Fuld transskription af Sharp Money | August 26, 2024 | Hour 3

were with quite a crew there, big guy. You Jonathan von Tobelsawmitch and Matt Brown. 00:05:05 Speaker 6: And I was. I was quite loose, if you know what I mean. I was. 00:05:08 Speaker 5: I was in a mood and I was pounding those vodka sodas without a lot of food in me. 00:05:13 Speaker 6: So yeah, I was having a good time. 00:05:15 Speaker 1: Patrick questioned, for you, So you go to valet and the valet guys, oh, here you go, Hey, be careful heading home? Is that not code for you know what? Just hold on and I'll be back in ninety minutes. Right, they're basically telling you don't don't do it right. 00:05:32 Speaker 3: The big guy was feeling no pain on Friday night. 00:05:35 Speaker 5: Saturday. Saturday was a little different. Saturday was kind of a rough day. I felt very old. 00:05:40 Speaker 1: Speaking of feeling old, so I gotta let you know from historic Duck Creek today, Gil Alexander took out his frustrations of under performances in the past, and he beat me on the tennis court like a drum. 00:05:54 Speaker 4: He smashed winners. 00:05:56 Speaker 3: He he you know what. 00:05:58 Speaker 1: He finally played up to his potential and he out like like smarted me because I dink all the time and hit like short balls to him, and he like returned the favor and dropshot me like crazy, not to mention, just passed me lobbed over me. It was just and somehow I was up thirteen to four. He kept asking now after he won the first said he said, up, Steve, what were you up by again? 00:06:20 Speaker 4: Were you up like seventeen to two or thirteen to four? Gale? 00:06:23 Speaker 1: And he's like, so, so I'm sure, what do the matth He's like, outscored me from that point on a lot too a little as he just whacked me like twenty two, twenty one to eight in a second set. 00:06:34 Speaker 6: So just it was. 00:06:36 Speaker 4: It took me out beyond the woodshit. 00:06:38 Speaker 3: Beat a beat down. Mister feesick. 00:06:41 Speaker 2: Hey, you said you need some help. Suddenly into dispute with Right Angle Sports. 00:06:46 Speaker 3: Oh what's going on? 00:06:47 Speaker 4: So what's this? 00:06:48 Speaker 1: I'm I'm like happy everyone, but everyone we're all buddies, right the guys come into town and I even like take everybody to lunch, including someone from Right Angle Sports. 00:06:59 Speaker 4: I'm not gonna mention names. Then what's this? I see, I get this. 00:07:04 Speaker 1: There's this message comes aboard because I had a great weekend for my clients, and I'm gonna ask you guys because I want to take myself out of it. So I gave out a play. It was the Tennessee Titans from Memory first Half money Line, and I gave it out Mis two twenty five, and at the time there was three books, DraftKings, Bet MGM, and Bette Rivers all had that number or a better number when I released. Raz responded, Steve is playing Steam this game got hit earlier, which it did. Absolutely it got hit that well. So I was I was laying more than what it would have been an hour before. He says further, a lot of the Sharp books were already in minus two sixty, and he's like, if he's playing against these books that are like fly by Night books that shouldn't be you know, no one's going to take you seriously if you if you list your plays against these books. And I'm like to myself, and I'm thinking to myself, well, if I can't use DraftKings and bet MGM, I can't use Pinnacle because you can't bet in America. It's like I can't use Circa because they're only in like six states or whatever. 00:08:05 Speaker 4: It is like, like what books can I use? Right? You guys tell me? 00:08:10 Speaker 5: Are they saying you're not allowed to give out picks that are following the Steam like that? 00:08:14 Speaker 1: I'm not sure, but I think what they're saying is it should be widely available at the sharp books. And my take is, well, who knows what is a sharp book or a square book. My take has always been if it's only available one book, that's not sufficient. So the rule has been it's got to be widely available, meaning it's got to be available multiple books, which I've always defined to be three major books, Like it doesn't count to like list the Treasure Island. 00:08:36 Speaker 4: That's not a major book. I'll get them. 00:08:38 Speaker 1: I'll get them my helicopter right now and fly over there and and and park on the roof and put my bed in. But it's got to be a place, you know that that is reasonably large. But I thought those three. I don't know if bet Rivers qualifies, but certainly I would have said, you know, bet MGM and DraftKings would be two of the ten that would make my top ten lists. But right angle to be fair, very smart guys, and they completely disagree. 00:09:00 Speaker 5: Look, they're awesome there, I get it there, But have you ever just thought about maybe they're using you, Steve like they always have an issue with things you do, and then you reply, and then your followers are now seeing you talking to them in your feeds, that they're now latching on to the group of people that are following your PI. 00:09:16 Speaker 6: Like just feels like they're just kind of using the attention. 00:09:19 Speaker 3: You think he's being trolled. 00:09:20 Speaker 5: I think they're taking advantage of the fact that he is a social media wild card and a lot of people see his tweets, not saying a lot of people don't see theirs. They have an awesome business. Everyone knows how sharp they are, but I do think they take shots. Steve claps back trying to be the good guy, and then people get them in front of more eyeballs than they normally would be that. 00:09:41 Speaker 1: I don't know about this, but he did want to address And I have a lot of respect for guys that go out like Brad Powers does this that buy other people's picks, and they got other people's picks and information and the aggregate, like Gill calls me Fessicus the Great Aggregator, and there's some people out there like, oh, I f that's getting him a

player. He's like, he's all he does as a follower, and it's just like I know, guys it because like. 00:10:02 Speaker 4: I originate and innovate more than anybody. 00:10:04 Speaker 1: Like if anyone that knows me to say I can't make lines in the games that I personally like the NFL and specializing, and you're just an idiot, like I mean, like you know, I mean, I mean, give me a break. I mean, go talk to some of these bookmakers and put up openers and who's playing against them? How can I aggregate when I'm betting eight seconds after the the lines come about. Having said that, I think one of the best ways to win, and I would encourage everybody is to absolutely get more information. I have no problem purchasing Right Angle Sports or Doctor Bob Sports. I purchase all these guys because having more information to make your final decisions about how you wager is ultimately where you can maximize what you're earning and maximize frankly, the winning picks you give out to your clients. 00:10:46 Speaker 2: Well a very sharp book and book maker plural bookmakers South Point, and your business is no good there because you originate. 00:10:55 Speaker 4: You know, It's funny because I have a buddy, A J. 00:10:57 Speaker 1: Hoffman, and he just got he just got a note like up, We're not gonna be able to take any of your wagers. Anymore over the app, but feel free to bet in person. So he's got that so very curious. He AJ and I are buddies. I don't know what's going on there. 00:11:13 Speaker 2: Huh so, big guy, you think he's being trolled a little bit. 00:11:16 Speaker 6: I think there's clout chasing happening. 00:11:18 Speaker 5: I think knowing that people react to everything Steve does on social it's a great opportunity for them to jump on, have him react, and now their stuff's appearing in the people who want to get Steve's picks feet that's all. 00:11:33 Speaker 2: He's a big deal. People pay attention. That's a good thing. 00:11:36 Speaker 6: We're gonna come back. 00:11:37 Speaker 2: Steve's got thirty pending bets for football and he doesn't like anything. What he'll explain next, Okay, ask a pro with professional better Steve Feznt coming up sharp money at vsen dot com. Of course, Steve hanging out thust' at the DM Patrick Maher Live from Los Angeles. Let's get into back into your notes. You said, let's talk about how I have thirty pending bets for this upcoming football season and how I really don't like anything very much. 00:12:13 Speaker 3: How is that possible? 00:12:15 Speaker 1: Because the numbers aren't what they were when I released them, and it's all about getting the best of the number. So just as an example of one game Atlanta Pittsburgh, I gave out the Falcons mice two and a half hosting Pittsburgh. You know, the funny thing about this game is early in the summer, Patrick, I thought Pittsburgh plus three was a great bet, and then watch in the preseasons, like Pittsburgh doesn't have a quarterback. Russell Wilson looks completely shot and fields isn't going to play, and if he did, he's no better and so and then that Atlanta picks up a couple of new starters on defense, and I'm like, well things have changed now. I like atlantamized two and a half, but you know what, now I got LAY three and that's a big difference between Laying two and a half. And so many of my bets that it made during the summer have just moved so dramatically. And I think there was one theme we saw, not that these games middled, but like SMU during the summer was like minus eighteen and. 00:13:05 Speaker 4: A half and then it closes minus twenty. 00:13:07 Speaker 1: And I can say in general, and we talked about the eight of clubs betting method. It is almost never wrong to fade a line move that goes crazy. 00:13:18 Speaker 4: So I got a great example. 00:13:19 Speaker 1: Is like in the National League when you look at Rookie of the year, if you just look at the vagaries of which way the wind's blowing, and Jackson Merrill hits another game, you know, winning home run, and now all of a sudden he becomes the favorite, and now is not the time. 00:13:34 Speaker 4: To be betting on him. You basically want value. 00:13:37 Speaker 5: So Skeen's is next start. It'll probably flip ageint if Skeens goes crazy. I want to ask you about the line moves with college football though, because I'm a bit of a dog. You know what I did. I had in my phone and notes with all the games when the openers came out that I loved, and all summer I kept. 00:13:50 Speaker 6: Going, okay, has it moved? Okay? Has it moved? 00:13:53 Speaker 5: All of a sudden, seasons creeping up Week zero starts to happen, and all the games I like have moved a point or two. And I'm still them because I do still like the numbers where we're at. But at what point should I be going? 00:14:05 Speaker 6: You know what? 00:14:06 Speaker 5: It's a month out, they haven't moved, I should bet them, Like when should I be looking to finally get down? I feel like getting down in May and June when they come out is kind of crazy. 00:14:14 Speaker 4: I don't know. It's difficult. 00:14:15 Speaker 1: And the reason it's difficult is like, well, consolt for like betting funds, it's because you start betting in May and you're not gonna get any of this money back until the earliest, you know, week zero, and like, what's this, I said, Oh, Georgia Tech plus thirteen, head to the window. I finally I got one of my bets where it's like it's actually resolved itself and I'm getting money back in my accounts. I have so much pending and I'm not alone here that it becomes difficult where you're like, all right now, I'm only going to bet like really good stuff. I'm I bow to the altar of the closing line value. So the bottom line is sometimes closing line value is meaningless, and the most common time is during standalone games. 00:14:56 Speaker 4: So like Nevada SMU, there's. 00:14:58 Speaker 1: Only one game going on and there's a tsunami of money coming

in on the favorite SMU. Same thing with the lake in the bailoc game with Hawaii, Delaware State still hasn't made it to the islands, right, They're like they're gonna they've got to fly through Saskatchewan, I believe to get there. 00:15:13 Speaker 4: And so when the narrative is like so overwhelming and. 00:15:16 Speaker 1: You see like Hawaii go up as a thirty nine a half point favorite and then SMU is laying twenty eight and a half, and it's just like enough is enough? You know, we're really we know nothing, as Gill likes to say, we know nothing about these teams. We just have ideas and those ideas could be wrong. And the only way SMU, and I know, I'm past posting eighty dollars mandatory fine, the only way that SMU can be laying twenty eight and a half on the road and in altitude in Nevada is if SMU is like top twenty and Nevada is like one of the five worst teams, which could be, but if they're not, it's the spread is just too high. 00:15:50 Speaker 4: And ultimately it was. 00:15:52 Speaker 2: And you said college football summary, when a line moves too much, which is what we're discussing, you said, it's almost always correct to play back. 00:16:00 Speaker 4: Talk to Will Hill all the time about this. 00:16:01 Speaker 1: APB always played back, he's got a should have bet more, And I'm like, yeah, should have bet more when the line was smu mius nineteen and now we should always play back Nevada plus twenty eight and a half because the bottom line is, it's just rarely wrong. You look at the Pittsburgh Steelers preseason, they're laying three against Detroit. Maybe a good bet line goes to seven. Take the Lions plus seven. Now, I know there are situations where you have absolute no shows in games, and like the Broncos won a preseason game by a zillion, I mean, it does happen, and preseason maybe you can argue it's a little bit of that case. But even like like the Tennessee Titans got like all the steam and they barely held on to win the game out right, you know, with the last second score. It is just so difficult to win when a game moves through all these multiple key numbers. 00:16:48 Speaker 2: Do you still because it's been a long tested adage that pros love betting the preseason, has that changed it all for you? 00:16:56 Speaker 1: I've doubled down. I've tripled down on this. I got to tell you my buddy the hitman. He's like texting me, He's like, I'm twelve and two, but it really should be fourteen. And oh you know as far as like the bad beats that he's getting and the stuff, and it really is. He's maniacal. He is like, hyper critical. I got to tell you this bet bash breaking news. Don't get mad at me, Tom, You're the best. He's like, how are these guys going and just hanging out and like going on scavenger hunts and just having a good old time. 00:17:24 Speaker 4: It's NFL preseason. They're dunks. 00:17:27 Speaker 1: This is like the greatest bets you could possibly ever make. And he's right, follows all the beat writers. He's

like, one team is going to play there once, the other team's going to play their twos and threes, and you can get the first quarter at pick them. I mean, you're never gonna find a bet on a side or total in the NFL during the regular season. Any bet is going to pale in comparison to that sort of edge. 00:17:49 Speaker 2: So his cost benefit analysis of time spent at bet bash, it's not a net plus. 00:17:55 Speaker 4: Yeah, do you want to go to bet Bash? 00:17:57 Speaker 1: Time's like, yeah, but I can't afford the eighty thousand dollars it's going to cost me. 00:18:00 Speaker 4: That's that's his analysis. 00:18:03 Speaker 2: The hit Man, who was on the show a couple of weeks ago. Sharp guy, that is a flex I like it. 00:18:07 Speaker 4: You know what I love about the Hitman. He's the first one to say this. 00:18:10 Speaker 1: He's like, it's like wall Street, Gordon Keek who He's like, all these Ivy League guys, you know, with these these education's not worth dog, you know what compared to give me a working class guy that's motivated and outwork and everybody every single time. 00:18:25 Speaker 4: And that that is the hit Man. Absolutely hard. 00:18:28 Speaker 5: Hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard, John Wooden, what. 00:18:32 Speaker 2: Very good, very good, Dustin Michael Scott. The hit Man actually was a teacher and it just became too profitable with his betting, so he quit teaching. 00:18:45 Speaker 1: And he's the first, actually it's the first to admit, you know, when he was a teacher. He's like, there was no real incentive for me to excel us. He's a physical education teacher. He's like, I gotta be honest, Steve, I'm a whole lot better at what I do now. 00:18:56 Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, well's uh, Dustin, we should probably get start because we questions coming in sharp money at Lison dot com. 00:19:04 Speaker 3: Ask the pro. 00:19:05 Speaker 2: You can email your question in right now, get a shout out. Steve doesn't see the questions before and just extemporaneous. He goes off and we love hearing the answer. So let's get it started here, big. 00:19:16 Speaker 5: Guys, Antonio Hernandez writes and Steve, how do you figure out a team's chance of winning a particular game? 00:19:23 Speaker 4: Wow, that's a complicated question. 00:19:25 Speaker 1: But to answer it, I have power ratings that I give out in each and every team. So let's say one team is rated five points better than an average team like the Chiefs, and they're playing a dead average team like the Colts neutral site. Difference between the numbers would be five point spread. You convert that five point spread to what I'd call a no big money line, which would be a proximilly. I'm sure someone will, I'm sure right angle tell me I messed this one up. But it would be like minus two O eight plus two to eight. So then you take the probability they'll win that game two O eight divide by three to eight as being, so you converted over to a probability victory there. 00:19:59 Speaker 3: It is easily done. 00:20:02 Speaker 2: Good job, Steve. Hey, do you have a random thought on the Chargers this year? 00:20:06 Speaker 4: Great question. 00:20:08 Speaker 1: I think the Chargers are one of those teams you have to see it all right. 00:20:12 Speaker 4: Because you've got now they got a good coach. 00:20:15 Speaker 1: However, they have no skill position players and they got a quarterback with planter fasci itis that doesn't get to practice effectively with all the new skill position players. So maybe Fayluk to fade the Chargers early in the year would be my thought. And like, I know, and hey, you know, we talked about wise guys. We don't all agree. Like the Hitman likes the Chargers by US three and that goes up to three and a half, and I'm like, it's a home game for the Raiders in Los Angeles. You realize that with a quarterback that isn't getting you know, any real reps in practice, I would favor the Raiders in that game plus the three and a half. But I think the one theme would be the Chargers should improve throughout the year, especially if Herbert gets better. 00:20:54 Speaker 6: Yeah, is it crazy, Steve to look at a team like the Chargers. 00:20:56 Speaker 5: I'd say the Cardinals are in this category, and I would put the Titans, but I might be on an island there where I want to back them as underdogs against the spread because I think they're going to be underrated in terms of what they're going to be getting each week, and just finding the right opportunities to take those points in the right matchup. 00:21:15 Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting it talk about the Chargers like being a dog. It seems like teams with some sort of San Diego affiliation, whether they're used to be there or they're currently there. The Padres and the Chargers, they sure feel like teams that we want to bet on them when they're underdogs and against them when they're favorites. 00:21:32 Speaker 4: Right. 00:21:32 Speaker 1: They seem to like every one of their games seems to be close and could go either way, right, and. 00:21:36 Speaker 6: They underachieve a lot. 00:21:39 Speaker 2: I just like the fact that Steve he can bring the issue with right angle Sports up in any answer. 00:21:46 Speaker 3: He can tie it to any answer, impress. 00:21:48 Speaker 4: I love right angle sports. 00:21:50 Speaker 1: Like right Angle Sports has had a documented fantastic winning rate, but they're hits the point where the feeding frenzy just gets too great. And I've told them years ago, I said, you're not gonna hit fifty six percent going you know, going forward. 00:22:02 Speaker 4: It's it's just not viable. And I caught all kinds. 00:22:05 Speaker 1: Of flack all over the internet, like, oh no, well, why wouldn't they And it's like because I said, because it's like even the last three years, the market has gotten so much more difficult to beat, and ultimately they've still won, but they haven't won at nearly

the same rate. 00:22:18 Speaker 3: I bet you Palinakis hit seventy percent. 00:22:22 Speaker 4: Only at the Buffet. 00:22:26 Speaker 2: Aska pro sharp money at vson dot com or with Steve Ezik next. Okay, quick note check the reporting the Titans are sending quarterback Malik Willis to the Packers in exchange for a twenty five seventh round pick, so of course Willis likely to back up Jordan Love. 00:22:47 Speaker 1: With the Green Bay Packers or return go ahead, going, please, Steve, or you can return kickoffs for them? 00:22:55 Speaker 3: He could, he could do. 00:22:56 Speaker 2: We were just commiserating over bad beats and potentially bad beats. 00:23:02 Speaker 3: What happened with your Titan game? 00:23:03 Speaker 5: Here? 00:23:04 Speaker 1: I almost lost and I'm sorry to interrupt. You finish your thought please. At the end of the first I pushed on the CFL one hundred and twenty eight yard miss field goal Saskatch one game like ten days ago, and I said, that's the worst bad beat I'm ever going to see. And then Rufus Peabody alerted me. I was golfing at the win Patrick. He told me that there was one hundred and five yard missed field goal return the Titans in the first half and they were up by three and I had the money line and dude apparently got pushed out at the one yard line, so I almost got hit with one hundred and six yard another miss field goal returned to cost me a big bet. 00:23:41 Speaker 2: We know, right Angle Sports bet was cheering against you in that one. 00:23:47 Speaker 4: They do it right. 00:23:47 Speaker 1: Angle Sports does a great job, and I fully endorsed them. 00:23:52 Speaker 3: We do you purchased their picks? 00:23:54 Speaker 6: What could be you? Like a lot of people who don't treat you very well. I give you credit. 00:23:59 Speaker 3: You know you're a good guy. 00:24:00 Speaker 1: Other than interrupting the show host, which I just felt terrible about. I really do evaluate people based on competency. Number one. If somebody's really good at what they do. Even if they tell me that I that I'm lousy and I can improve my game, they're probably right when they tell me that. So I mean, I ultimately I respect the people that I think are the best of them. 00:24:21 Speaker 4: And it's subjective. I could be wrong about select people. 00:24:23 Speaker 6: Absolutely take the emotion out of it. Look at it objectively. 00:24:26 Speaker 5: I think it's t how you look why you've succeeded in sports betting. 00:24:30 Speaker 3: I say it all the time. 00:24:31 Speaker 2: If people ask me about Steve Easick, greatest guy ever, He's just crazy. 00:24:36 Speaker 6: It's not not true. 00:24:38 Speaker 2: Just the best guy you're ever gonna meet, little wacko like today because his brain works differently. 00:24:45 Speaker 1: Today, Like like I'm making fun of poor GRP and how he's eating. All Right, Patrick, I'm gonna disclose it. After my fruit ball. We're downtown. We're here a little early evil pie. Yes, I had the slice of the Goblin got. 00:25:00 Speaker 4: Yeah, I was delicious. Yeah. 00:25:02 Speaker 2: See that's he's a wild card granola ble off to get a slice before his big hit here on sharp Money. 00:25:10 Speaker 3: That's Fez. 00:25:11 Speaker 2: Okay, let's get back to the questions. Ask a pro sharp Money at vsen dot com. 00:25:15 Speaker 5: Okay, Chase writes in, I got a question for Fez. Is he familiar with Bett? Openly? 00:25:19 Speaker 6: What does he think about it? 00:25:20 Speaker 5: While the menu is small, I like the player to player format with reduced juice. 00:25:24 Speaker 4: So I'm not familiar with bet openly. 00:25:26 Speaker 1: But when he responds player to player, what is he referring to player proper? 00:25:31 Speaker 5: I think you can go like someone can say I like New Mexico thirteen and a half. Someone can say, well, then I like the other side, and you can. 00:25:38 Speaker 6: Just go a head to head on the back. 00:25:39 Speaker 1: I love any betting exchanges where people are paying less on the vegan you're matching up betters together. So I have no I'd have to look at the software, but I love the concept. 00:25:50 Speaker 2: Yes, did you enjoy the traverse over the weekend down the stretch with of course fierceness in Torpedo Anna battling it out there and horse racing? 00:26:01 Speaker 1: So of course I followed Thorpede on a back when she was just cult h. 00:26:06 Speaker 3: She's a Philly so it's a girl. 00:26:08 Speaker 4: I I I asked Samach. 00:26:13 Speaker 5: I'm on a heater over Samitch right now. I'm killing Samich. I hit a what was it on Friday? I paid out a lot anyway, it was like a twelve to one winner. 00:26:23 Speaker 6: Something like that. 00:26:24 Speaker 3: Yeah, you won like but three hundred bucks or something. 00:26:27 Speaker 6: I won like one hundred and twenty off like ten dollars. 00:26:29 Speaker 5: But I also won like six hundred two weeks ago off of just betting Mike's. 00:26:33 Speaker 6: Picks at Saratoga. 00:26:34 Speaker 5: I misclicked and betted at Gulf Stream and it won at golf Stream, came in second at Saratoga. 00:26:38 Speaker 6: So I'm the best. 00:26:38 Speaker 2: You know, he was listening, That's why he came in and crossed. Yeah, I love it was entertaining. 00:26:44 Speaker 4: I got Patrick mad at me. 00:26:45 Speaker 1: So yeah, But if to summarize, I said, I said, this is all entertaining against great bet five dollars, have fun. It's like people bet Keino for a couple of dollars. 00:26:53 Speaker 6: They have fun. 00:26:53 Speaker 4: Well, they're eat against I'm not against it. 00:26:55 Speaker 6: I'm on a horse racing heater spot. You can't deny it. 00:26:57 Speaker 1: But what I can deny is, like I tell anyone out there, I'll tell I'll tell Samson like he's super super smart guy with all the respect in the world, He's not gonna win over his picks over the next three years. And I'm sure he would disagree, and you say he will, I'd

be more than happy to put up some money and the way winner and then goes to the favorite charity of the other person. How is someone will do in the long run now and any one week, month, year they could, they could succeed. It's it's not that Samas isn't great horse racing. It's just so difficult with the big beings, so much. 00:27:24 Speaker 6: Easy for me. 00:27:25 Speaker 2: You know what, one name, You've just thrown down the gauntlet. I'm cooking up. I'm cooking up a bet between Fezick and sawmich There's something there, a big guy. 00:27:35 Speaker 5: Yeah, like one horse race a week versus one NFL game a week or something like that. 00:27:41 Speaker 2: I will figure something out. We need to get a beck going between two sharp minds. Did you introduce Samwich to. 00:27:47 Speaker 3: Up at Legacy? 00:27:48 Speaker 6: Yeah, you guys met there. 00:27:49 Speaker 4: Yeah? 00:27:49 Speaker 6: Is that the first time? 00:27:50 Speaker 4: I think I've met once once before. 00:27:52 Speaker 1: But but you know, the bottom line is, I don't want to bet against Samag's football selections. I definitely don't want to bet against his home teams. Not to bat in the bottom of the night. 00:28:00 Speaker 6: How about that one? 00:28:01 Speaker 4: Oh, that stuff is wrong. 00:28:03 Speaker 5: I think he forced the sportsbook to reassess their entire game plan for props by exposing that one. 00:28:08 Speaker 2: Yes, time for another question for mister Feesick asked the pro what. 00:28:13 Speaker 7: Do we have? 00:28:13 Speaker 6: Okay, this is from Brody. 00:28:16 Speaker 5: Brody says, with all the big line moves during preseason and into college football, people often talk about middling opportunities. 00:28:22 Speaker 4: One. 00:28:22 Speaker 6: Do you do this often too? 00:28:24 Speaker 5: If so, do you recommend making even bets on both sides or do you place a bigger bet on one side. 00:28:29 Speaker 4: God, that's a great question. It's so complicated. 00:28:31 Speaker 1: Back to Will Hill where I always text him when a big line move goes down, always play back. 00:28:36 Speaker 4: So it depends upon what you're able to get. 00:28:39 Speaker 1: Let's use an SMU Nevada game, all right, and here's why. If you bet SMU minus nineteen, maybe you didn't get as much back as you might in another circumstance. Because this was a situation that closed the line was twenty eight. But the sharpest books in the world, the Circus and the like, and the reduced big places, we're actually popping the twenty eight and a halves. That's a situation where I would play back, but I might play back maybe fifty percent of what my bet was. But now let's assume circustantly drops like ten minutes before the game starts to twenty seven and so does Pinnacle, and so does Bookmaker. 00:29:09 Speaker 4: But there's still. 00:29:10 Speaker 1: Twenty eights and twenty eight and a halfs at more recreational books. I'm not going to name like recreational books, you know, maybe not the sharpest books on the screen, like Southpoint. So a book like that would be a place that you would absolutely in that case, you walk up and say, give me the limit on Nevada plus the twenty eight and a half, because you're getting the rogue number that is not widely available. But the book is actually so inundated with so much liability and parlay liability. They're happy for the most part, unless you're a jerk. They'll let you bet, and they'll go ahead and and take that action back. So in this case I would have played modestly back on Nevada, but in the circumstance I described, I would have bet much bigger if that had been the case. 00:29:52 Speaker 2: Okay, Dustin, do we have one more time? 00:29:54 Speaker 6: For one more? We got a few more? 00:29:56 Speaker 5: Let me go, Alan Castle writes in again every gambler that I know as a sit that is tough to follow, in a bit crazy, I certainly have a few. 00:30:03 Speaker 6: Do you have systems that are tough to follow. 00:30:07 Speaker 1: Of course, you know and idea and you don't talk about them on air. But the best is when you have a very simplistic system. I'll give one for everyone next year going forward. How about this for a simplistic system. I think week three, the last week of preseason. I think play the first half over. 00:30:23 Speaker 4: And the second half under. 00:30:25 Speaker 1: Doesn't it seem like a lot of these teams they want to get, you know, have a good drive under their belt, feel good about going into the regular season, but then when it gets gets to halftime, it's like, let's just keep everybody healthy. 00:30:35 Speaker 4: What do you guys think of that simplistic system. 00:30:38 Speaker 2: Yeah, they're superscripted on the first couple of drives and then they just shut it down. So I think there's something to that. You saw it with Bryce Young, you saw it with Anthony Richardson. You know, even the Steelers, their first drives they led touchdown drives. So I think there's something to that. Okay, and we can measure it next year. 00:30:56 Speaker 5: Yeah, curious if we have a third week of the preseason next year. 00:31:00 Speaker 4: No, I'm old enough. 00:31:01 Speaker 1: Back in nineteen seventy three, the Bengals Kenny Anderson and the like you had fourteen games and six preseason games, so what were they thinking? Right, so much of the season was just preseason during August not fun. 00:31:17 Speaker 3: One more season, we have time for one more big. 00:31:19 Speaker 6: Guy Mike from New Hampshire. 00:31:20 Speaker 5: What NFL props is Steve focusing on touchdown first touchdown, yardage, reception, rush attempts are their markets. He finds little to no worth with or others that he likes better with Edges. 00:31:31 Speaker 1: Okay, so listen, I think we have a unique opportunity here with the kickoff rules such that the average field position is going to be instead of like the twenty five, like the twenty eight and a half. And we've

spoken about this on the show before, so I think scoring from the kickoff rule change is going to go up. Now, there might be other factors that will depress scoring, but the kickoff change will help scoring. But yardage wise, it's gonna hurt yardage because it's harder to accumulate yards. The further you drive down the field the field condenses, and so because of this, I already like skill position players under for the season. And now when you've got this situation where the yardage is going to be a little more of a premium. I think you've got marginal good bets that just became better good bets. 00:32:11 Speaker 4: Just from these new kickoff rules. 00:32:13 Speaker 1: So I would encourage everyone, and I'm not going to tell you specific bets, but if you go out there and if you play by example, every skill position player under you have always won doing that, largely because of the injury risk. 00:32:24 Speaker 4: But now I think you're going to go ahead and do it. 00:32:25 Speaker 1: Do the injury risk and because of a short and average yardage in the NFL. 00:32:29 Speaker 2: Games, tremendous performance. As always, any last thoughts on the way out, it's the floor is yours. 00:32:37 Speaker 4: Uh. 00:32:38 Speaker 1: You know, if you buy somebody lunch, you usually don't expect, like within two weeks that you're going to get like publicly attacked. So uh, be careful out there people. 00:32:49 Speaker 5: If breaking bread isn't what it used to be, it's certainly an interesting industry. 00:32:54 Speaker 4: Steve, Yes, No, I have no comment. 00:33:00 Speaker 3: If you have nothing nice to say, don't say anything. Correct. 00:33:04 Speaker 2: Yes, fesig Sports, keep up with all the action. We're going to come back with our family plays next year. Sharp Money it's vsent D Sports Betty Network. Okay, Sharp Money vsin D Sports Betty Network got some family plays to get to I Patrick Maher Live from La of course, the big guy, Dustin Sweedelson at the d in downtown Las Vegas. 00:33:34 Speaker 3: We should discuss because. 00:33:35 Speaker 2: He wanted me to pass it along, so Steve we went to break and he was obsessing over the fact that he interrupted me. First off, I don't care. It would be impossible to care less if you guys interrupt me. It literally doesn't matter. But he was obsessing over apologizing, wouldn't stop. 00:33:52 Speaker 5: Yeah, but that's the perfectionist you're dealing with there. That's why he obsesses over everything. That's why he is obsessed with c and the numbers and betting the best that ever or not pulling the trigger unless he absolutely loves it. 00:34:05 Speaker 6: Like, that's the whole personality. 00:34:07 Speaker 5: So when he does the opposite of colv for our segment and he feels bad about. 00:34:11 Speaker 3: It, yeah, that's a good point. That's just the way his brain works. 00:34:14 Speaker 4: Yeah. 00:34:14 Speaker 2: Becomes he gets on something, he becomes obsessed with it, like Palinakis

with the food can't stand and he just goes all the way in. I didn't even understand what happened with him in Right Angle Sports. 00:34:26 Speaker 5: All right, they were commenting on his pick, saying that he was steam chasing, and then saying, I guess criticizing that he was giving it out at a number that wasn't widely available nationally, but it was available like three books. Look, it's like when the drinking age was eighteen in some states and twenty one in others. Like at this point with betting, the numbers are going to be different at different sports books everywhere. 00:34:48 Speaker 6: He's selling to a national clientele. 00:34:50 Speaker 5: Of course, that's not going to be applicable at every single sports book in every single state. 00:34:55 Speaker 3: Okay. And so they called him out, yeah, and they. 00:34:58 Speaker 5: Like pushing his buttons because then he replies and becomes a whole thing, and then we have Twitter wars and Steve's like I think other people have anger, and I don't think Steve actually gets angry when he's going back in there. 00:35:08 Speaker 3: No, he does, That's the thing. He just separates him. 00:35:11 Speaker 2: He just he's constantly just curious and mixing it up. 00:35:16 Speaker 5: Yeah, he's having discourse. He's into the discourse. I don't but I think they're trying to troll him. I think they're trying to go at him and call him out. 00:35:23 Speaker 3: Okay, well, it happens people in social media. 00:35:29 Speaker 5: Okay, whatever your mental health illness is, that's what plays out on your social media feed. 00:35:33 Speaker 2: We all have them every single time. We all have them every single time, all right, speaking to have them, We've got family plays. I believe we're gonna start with Stuart Durst here a big guys. 00:35:44 Speaker 5: Oh you know what we've I forgot. We also have a John Bowman play today. So Stuart Durst, we've got him looking at a baseball prop. He does a great job at Monotone Football. Really happy for the guy. He's been a part of this program for a few months now and he's always looking at great angles for us. So here's our guy, Stuart Durst with his Sharp Money Family play for Monday. 00:36:04 Speaker 3: Sharp Money Family play. 00:36:09 Speaker 7: What's up Sharp Money Family Stewart Durst at Monotone Football. Here in today's best bet of the day, it's gonna be Jerkson Profar over one and a half hits plus runs plus RBIs. He's been one of my favorite targets, almost behind Merrill on this Padres team. But it looks like the pricing caught up to Marrow a little bit with this Rookie of the Year surge, not so much on Profar, still hitting two ninety two on the season, but one of the reasons I like the most for hits runs RBI is not only is he up early in this high powered Padres offense with a lot of good run potential with guys like Machado behind a marrow behind him, but also he has sneaky RBI upside. He's hitting two eighty two with runners in scoring positions so far this year. He's been fantastic when it matters the most, coming in with some good recent form over and for Strate. What I really like though, is the matchup against Gibson. He relies a lot on different variations of the fastball and then keeps hitters honest with the sweeper on. Unfortunately, his two biggest pitches, the cutter and sweeper, are both getting crushed by Profar the season over three point fifty against both of those two pitches. I think he's gonna have a lot of success today and I think he's going to be a big reason why the Padres keep the trade rolling. 00:37:14 Speaker 2: Okay, good job Stewart Durst all the picks over at viison dot com with the best bets you mentioned, John Bollman, former Scott with the Jays. 00:37:22 Speaker 3: He's got a baseball play for us today as well. 00:37:24 Speaker 5: Find him on Twitter at John Bowman eleven, Baseball with Bolman's where all of his baseball handicapping is. And here he is with a sharp Money family play for today. 00:37:32 Speaker 8: What's up, Sharp Money? John Bowman here from Baseball with Bullman, and I just wanted to give you guys my favorite play for today. We're gonna go with the Astros on the money line plus one forty five against the Phillies. A little bit of a contrarian play here, but I think this number is way too high for the Phillies right now. It's absolutely skyrocketing for them. Zach Wheeler has been pitching great. He's been consistent all season. Renauld Blanco has struggled a little bit more lately. But the Astros have been playing very well, especially on the road. They're ten and three since the trade deadline. There, they're hitting righty's very well, and they have the second best bullpen in the league since the trade deadline. So I think there's plenty of value on the Astros at plus money over the Phillies. 00:38:08 Speaker 6: Here. 00:38:10 Speaker 2: Astro's at a plus price for mister bull. You were smiling while he said it, Ah, because he's really good at finding those. 00:38:16 Speaker 5: And I was considering it, but when I dove into it, I ended up doing something with the other side. 00:38:21 Speaker 6: But I might have got too cute and Bowman might be just. 00:38:23 Speaker 5: Looking at this straightforward at I saw it at dollar fifty two right before the show starts. It's one of those deals where it's like it might be worth a shot. Now Blanco actually has been better on the road, but based on his last few starts, I think he the innings. 00:38:36 Speaker 6: Might be wearing on him and he might be slowing down some right. I went with the other side. 00:38:41 Speaker 2: Okay, part of the family, of course. I believe Aaron Halterman is texted over a pick. Didn't have a chance to get a video in. And who else do we have? 00:38:50 Speaker 5: Eric Linquist, our guy from odd Schopperho's going to be on the show tomorrow talking baseball. Halterman the plus money print due to Beat Sports as his podcast. He likes the Braves plus one

O five at the Twins. It's Freed versus Over in that one. And then Eric Linquist went to the WNBA. He said he loves this prop Tina Charles. I should have looked up who she plays for. Tina Charles over twenty three and a half points plus rebounds. 00:39:16 Speaker 3: Okay, thank you boys. 00:39:17 Speaker 6: He plays for the Dream, the Atlanta Dream. She's the center. 00:39:20 Speaker 3: Of course, everybody knows that. 00:39:22 Speaker 2: As far as what's happening the Cowboys extended CD Lamb, the Chiefs have reached a deal to reunite with Juju Smith Schuster. 00:39:33 Speaker 6: It's interesting. 00:39:34 Speaker 2: That's pretty much the only thing that's going Tim Patrick now, Tim Patrick? 00:39:39 Speaker 3: Yeah, are the Broncos moving on? 00:39:40 Speaker 5: Yeah, the Broncos moving on from Tim Patrick. Per My Cliss of nine News, they're exploring trade possibilities. Uh, there is a market for him, apparently, but they're gonna roll with everyone else at receiver. Patrick's just been hurt, but he's been really productive when he was healthy in the past. 00:39:56 Speaker 2: Okay, big guy, we have plenty of time for closing ten as also, I think you've got a baseball play you want to give out. 00:40:03 Speaker 5: Yeah, let's go with I'm gonna give out my Phillies play here. There's a bunch of other bets available at visa dot com slash picks. I'm gonna go Zach Wheeler five plus strikeouts and the Phillies win minus one thirty against the Astros. Wheelers all the way back to being himself. He had a one to seven to three ERA so far in August, He's had five strikeouts in ten straight starts. 00:40:25 Speaker 6: He has a two to four to oh home ERA. 00:40:27 Speaker 5: This game's back at Citizens Bank, and I think Blanco the era shows that he's starting to fade a four to three four era in August. He was four to four to OHO in July. This Phillies offense is finally back to heating up as well. They scored twenty six runs in three games at the Royals over the weekend. I'm gonna back the better offense, the better pitcher, and I'm gonna turn that into a from minus one eighty to minus one thirty by putting in Wheeler five plus k's because ten in a row, it just says he's gonna do it again. 00:40:56 Speaker 2: A nice work, Zach Wheeler all the way back, Just like closing tabs on a Monday. 00:41:03 Speaker 6: All right, you got closing tabs. 00:41:05 Speaker 5: Max Hofmeyer writes in I like that Fezick mentioned straight up that he buys other services because he wants to know who is on what Nobody shames Warren about Buffett and investors following his portfolio because they're not originating their own stocks. 00:41:18 Speaker 6: Same should apply to Betty. 00:41:20 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just why wouldn't you want as much information as possible? 00:41:24 Speaker 3: Totally agree. 00:41:26 Speaker 6: Let's see the Goonies, Patrick, you have never seen it. 00:41:28 Speaker 5: Rotten tomatoes seventy seven percent tomato meter, ninety one percent popcorn meter. 00:41:33 Speaker 6: The audience loves the Goonies. One of the audience. 00:41:36 Speaker 2: I couldn't even tell you so goonies. It's about some kids. Yeah, that's all I know. 00:41:42 Speaker 6: You got that. 00:41:42 Speaker 5: That's like ninety percent of the plot. Just a bunch of kids looking for bury treasure in their hometown. It's an obsession, and they loop a bunch of people in. There's some villains, there's some weirdos. It's a great mix some classic lines. 00:41:54 Speaker 3: Did they find the treasure? 00:41:56 Speaker 6: I can't get that away. I can't give that away. 00:42:00 Speaker 3: Okay. My assumption is they may have found the Booty. 00:42:03 Speaker 6: Don't we all wish we could? 00:42:04 Speaker 5: Speaking of Booty, I mentioned General Booty, former quarterback for Oklahoma. He was named over the weekend the starting quarterback for the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks. 00:42:14 Speaker 6: He's the nephew of John. 00:42:15 Speaker 5: David Booty and for former Marlins third baseman an NFL quarterback Josh Booty. 00:42:20 Speaker 2: Yep, General Booty. It's quite a name. 00:42:22 Speaker 6: It's a great name. 00:42:23 Speaker 3: Why why did Gabriel bail on Oklahoma? Do you know that answer? 00:42:26 Speaker 5: Because Jeff Lebby got the Mississippi State job and he was only at Oklahoma because he was following Jeff Lebby, who he had his OC at UCF. 00:42:34 Speaker 3: It's a good answer else, and he was not going to go. 00:42:36 Speaker 6: To Mississippi State. 00:42:37 Speaker 4: I can tell you that. 00:42:39 Speaker 5: No, you started the show talking about that. You were betting icelandic soccer. It's funny that soccer is actually the most popular sport in Iceland. Handball's popular and apparently a lot of horse racing stuff, skiing and snowboarding not listed hockey, which is weird because Iceland was the Hockey Villains and D two The Mighty Ducks are back. 00:42:59 Speaker 3: You ever been to Iceland? 00:43:01 Speaker 6: No, but it's not that far. It looks really cool. 00:43:05 Speaker 3: Been there on a layover, just the airport, but. 00:43:08 Speaker 5: It's got a different look and vibe. I mean, the Vikings discovered it. 00:43:11 Speaker 6: It's awesome. 00:43:12 Speaker 3: Yeah, one hundred percent. What else? 00:43:14 Speaker 5: Asie a sweet Brazilian snack food from the Amazona's. It's a dish made with frozen and mashed fruit of the Asie palm, described as having an earthy or creamy taste. I've never had Asie. It just looks like weird yogurt. 00:43:27 Speaker 3: Oh, it's tremendous. 00:43:28 Speaker 2: You gotta be careful with these bulls, though, because oftentimes just loaded with sugar ends. 00:43:32 Speaker 6: Up being here five hundred bowls. 00:43:34 Speaker 5: And also on this date, nineteen sixty eight, Hey Jude was released. 00:43:38 Speaker 3: Is it a banger? Is it a bop? 00:43:40 Speaker 6: It is a bop. 00:43:42 Speaker 2: I want to thank Chris Plank for joining John Middelkoff and the great Steve Zick. 00:43:47 Speaker 3: Great job by you. 00:43:48 Speaker 2: Dustin Sweedelson A banner show today and guess what it don't stop. We're back tomorrow, Sharp Money. It's Vison D Sports Betting Network