spin up new apps.
00:24:55.696 --> 00:25:02.956
So when you look at some of those challenges, I guess, what do you see as the
00:25:02.956 --> 00:25:05.116
future, Cliff Sass? How does that evolve?
00:25:05.796 --> 00:25:12.836
Yeah, I think no one knows. So, right, part of anchoring us in the early part
00:25:12.836 --> 00:25:17.476
of a decade-long process or potentially longer is you just don't know.
00:25:17.676 --> 00:25:21.596
What you probably do know, though, and I quote Satya Nadella,
00:25:21.716 --> 00:25:27.336
right, the CEO of Microsoft, is that one way of looking at apps is business
00:25:27.336 --> 00:25:28.956
logic on top of a database.
00:25:29.196 --> 00:25:33.356
And agents can sit on top of the database and replace the business logic that
00:25:33.356 --> 00:25:35.536
was in SaaS. Now, fair enough.
00:25:35.776 --> 00:25:39.156
The moats that they have, especially larger companies, but really anyone,
00:25:39.336 --> 00:25:41.636
isn't just the tech. It isn't just the software.
00:25:41.856 --> 00:25:45.236
It's the relationships they have. It's the trust they have.
00:25:45.476 --> 00:25:49.976
It's the kind of built out familiarity with how to do things.
00:25:50.116 --> 00:25:53.456
So the moat's probably a little bit stronger than people might think.
00:25:54.172 --> 00:25:58.652
What really has started to hurt is if you sell on a per-seat basis,
00:25:59.272 --> 00:26:02.952
are you going to be able to grow the number of seats per account?
00:26:03.392 --> 00:26:06.092
And probably not. And in fact, people are going to say, well,
00:26:06.192 --> 00:26:11.212
if I can string up an agent to do this for me, maybe I don't need 10 licenses. Maybe I just need two.
00:26:11.492 -->
00:26:15.492
It's definitely why ServiceNow, Salesforce, and some of those other folks had
00:26:15.492 --> 00:26:17.172
a rough week a couple weeks ago.
00:26:17.472 --> 00:26:23.212
So I think the economics of AI, sorry, of SaaS are up for grabs a little bit.
00:26:23.212 --> 00:26:28.932
You're hearing things like, let's do a new business model where we charge per outcome.
00:26:29.592 --> 00:26:32.972
That's a really tough one. I get why people are saying that,
00:26:33.132 --> 00:26:37.312
because agents are supposed to do stuff as opposed to just be there for you to use.
00:26:37.532 --> 00:26:39.552
The problem is nobody can budget for that.
00:26:41.472 --> 00:26:47.052
You'll hear developers and startup founders talk about $10,000 AWS bills because
00:26:47.052 --> 00:26:49.792
someone wrote something wrong or they couldn't deal with it.
00:26:49.792 --> 00:26:54.452
And I've heard contractors say the same thing when they went on to AWS or Azure.
00:26:54.632 --> 00:26:58.972
They were really surprised because they thought they were going to spend X and they spent more.
00:26:59.192 --> 00:27:01.512
And more to the point, they just don't know how much they're going to spend.
00:27:01.672 --> 00:27:07.552
So this per-sip, this per-use idea, I think they're going to be industries where that makes sense.
00:27:07.712 --> 00:27:10.832
And like customer support is where it's seeing some success.
00:27:11.332 --> 00:27:14.912
I think that beyond that, I think people want to know what they're paying.
00:27:15.072 --> 00:27:18.232
And they'd actually rather pay a little more than have surprising months.
00:27:18.792 --> 00:27:22.292
So yeah, I think I just gave you a word salad to say, we don't know.
00:27:22.772 --> 00:27:26.632
It's 2026 is a tough year to make a prediction like that.
00:27:26.732 --> 00:27:30.132
And obviously people are confidently doing so because they think it's their
00:27:30.132 --> 00:27:31.792
job, but I think no one knows.
00:27:32.872 --> 00:27:36.092
I think one thing we do know is that I think it's going to take...
00:27:37.014 --> 00:27:42.994
Some real kind of advances in, in various use cases or like just business model
00:27:42.994 --> 00:27:48.834
creativity to validate some of the valuations that had historically been in the sector.
00:27:49.034 --> 00:27:54.594
Right. And so, I mean, I've said to you, and I appreciate you're not prompting
00:27:54.594 --> 00:27:57.994
me, but I'll go out and say it. I don't know how you allocate capital right now.
00:27:58.374 --> 00:28:02.974
Yeah. I don't know how you, unless you're investing in someone in Silicon Valley,
00:28:03.114 --> 00:28:04.474
who's doing some frontier research.
00:28:04.754 --> 00:28:09.734
I don't know how a VC does what they do. I mean, they're paid the big bucks to figure that out.
00:28:09.894 --> 00:28:13.714
So God bless them. But right now, you don't know what the cost basis will be.
00:28:13.894 --> 00:28:16.314
You don't know what your growth is going to be.
00:28:16.614 --> 00:28:21.094
Everyone says they're going to have a billion dollar business because VCs require that. Okay.
00:28:21.714 --> 00:28:27.654
You can't have $50 billion businesses in construction. I think you get one, maybe two.
00:28:28.514 --> 00:28:32.394
So long-winded way of saying, I think the
00:28:32.394 --> 00:28:35.414
financing of software companies is going
00:28:35.414 --> 00:28:38.154
to have a rough year for the same reason that i
00:28:38.154 --> 00:28:42.114
just said is you don't really know well i
00:28:42.114 --> 00:28:44.974
think it does it changes some of the dynamics of of the
00:28:44.974 --> 00:28:48.574
the build versus buy decisions and equations in
00:28:48.574 --> 00:28:53.174
a lot of these businesses right like you know i came from an opportunity where
00:28:53.174 --> 00:28:58.834
in in a gcc we were analyzing that kind of build versus buy and historically
00:28:58.834 --> 00:29:03.274
have been fairly anti building internally because of the lack of kind of product
00:29:03.274 --> 00:29:06.474
management understanding in some of these contractors.
00:29:07.394 --> 00:29:11.094
And, but I think as long, and you're seeing this, right, you're seeing Suffolk
00:29:11.094 --> 00:29:15.694
hire product managers and folks with AI titles and data analysts.
00:29:15.854 --> 00:29:18.394
And so as you bring some of that talent on board.
00:29:19.928 --> 00:29:23.048
Build concept looks more attainable. How do you look at that?
00:29:23.448 --> 00:29:29.068
I think you're 100% right. I think that the CIO role needs to finally be strategic
00:29:29.068 --> 00:29:31.428
in GCs as opposed to being functional.
00:29:31.768 --> 00:29:35.428
I think it needs to be literally C-suite instead of reporting to the CFO.
00:29:35.848 --> 00:29:37.868
I mean, look, every company is going to make up their own mind,
00:29:37.868 --> 00:29:42.068
but to do what you just described, which I think is absolutely true.
00:29:42.248 --> 00:29:46.928
And the reality is that other companies in other industries have had strong
00:29:46.928 --> 00:29:52.488
CIOs for decades and they build their own mini apps on top of big platforms.
00:29:52.628 --> 00:29:57.448
This has been going on forever, but they have a group that is dedicated to that,
00:29:57.528 --> 00:30:00.828
that's good at it, that has the right rules, has the right incentives and all that.
00:30:00.908 --> 00:30:04.648
If you're trying to run that kind of an activity with people that came off the
00:30:04.648 --> 00:30:10.388
field and are thinking with the same risk profile and the same sensibility of
00:30:10.388 --> 00:30:11.968
putting a building, it's just not the same.
00:30:11.968 --> 00:30:15.948
So I think that AI is going to, just like other really big changes,
00:30:16.148 --> 00:30:21.268
you're going to need to think about who am I staffing and what do I think is strategic for us?
00:30:21.568 --> 00:30:26.988
And I think that having a CIO
who can look at the business and say,
00:30:27.128 --> 00:30:29.948
here's where we should be and here's where we should invest.
00:30:30.508 --> 00:30:34.568
Obviously at the discretion of the CEO and presumably the board or something
00:30:34.568 --> 00:30:39.528
like that, but I think that's going to become a much more important thing than it has been in the past.
00:30:39.528 --> 00:30:42.608
I don't disagree with you on that.
00:30:42.968 --> 00:30:49.168
What percentage of companies in this construction blob are.
00:30:50.103 --> 00:30:53.683
Actually have a cio yeah i don't know more
00:30:53.683 --> 00:30:56.723
than i thought more than i thought but the question isn't only
00:30:56.723 --> 00:30:59.563
whether someone has a business card with cio on it the question
00:30:59.563 --> 00:31:02.483
is who do they report to so if they report to the cfo
00:31:02.483 --> 00:31:05.743
then they're not really i mean i don't want to cast any aspersions on people
00:31:05.743 --> 00:31:08.963
with that title but it means that they're structured in a way where winning
00:31:08.963 --> 00:31:13.783
is harder than it should be no they have to like yeah they're just pushing uphill
00:31:13.783 --> 00:31:17.263
every day right we're pushing against someone who's looking at cost and risk
00:31:17.263 --> 00:31:19.843
which is great but ultimately innovation and speed.
00:31:20.083 --> 00:31:25.123
Yeah. And what's the upside? A great example, if I may, one of the things that
00:31:25.123 --> 00:31:28.383
I think you're going to see people, and I've heard glimmerings of this,
00:31:28.863 --> 00:31:33.843
knowledge can be a strategic asset, knowing how to do things and capturing that
00:31:33.843 --> 00:31:34.823
and doing things with it.
00:31:34.863 --> 00:31:37.523
It's not so strategic when you're just showing it to other people,
00:31:37.523 --> 00:31:41.823
but if you're codifying how we do things, because AI can do that for you and
00:31:41.823 --> 00:31:45.983
can serve it up and can see what someone's working on and real knowledge management,
00:31:45.983 --> 00:31:49.603
as opposed to an Excel spreadsheet with less lessons learned on it.
00:31:49.803 --> 00:31:55.583
That starts to mean that you're not just covering risk, which is the first step,
00:31:55.723 --> 00:31:58.903
but you're actually creating new opportunities. Yeah.
00:32:00.503 --> 00:32:06.203
The challenge I have with nothing you described necessarily,
00:32:06.203 --> 00:32:11.803
it's I wonder what percentage of companies,
00:32:11.803 --> 00:32:14.763
the top 100 ENR, you know
00:32:14.763 --> 00:32:18.403
versus the rest of the the industry
00:32:18.403 --> 00:32:25.643
from a revenue versus versus total companies and or you call it top 1000 right
00:32:25.643 --> 00:32:30.283
and what i'm getting at is that i believe there is a massive chunk of this industry
00:32:30.283 --> 00:32:37.583
that many many many owners actually have to deal with that will never ever budget for a
cio.
00:32:38.455 --> 00:32:45.215
And that because they don't have the time, they don't have the vision,
00:32:45.315 --> 00:32:49.195
they don't have the awareness, they see it as a drag, a distraction.
00:32:49.695 --> 00:32:55.535
And so it's almost like the separation gap just continues to occur.
00:32:55.735 --> 00:33:00.095
I don't know, but that's that small business, large business, sophisticated.
00:33:00.655 --> 00:33:03.815
Now, I believe there's transition occurring, right? All of a sudden,
00:33:03.975 --> 00:33:08.795
that young, hungry entrepreneur who now is experimenting with Claude Bott or
00:33:08.795 --> 00:33:12.915
Pickett, all of a sudden has the most badass estimating spreadsheet because
00:33:12.915 --> 00:33:18.055
they were able to just put all this intelligence in there. That's fun. That's a game changer.
00:33:18.375 --> 00:33:22.255
Don't you think this is one of those moments where it's worth remembering how
00:33:22.255 --> 00:33:27.275
many different project types there are and how many different GC focuses there are?
00:33:27.475 --> 00:33:31.775
So this is where the talking about construction generally kind of breaks down
00:33:31.775 --> 00:33:36.215
a little bit. But if you're building the same type of box in the same area over
00:33:36.215 --> 00:33:37.255
and over again, you're right.
00:33:37.495 --> 00:33:41.255
You kind of know it already. As opposed to building really big,
00:33:41.335 --> 00:33:44.095
complex buildings, God forbid it's a data center.
00:33:44.435 --> 00:33:47.535
So I do think that you're going to find a real difference.
00:33:47.755 --> 00:33:50.735
And it might – look, at the end of the day, the company has to make up their
00:33:50.735 --> 00:33:53.515
mind about how they're competing and who they're competing against.
00:33:53.815 --> 00:33:57.675
Yeah, what the market sector is. Yeah. I mean, and it matters more now because
00:33:57.675 --> 00:34:01.195
there's opportunities to be that much better, but it's still going to be an expense.
00:34:01.555 --> 00:34:04.475
Yeah. And if that expense really doesn't buy you very much, then they're right
00:34:04.475 --> 00:34:05.155
to do what they're doing.
00:34:05.335 --> 00:34:09.815
Or more importantly, if they're saying within the next year or two years,
00:34:09.975 --> 00:34:14.615
I don't trust that our adoption isn't going to create more risk and expense than it's going to save.
00:34:14.755 --> 00:34:18.155
Then maybe they say, we're going to hang on and just do what we do and take
00:34:18.155 --> 00:34:19.115
more people out to dinner.
00:34:19.811 --> 00:34:24.051
But I think that's where, I mean, we are in such a period of disruption that
00:34:24.051 --> 00:34:25.851
I think we're going to have some real separation.
00:34:26.271 --> 00:34:28.751
You know, I think we've gone through a period of, I don't know.
00:34:29.471 --> 00:34:33.211
34 plus years of, I don't know why I picked 34.
00:34:33.411 --> 00:34:36.511
It's a very specific number. but you know 30 plus years
00:34:36.511 --> 00:34:39.851
where you know the the big boys
00:34:39.851 --> 00:34:43.691
have gotten bigger the regionals have everyone's gotten bigger and obviously
00:34:43.691 --> 00:34:49.031
but there's a bit of parity in terms of end product but i do think that's coming
00:34:49.031 --> 00:34:53.391
to an end because i i could see and i've made this prediction before obviously
00:34:53.391 --> 00:34:58.411
aecom you know acquiring consigli kind of took the the lid off that box but.
00:34:59.043 --> 00:35:04.123
If a contractor is fairly, you know, forward thinking and maybe doesn't have
00:35:04.123 --> 00:35:06.443
that CIO talent, they go buy it.
00:35:06.643 --> 00:35:12.643
They go buy a business on the tech side that is going to kind of fundamentally
00:35:12.643 --> 00:35:16.183
enable a differentiation in their end product,
00:35:16.183 --> 00:35:21.503
but also close the gaps in terms of internal capabilities to think through strategically
00:35:21.503 --> 00:35:22.863
how to leverage these technologies.
00:35:22.863 --> 00:35:27.023
Is they're going to be in a different place than a contractor who maybe historically
00:35:27.023 --> 00:35:31.863
has a CFO, has an uncle, has a renovation business, like that historical model.
00:35:32.123 --> 00:35:34.803
So I do think we're kind of coming upon that time.
00:35:35.103 --> 00:35:37.723
I think you're right. I just think not for every segment.
00:35:38.043 --> 00:35:40.963
I think there's going to be some segments where they are. I agree, construction's big.
00:35:41.303 --> 00:35:44.803
That said, you know, what's funny is we've just worked on a project with an
00:35:44.803 --> 00:35:47.643
aggregates company, and they're everything you just described.
00:35:47.823 --> 00:35:52.663
Like somebody founded it, and it's guys with big trucks moving lots of rocks.
00:35:52.663 --> 00:35:57.383
I mean, I don't want to oversimplify it, but the thing is, if one of those breaks
00:35:57.383 --> 00:36:00.403
down, they can tell you how much money they lose per hour.
00:36:00.763 --> 00:36:04.143
So we built a machine learning model that took their data, which they thought
00:36:04.143 --> 00:36:07.343
was really bad, and they were right, it was less than they wanted it to be.
00:36:07.483 --> 00:36:11.463
But we were able to say, I can't tell you what broke, but I can tell you it's
00:36:11.463 --> 00:36:12.383
one of these five things.
00:36:12.623 --> 00:36:16.583
Which means that instead of having to drive 50 miles out to a job site,
00:36:16.763 --> 00:36:20.143
identify what it was, drive back, get what they need, and then basically take
00:36:20.143 --> 00:36:21.543
two days to go fix something.
00:36:22.083 --> 00:36:24.623
You know, at every hour, thousands of dollars have lost money.
00:36:24.943 --> 00:36:27.203
They're able to go just drive straight out there and say, okay,
00:36:27.283 --> 00:36:28.323
I've gotten the truck what I
need.
00:36:28.895 --> 00:36:31.375
I think there's a lot of opportunity for that kind of thing.
00:36:31.475 --> 00:36:36.795
And we use AI right now to pretty narrowly mean generative AI and chatbots,
00:36:36.915 --> 00:36:38.455
really. But it's a big tent.
00:36:38.715 --> 00:36:42.915
There's machine learning in there that you can, if you don't think I need this
00:36:42.915 --> 00:36:47.115
to be like software, where I press a button and it gives me the exact answer.
00:36:47.235 --> 00:36:51.595
If you say, if you can make my decisions better, this isn't quite the parkour
00:36:51.595 --> 00:36:52.995
vision thing, but it's sort of like that.
00:36:52.995 --> 00:36:58.875
If you can give me the ability to reduce decision time or more efficiently make
00:36:58.875 --> 00:37:02.955
decisions, I'm still making the decision, but it's faster and we've saved money.
00:37:03.075 --> 00:37:05.015
So I think there's an opportunity there too.
00:37:05.235 --> 00:37:08.295
It's just the right person has to meet the right person to tell them that because
00:37:08.295 --> 00:37:12.495
very few people running an aggregates company are saying, you know what I think we need?
00:37:12.515 --> 00:37:15.475
We need some ML in here, right alongside the old cowbell.
00:37:15.475 --> 00:37:18.455
So I think that the other thing that there's an opportunity for,
00:37:18.555 --> 00:37:19.875
I'm obviously biased here,
00:37:20.075 --> 00:37:25.435
but just like contractors bring in consultants for engineering they don't know,
00:37:25.635 --> 00:37:29.155
whether it's MEP or something like that, there's an opportunity here to do what
00:37:29.155 --> 00:37:33.235
the rest of the economy does and say, I don't know AI that well.
00:37:33.335 --> 00:37:35.595
Let's bring in somebody to help us out.
00:37:36.855 --> 00:37:40.715
Yeah. Yeah, that's interesting. So let me ask this question.
00:37:40.855 --> 00:37:43.715
You are building a SaaS product, the link.
00:37:43.715 --> 00:37:47.075
It helps provide kind of clarity in the spec space and
00:37:47.075 --> 00:37:50.615
you know from you know our kind of history together
00:37:50.615 --> 00:37:56.355
i think you know specs is is a thing that hasn't gotten a lot of sas love it's
00:37:56.355 --> 00:38:00.495
maybe getting a bit more these days but kind of in the light of the previous
00:38:00.495 --> 00:38:05.795
conversation we've had around the challenges in the sas category how are you
00:38:05.795 --> 00:38:08.615
thinking about building a sas product.
00:38:09.835 --> 00:38:14.115
And you know you're kind of layering in some some kind of strategic services
00:38:14.115 --> 00:38:18.295
around ai consulting you actually you know the link got a shout out from a previous
00:38:18.295 --> 00:38:21.855
guest the steve little from fresh market was was just mentioning some of the
00:38:21.855 --> 00:38:24.915
tools that he really likes interacting with and mentioned the link is one of them.
00:38:25.879 --> 00:38:31.739
So I guess walk me through how you, the marriage between your kind of industry
00:38:31.739 --> 00:38:35.739
view of AI and how you're baking that into what you're building with the link.
00:38:36.299 --> 00:38:40.579
Yeah, I think this is everything I just said about this being an interesting
00:38:40.579 --> 00:38:43.179
year for SaaS applies here.
00:38:43.379 --> 00:38:46.659
So it's, you know, if you've got a product that's, especially if you don't have
00:38:46.659 --> 00:38:51.759
a ton of distribution, like a Procore or a Kahua, now is the time to say,
00:38:51.879 --> 00:38:55.979
how is this enhancing what I have already and maybe build a little less than you might.
00:38:56.499 --> 00:39:01.299
Like before you go build an entirely new category of product type,
00:39:01.539 --> 00:39:07.419
maybe hang on a little bit and see where the world ends at the end of this year or early next year.
00:39:07.499 --> 00:39:11.239
I think that we don't quite know what an agent's going to be able to do.
00:39:11.459 --> 00:39:14.879
The other thing that we've spent a lot of time on is aggregating data.
00:39:15.219 --> 00:39:21.439
So a database of usually publicly available specs that we're able to get from
00:39:21.439 --> 00:39:27.919
various places that we've categorized and really broken apart so that as AI
00:39:27.919 --> 00:39:29.639
gets more powerful and more useful,
00:39:29.979 --> 00:39:33.439
you have a, whether you call it a mode or just a differentiator,
00:39:33.599 --> 00:39:38.419
the ability to assess a spec based on 10,000 specs that, you know,
00:39:38.499 --> 00:39:42.279
that you're looking at, that you've got in your database. I think that's one opportunity.
00:39:42.659 --> 00:39:47.279
If you asked me that question in February of 2027, I promise you I'll have a
00:39:47.279 --> 00:39:50.719
different answer because it's just, we just don't know. Like it's.
00:39:51.374 --> 00:39:57.614
The fact that in December of last year, I couldn't have told you that co-work
00:39:57.614 --> 00:39:59.094
and open claw and those other things
00:39:59.094 --> 00:40:02.554
would come out and would be as big a difference as I think they are.
00:40:02.794 --> 00:40:06.894
And I think this year is going to be, this is the year of the agent.
00:40:07.034 --> 00:40:10.834
I don't know what that means, but the agent tooling, like making it so that
00:40:10.834 --> 00:40:15.194
people don't have to know anything about AI really to be able to just tell it
00:40:15.194 --> 00:40:18.914
what they want, go through some work to make sure it gets them what they want.
00:40:19.014 --> 00:40:23.154
But all that's using normal language. All that's just talking to it patiently,
00:40:23.154 --> 00:40:26.314
I have to admit, but nevertheless, just talking to it.
00:40:27.894 --> 00:40:32.694
How many OpenClaw instances do you have running right now? None. None.
00:40:33.954 --> 00:40:38.174
Lars? I didn't want to go through the, that's a great
question. OpenClaw,
00:40:38.374 --> 00:40:41.694
it means that you've decided to somehow either create a virtual machine,
00:40:41.694 --> 00:40:45.934
which is on its own, a little bit of a risk, or go and buy a Mac mini,
00:40:46.074 --> 00:40:48.314
which have been running out because so many people are doing it.
00:40:48.454 --> 00:40:50.014
I didn't see the value in that.
00:40:50.534 --> 00:40:54.434
What I've done instead is really dig into co-work and build a bunch of skills
00:40:54.434 --> 00:40:59.854
and plugins and so on and so forth, because I think OpenClaw is going to become very co-work-like.
00:41:00.034 --> 00:41:03.914
They'll probably do some unique things. They can do images, which Claude can't.
00:41:04.194 --> 00:41:08.714
But nevertheless, it's going to be in the same vein, and I expect it probably by the end of March.
00:41:09.693 --> 00:41:13.013
Yeah, I have one instance of open claw on a virtual machine.
00:41:13.493 --> 00:41:18.033
And, you know, I've kind of used it as purely an experiment to kind of see what
00:41:18.033 --> 00:41:20.873
it's possible of doing and are capable of doing.
00:41:21.273 --> 00:41:24.873
And, you know, mainly from like a podcast production standpoint,
00:41:24.873 --> 00:41:27.913
it's pretty helpful in doing research and those things.
00:41:28.113 --> 00:41:32.493
But, you know, it's not cheap because it, you know, it chews up tokens.
00:41:32.493 --> 00:41:35.393
Yeah, because the big thing is memory, right?
00:41:35.593 --> 00:41:40.293
And so that's a big kind of database that it's kind of maintaining from a memory standpoint.
00:41:40.613 --> 00:41:44.333
Well, you talk about, that's a really good thing, if you don't mind, I'll just dive into.
00:41:44.553 --> 00:41:47.453
And it's my point a moment ago about we don't know where we're going to be.
00:41:47.633 --> 00:41:51.933
One of the things that makes any AI model a lot smarter is if it can think longer.
00:41:52.153 --> 00:41:55.193
And the reasons they can't think longer is because that costs tokens.
00:41:55.673 --> 00:41:59.673
Every time a model comes out, and honestly, every time the chips come out,
00:41:59.673 --> 00:42:03.133
the cost per token goes down by like an order of magnitude.
00:42:03.593 --> 00:42:07.993
So I think what you're going to find is towards the end of this year into next
00:42:07.993 --> 00:42:11.853
year, as these big data centers come online, and then more of them next year,
00:42:11.953 --> 00:42:12.733
and then more of them the year.
00:42:12.833 --> 00:42:15.733
I mean, they're spending, the hyperscalers, the companies we know,
00:42:15.833 --> 00:42:21.133
the metas and so on, are spending something like $650 billion, which is wild.
00:42:21.453 --> 00:42:25.513
The 2008 bailout was $850, $900, something like that.
00:42:25.613 --> 00:42:28.333
I mean, We're almost spending as much money on data centers,
00:42:28.573 --> 00:42:31.093
just those companies, as the U.S.
00:42:31.253 --> 00:42:33.713
Government did to not quite get us out of the 2008.
00:42:34.393 --> 00:42:42.153
Like, if only, if only. But my point is the magnitude of spend is utterly unprecedented.
00:42:42.453 --> 00:42:46.093
Even inflation adjusted, the highways didn't cost this much at all.
00:42:46.293 --> 00:42:50.193
Forget about in one year. The railroads didn't cost it. It's unprecedented how
00:42:50.193 --> 00:42:55.213
much money is being spent. So I think that one of the unlocks over time will
00:42:55.213 --> 00:42:58.913
be having agents that can run for a long time and not break the bank.
00:42:59.033 --> 00:43:02.533
Right now, you're right. If you were to get open claw and just let it run.
00:43:03.329 --> 00:43:06.909
I hope you host your own model because it's going to be a mortgage payment.
00:43:07.209 --> 00:43:11.029
Will that overcome the quantity of available compute?
00:43:11.189 --> 00:43:17.749
Will that overcome the actual cost of compute with interacting with it?
00:43:17.789 --> 00:43:25.369
I was reading a thread and this gentleman calculated every time you ask Chachapiti
00:43:25.369 --> 00:43:30.749
or Claude a question, and if you look at the actual compute cost of that question.
00:43:31.641 --> 00:43:36.741
And if you were to actually be charged the actual cost, it's much higher than your $20 a month, right?
00:43:36.961 --> 00:43:41.361
And right now, everyone's in this, like, market penetration phase attempting
00:43:41.361 --> 00:43:43.101
to kind of gobble up users.
00:43:43.421 --> 00:43:46.321
But at some point, is that kind of the calculus they're making?
00:43:46.461 --> 00:43:50.721
Is like, if the quantity of compute is enough, then that cost comes down over time?
00:43:51.241 --> 00:43:55.141
And they've depreciated all of their spend and so on and so on.
00:43:55.261 --> 00:44:00.321
I think the idea here is just like AWS was loss-making until it wasn't,
00:44:00.321 --> 00:44:04.421
And just like Uber was loss-making until it wasn't, their thinking is,
00:44:04.601 --> 00:44:10.021
we want to get the whole world on one of the platforms, preferably the one who's spending the money.
00:44:10.221 --> 00:44:15.341
And at that point, you know, again, every time NVIDIA comes out with a new chip,
00:44:15.601 --> 00:44:21.601
the most recent one, Vera Rubin, is 40x faster and more effective than what
00:44:21.601 --> 00:44:24.221
it's replacing. And everyone thought Blackwell was the second coming.
00:44:24.421 --> 00:44:28.981
But also, beyond NVIDIA, there's companies that are making chips that are specific
00:44:28.981 --> 00:44:32.101
to inference. And the difference being training is when you do the training
00:44:32.101 --> 00:44:33.201
and then you publish a model.
00:44:33.501 --> 00:44:36.441
And that used to be all the expense. But now that everybody's trying to use
00:44:36.441 --> 00:44:39.461
all these tokens, it's actually on the usage, on the inference side.
00:44:39.841 --> 00:44:40.901
That's what
this, I don't know
00:44:40.901 --> 00:44:43.781
if you're familiar with the Cerebrus thing that OpenAI just announced.
00:44:44.101 --> 00:44:46.821
But they have their first data center with these. And those are.
00:44:47.381 --> 00:44:50.081
The entire data center is made just for inference.
00:44:50.301 --> 00:44:54.401
Well, the implication is that the cost of using them is going to continue to
00:44:54.401 --> 00:44:55.481
just drop through the floor.
00:44:55.861 --> 00:44:58.601
At some point, everyone's like, you know, it'll be too cheap to meter.
00:44:58.601 --> 00:45:01.441
They've said that before about other things, and I'm not sure I buy that.
00:45:01.661 --> 00:45:06.061
But I do think it'll get so cheap that it won't be the major consideration.
00:45:07.481 --> 00:45:11.821
So I know you've got a hard stop, and I want to focus maybe the last few minutes
00:45:11.821 --> 00:45:18.481
we have on, you know, there's a portion of our audience that is on the field ops side.
00:45:18.621 --> 00:45:23.181
And I think, at least looking at the data, we don't have a ground-up challenge
00:45:23.181 --> 00:45:26.661
in getting kind of users to adopt some of these technologies.
00:45:26.661 --> 00:45:31.721
But we do have like a senior leader and C-suite, which we have some listeners in that seat.
00:45:31.861 --> 00:45:34.421
So let's talk to them specifically. And we did a little bit before.
00:45:35.918 --> 00:45:39.638
They listen to this day after. What do you think a VP of Ops,
00:45:39.818 --> 00:45:44.378
a COO, CFO, what do they, I mean, you mentioned it, just start using some of this stuff.
00:45:44.718 --> 00:45:49.438
But from an organizational strategy standpoint, what are the practical steps
00:45:49.438 --> 00:45:54.578
to thinking through how they need to interact with where we're at in this curve?
00:45:55.198 --> 00:45:59.978
Yeah. And the tough part about a question like that is people really are all over the place.
00:46:00.178 --> 00:46:03.418
I mean, there are companies that where the leadership has already done a policy
00:46:03.418 --> 00:46:06.438
and they've done training and they're thinking about it and they've got internal
00:46:06.438 --> 00:46:11.698
people building custom GPTs and you've got other people where they haven't and
00:46:11.698 --> 00:46:16.498
they maybe put a policy out that was pretty simple and was very much about security.
00:46:17.218 --> 00:46:20.278
Let me re-contextualize that because I think you're right.
00:46:20.618 --> 00:46:25.678
So I think the scenario is this. I think it's a large, we'll say GC in this
00:46:25.678 --> 00:46:31.078
instance, who is, you know, their AI strategy is mainly from a risk management standpoint.
00:46:31.158 --> 00:46:35.298
So they're really focusing on governance. They're focusing on what not to do.
00:46:35.938 --> 00:46:40.158
How would you respond to that company? Yeah, I think that there's a few things.
00:46:40.338 --> 00:46:44.918
One of them is, like you said, get using it, but also get out there and talk
00:46:44.918 --> 00:46:48.658
to people and bring in people, whether it's a consultant, whether it's somebody.
00:46:48.778 --> 00:46:51.238
I mean, often I'll just talk to people, give them an hour and say,
00:46:51.318 --> 00:46:52.418
hey, let's talk about what you're doing.
00:46:52.758 --> 00:46:56.878
I've got a number of GCs that I just once a month, once every other month,
00:46:57.098 --> 00:47:00.218
someone in there and I'll just walk them through what I'm seeing,
00:47:00.518 --> 00:47:03.938
right? And right now with co-work, obviously, I've got a little bit of a bee in my bonnet about it.
00:47:04.018 --> 00:47:07.338
So I've been doing a fair amount of that type of conversation to say,
00:47:07.458 --> 00:47:09.638
this is early, but it's going to mean something.
00:47:09.678 --> 00:47:12.898
And it's actually going to be useful in a way that a chatbot is not.
00:47:13.278 --> 00:47:14.798
But I do think that this is...
00:47:15.825 --> 00:47:18.925
Start thinking about what real
00:47:18.925 --> 00:47:23.785
change of process might, what value real change of process might mean.
00:47:24.105 --> 00:47:30.445
And for me, one of the big ones that seems obvious is the chain of handoffs
00:47:30.445 --> 00:47:32.705
between design intent and handover,
00:47:32.725 --> 00:47:36.705
where you've got this information that gets transformed and people lose a thing
00:47:36.705 --> 00:47:39.225
or they do a thing and they say a thing and they were supposed to do this,
00:47:39.345 --> 00:47:40.145
but they didn't quite do that.
00:47:40.445 --> 00:47:45.285
All that stuff, the amount of risk that's still in that transmission of information,
00:47:45.605 --> 00:47:47.225
I think is unreasonable.
00:47:47.945 --> 00:47:51.685
And yeah, there's contracts and people are responsible for things and they have
00:47:51.685 --> 00:47:55.005
economic incentives for doing as little as possible at certain steps.
00:47:55.245 --> 00:47:58.985
I don't know who that might be, but maybe the people that wrote the contract.
00:47:59.445 --> 00:48:02.985
But the point is, fair enough that that's true, but nevertheless,
00:48:02.985 --> 00:48:07.005
this stuff should be a lot more controllable and visible than it is.
00:48:07.085 --> 00:48:08.745
And I think that AI can help with that.
00:48:08.985 --> 00:48:13.265
And a lot of our processes when it comes to moving documents and data back and
00:48:13.265 --> 00:48:18.425
forth look indistinguishable from when you were couriering prints to each other. That's correct.
00:48:18.685 --> 00:48:21.885
It's a PDF and you're emailing it, but okay, if you swap that,
00:48:22.005 --> 00:48:24.145
the transmission out, it's the same process.
00:48:24.385 --> 00:48:28.665
It's the same. And I'm not sure that needs to be true. You can absolutely audit
00:48:28.665 --> 00:48:32.165
custody and all the things that a printed paper might help you,
00:48:32.245 -->
00:48:33.345
in fact, way better than that.
00:48:33.725 --> 00:48:37.505
So I think that asking where's our risk and where are we losing money and where
00:48:37.505 --> 00:48:42.065
are our claims coming from and really saying, is AI able to help us tighten
00:48:42.065 --> 00:48:46.765
that up and lose less money from claims or from delays or from rework or from,
00:48:46.825 --> 00:48:48.285
everybody talks about reworking it.
00:48:49.169 --> 00:48:51.769
It's really harder than people think it is. But nevertheless,
00:48:51.789 --> 00:48:54.309
that's a good thing to start thinking about.
00:48:54.569 --> 00:48:58.429
And back to my point about the more you use it yourself, you're going to have
00:48:58.429 --> 00:49:02.129
an intuition to say, okay, maybe I don't know AI that well yet,
00:49:02.249 --> 00:49:03.629
but I really know that problem.
00:49:03.789 --> 00:49:07.789
And if I can get an intuition for the tool, I can start seeing where,
00:49:08.289 --> 00:49:10.369
all right, you know what, we're not going to retool everything today,
00:49:10.429 --> 00:49:15.609
but I want to inject it in these steps or I want this person to spearhead doing that on a project.
00:49:15.609 --> 00:49:20.489
There's always the case that there's that PM or that superintendent who absolutely
00:49:20.489 --> 00:49:24.089
loves technology and is the first, you know, he's like Mikey with the cereal.
00:49:25.069 --> 00:49:28.489
Finding those people and really leveraging them. One of the things that I'll
00:49:28.489 --> 00:49:35.189
also say, I do a lot of training for contractors, but also for associations and so on.
00:49:36.029 --> 00:49:40.869
The degree to which you can get 20, 50, maybe a hundred's a little bit much
00:49:40.869 --> 00:49:44.409
and get them talking about what they've done in a kind of moderated session
00:49:44.409 --> 00:49:46.769
where you say, all right, everyone, let's write a prompt and you do it on your
00:49:46.769 --> 00:49:49.049
phone. All right. What did you do? What did you do? What did you do?
00:49:49.899 --> 00:49:52.839
A couple of things happen. One is you realize more people are doing stuff than
00:49:52.839 --> 00:49:55.099
you thought, or maybe the other, you're like, what are you people been doing?
00:49:55.399 --> 00:49:58.759
But also they start to get ideas from each other because again,
00:49:58.899 --> 00:49:59.939
this is a creative group.
00:50:00.059 --> 00:50:04.719
These are people that anytime there's a problem, they want to find a tool and go fix it.
00:50:05.239 --> 00:50:08.799
So they're probably said, oh, if they got a little comfortable with it,
00:50:08.859 --> 00:50:12.399
they probably found some weird thing that they're using it for or some not so weird thing.
00:50:12.599 --> 00:50:15.559
So I think to the degree, you can start thinking about
00:50:15.559 --> 00:50:19.039
leveraging the creativity of your own people to
00:50:19.039 --> 00:50:21.859
to kind of inch each other up i think
that's super powerful and
00:50:21.859 --> 00:50:24.979
you've seen contractors do that with like hackathons or with meetings or
00:50:24.979 --> 00:50:27.699
whatever it might be it doesn't cost a lot you can do it
00:50:27.699 --> 00:50:30.559
usually on on you know in person is best
00:50:30.559 --> 00:50:33.479
but you do it on zoom if you need to i really
00:50:33.479 --> 00:50:36.399
like that it's almost it's like creating that spark of creativity
00:50:36.399 --> 00:50:39.199
and then kind of seeing where that goes and i've seen that even with
00:50:39.199 --> 00:50:42.459
my wife like she runs a small little co-schooling
00:50:42.459 --> 00:50:45.799
here in the richmond area and you
00:50:45.799 --> 00:50:48.639
know back and i started my kind of ai during early last
00:50:48.639 --> 00:50:51.979
year we i kind of walked through some of the use cases and
00:50:51.979 --> 00:50:54.939
now like we're trading back and forth it's like oh man you did this oh
00:50:54.939 --> 00:50:58.539
man i was able to do this and then running a home
00:50:58.539 --> 00:51:01.819
school this has to be transformational for her because
00:51:01.819 --> 00:51:04.579
like you're not stuck with wait wait who did what
00:51:04.579 --> 00:51:08.819
when it's like hang on a minute you know that's education
00:51:08.819 --> 00:51:11.819
i think there's a lot of opportunity yeah and she's
00:51:11.819 --> 00:51:14.699
you know the little the school has grown from like we
00:51:14.699 --> 00:51:18.099
had like 30 kids last year we have 48 kids
00:51:18.099 --> 00:51:21.339
this year but that's amazing so some of the parents are teaching themselves
00:51:21.339 --> 00:51:25.099
or teaching as well and part of the you know thing is like how do you manage
00:51:25.099 --> 00:51:29.819
like content and yeah in a very specific kind of methodology and and this is
00:51:29.819 --> 00:51:33.559
is enabling her to scale herself and in a way that she wasn't previously able
00:51:33.559 --> 00:51:37.139
to well this has been really helpful lars any final thoughts.
00:51:38.178 --> 00:51:41.818
No, you awesome. Thank you, bud. I'm pro core.
00:51:41.938 --> 00:51:46.798
I'm going to AI pro core or parkour myself here, parkour myself here.
00:51:46.998 --> 00:51:53.158
No, just, just love the perspective, love the sharing, love the experience.
00:51:53.158 --> 00:51:58.618
And I just, we are at this just very interesting time.
00:51:59.258 --> 00:52:04.638
Things are getting incredibly easier, but at the same time, it's like,
00:52:04.798 --> 00:52:06.058
it's also getting foggier.
00:52:06.058 --> 00:52:11.938
Yeah where is it going what what what what can it really be like and it's like
00:52:11.938 --> 00:52:15.618
just hold on let's watch let's see well and let's coat let's create it together
00:52:15.618 --> 00:52:19.598
together i mean at the end of the day this isn't this isn't the weather like
00:52:19.598 --> 00:52:23.218
we get to we get we get a say in how it gets used yes 100,
00:52:24.218 --> 00:52:25.958
well and here's the last question.
00:52:27.096 --> 00:52:30.556
How big of a prepper are you? Are you a doomer on this?
00:52:30.636 --> 00:52:36.176
Or do you see a hopeful future where we all are just skating on an amazing API?
00:52:36.556 --> 00:52:39.556
I think none of the above. I think it's going to be like everything else.
00:52:39.776 --> 00:52:41.036
It's going to make changes.
00:52:41.876 --> 00:52:43.296
Society is not going to collapse.
00:52:44.156 --> 00:52:47.536
We're going to find work for people. We absolutely will. This idea that,
00:52:47.776 --> 00:52:52.456
and there's an assumption that is in there. I'm really glad you asked that.
00:52:52.776 --> 00:52:55.756
People have talked about AI as if it's going to be general.
00:52:56.476 --> 00:53:00.936
I'm sorry, I know the lab guys have to say that, the open AIs and so on.
00:53:01.076 --> 00:53:07.196
I think they're radically underestimating how good the human mind is at dealing
00:53:07.196 --> 00:53:09.716
with new things and being literally general.
00:53:09.956 --> 00:53:14.096
I think we're going to have superhuman AI just like we've had superhuman calculators.
00:53:14.236 --> 00:53:18.376
And it's going to be amazing at some things and remarkably dumb at others for
00:53:18.376 --> 00:53:25.996
as long as I can think of. I think their use of the term general intelligence is just really narrow.
00:53:26.196 --> 00:53:31.356
And I think instruction is such a good illustration of how that's not true.
00:53:31.516 --> 00:53:36.336
Think of all of the implications that a PM, like something happens and they're
00:53:36.336 --> 00:53:38.676
immediately saying, well, that's going to happen and that's going to happen
00:53:38.676 --> 00:53:41.216
and I got to call that guy and got to make sure they have whatever.
00:53:41.216 --> 00:53:44.476
That sort of complexity there's it's
00:53:44.476 --> 00:53:47.496
it's it's not just knowing what might happen but it's knowing what's
00:53:47.496 --> 00:53:51.356
important and why it's important and the personality of the person you got to
00:53:51.356 --> 00:53:55.016
call first because god forbid you know what i mean like there's just knowing
00:53:55.016 --> 00:53:59.276
that that's the reality of of the economy whether it's in construction or somewhere
00:53:59.276 --> 00:54:03.936
else is it's a lot of people making decisions under uncertainty based on what
00:54:03.936 --> 00:54:07.156
they had for breakfast and only a human can really manage that.
00:54:07.336 --> 00:54:10.816
And I think AI can absolutely empower it. It can automate certain steps.
00:54:10.996 --> 00:54:13.676
And the final thing I'll add that we didn't talk about is.
00:54:14.358 --> 00:54:18.478
Being in the work is part of getting the work done. So this implication that
00:54:18.478 --> 00:54:23.458
you can automate everything implies that humans were just approving stuff or
00:54:23.458 --> 00:54:27.738
just running through steps, but they didn't think along the way.
00:54:28.398 --> 00:54:32.498
Doing things makes you're being creative, even if it's in small ways.
00:54:32.798 --> 00:54:36.578
Being in the work is the only way that you can approve certain types of work.
00:54:36.778 --> 00:54:40.618
So just having the human in the loop be an approver at the end,
00:54:40.758 --> 00:54:44.218
there's going to be processes where that's appropriate. I think people overestimate
00:54:44.218 --> 00:54:45.218
how many of them there are.
00:54:45.458 --> 00:54:49.058
So having AI serve things up to you, explain things to you, maybe give you a
00:54:49.058 --> 00:54:51.498
different view of something, maybe it's a graph, it's a whatever.
00:54:51.898 --> 00:54:55.038
I think that that's going to be way more powerful than people think.
00:54:55.338 --> 00:55:00.778
I think giving a decision maker unique or new ways of seeing information is
00:55:00.778 --> 00:55:03.978
going to be super powerful because we're way better at being visual than we
00:55:03.978 --> 00:55:05.558
are being numeric or textual.
00:55:06.158 --> 00:55:08.838
But automating humans out of it is is a
00:55:08.838 --> 00:55:11.938
mistake that i think a lot of fortunes are going to be lost trying
00:55:11.938 --> 00:55:14.858
to do because who's going to hang their hat or i would
00:55:14.858 --> 00:55:17.798
you approve something you didn't weren't part of making well
00:55:17.798 --> 00:55:21.198
it depends on what it is but there's a lot of things where if i wasn't in it
00:55:21.198 --> 00:55:24.678
i don't know like a spec writer forget it there's no way they're going to say
00:55:24.678 --> 00:55:28.618
it looks right those thousand pages read perfectly to who's risk who take who
00:55:28.618 --> 00:55:32.638
absorbs that risk that's right i love that i mean it's like we still need the
00:55:32.638 --> 00:55:37.418
man in the arena and we're just arming the man's arena with arming the man.
00:55:38.218 --> 00:55:42.318
So i'll end by saying i love this stuff so if any of your listeners just want
00:55:42.318 --> 00:55:46.318
a half an hour i i you know i love talking about it and i love i love where
00:55:46.318 --> 00:55:50.038
people are versus where i might be you know i just learn a lot from talking
00:55:50.038 --> 00:55:52.538
to folks that's great where do they contact you.
00:55:53.578 --> 00:55:58.518
Linkedin linkedin's great okay i'll yeah and i'll link the link the link link
00:55:58.518 --> 00:56:02.738
as well in the show notes i always commit to show notes and then i forget but
00:56:02.738 --> 00:56:06.278
um i'm not really gonna try this time to do that. Thank you so much.
00:56:06.598 --> 00:56:08.918
Hey guys, thanks for having me on. Great job.