Fuld transskription af The 12 Biggest Dynasty Risers & Fallers of 2026 with James Anderson (Ep. 1398)

an easy guy to root for Welsh. I think one of the most endearing players in Major League Baseball to go along with all the talent in the world feels like a guy that people are going to want to draft. When you hear when James said he had him top five, you did a little eyebrow raise. Where do you have him in your dynasty starting pitcher rankings? 00:05:52 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't have him top five, but I'd have to be looking here. I think I've got him. I want to say I've got him like top 12. I think from a dynasty perspective, he's inside the top 15 of starting pitchers. I think if you want to push him into the top 10, I think you can do that. But also, it's hard to disagree with even in the top five if you want to do that. I think there's sometimes a balance of when now and future projection and stuff like that. But this is a dude who pumped innings. strikeout ratio i mean love k minus walk percentage it was over 20 that's a huge marker he had a better expected era than era you know and also looking over on like um stuff models every single pitch if you're looking at stuff plus over on fan graphs he was a hundred or plus i mean every single pitch was an advantage but more than anything fastball is And Cutter, I think, or this is Curveball, were 125 or higher. So he ended up having a 115 overall stuff plus. So that's, you know, grading out the stuff of the pitches. Location plus was 100 and pitching plus was a 112. So it's a complete pitcher. That's the version of what a complete pitcher looks like. And, you know, you started this off. I would just, last thing I throw is you were just like, man, we didn't see Tully here. You know where we almost saw Tully at the start of the season? Was at Diamondback. And if you remember, like this was the guy that was being offered out there in the Cattell Marte trades and nothing ended up happening. And like in an alternating universe, he's a diamond back and maybe he's not as good in that environment or maybe, you know, he is vaulting this team up. But totally here's the thing that's not arguable. Totally is a huge riser in dynasty. And what I think James did was identify. This is where I think even better. I think James identified a player. that is not viewed in the top 10, unless someone is subscribed, which many are to baseball America and what James is doing. But I don't think everyone is going to be viewing him necessarily as a top 10 SP because it's pretty ripe with talent that I think this is a player that you might be able to buy as an SP 15 or 20 still in dynasty and have top 10 to five upside. So this is like, a great dynasty riser to target focus and try to go trade for. 00:08:01 Speaker 1: A classic buy high. And I am co-signing everything that these two gentlemen are saying. Peyton Tolley for redraft purposes for me will probably be an SP one, maybe a high end SP two, but a top 20 starting pitcher, regardless of what format you're looking at points category, Roto head to head dynasty redraft. Peyton Tolley is a stud, whichever way you slice it. We're going to move on to Miguel Vargas, Welsh's first name here, a guy who had an incredible breakout season, 33 bombs. He stole 22 bags. He hit 250. The batting average did fall off a little bit at the end of the year, but we're looking at a 134 WRC plus, a 13% barrel rate. His bat speed, something that I've harped on quite a bit this year, went up 3.3 miles an hour year over year. Just a huge breakout for Miguel Vargas. He walked 10 times in the playoffs in just seven games. There's a lot to like here, Welshie. 00:08:47 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think he might be the Peyton Tolley of hitters right now because I think he maybe lacks a little bit of the sexiness of the name you know when he was a Dodger was a little bit higher he's still a white sock I think I think all season long people were trying to catch up to his value you know I'm saying like his value like what he was doing on the field I don't think the perception ever caught up with him like he was always valuable and people that owned him probably didn't want to like trade off of him or anything like that. But I just don't think there's an appreciation for, again, like totally like the complete picture that he is the complete player that Vargas was 33 homers, 22 stolen bases, ridiculous, solid OBP over a hundred points higher on the OBP. And then the hitting profile, I always am going to look at like, it's, it's, I haven't figured out what the system is yet to go through it, but like the, the quadrant of things I'm looking at barrel percentage, he raised that almost 4% up to 13%. That's like, you know, you're getting into an elite number. 20 degree launch angle. That's great. He upped his hard hit rate over 3%. And what's the final piece? Pulled air percentage, 28%. All four of those clicked in really high ways with what you said, I think is a super important one, the bat speed. I mean, that's a massive increase from a very like league average or below league average bat speed to well above. And you can see the results. And this is a guy that walks a ton. And if you want to put like an extra little piece on it, it doesn't strike out. It's like 17%. So I think Miguel Vargas doesn't feel young by the way, because he was the Dodgers prospect forever. Remember that famous video in spring training where he wasn't allowed to swing and Zach Granke's thrown at him? But people associate this old age. He's 26 years old. He's 26 years old with a 30-20 season, a really, really great hitting profile on a team that's moving up. I think Miguel Vargas should easily be seen from a fantasy dynasty asset standpoint. I think he's a top 50 bat. And that might be underselling it because I think if you look at redraft, people could sell him as a top three-round player. But I think if you want to be a little bit safe about it, I just don't know even if he's going to be in the top 75 currently. So I think even if it wasn't me spouting out some new information

about a player, Miguel Vargas is a dynasty riser regardless of like my thought process or not. It's just what does that look like? And I think there's so many pieces of it regardless of the little fall off that are safe. And I think, again, like Tully, this is a player that you can buy much cheaper than what the real floor of his dynasty value looks like. 00:11:15 Speaker 1: And if you look at the Fangraphs player writer, the only third baseman who was more valuable last year was Junior Caminero. Going back to the bat speed, his 3.3 mile an hour increase was the second highest of any player last year between 2025 and 2026. I co-sign everything you're saying here. Vargas is a huge target of mine heading into next year as well. I'm a huge fan. You get third base and first base eligibility. James, has he risen in your rankings as well over the course of the last year or so? 00:11:42 Speaker 3: Oh, yeah. I've got him even higher than Welsh, I think. Vargas, he was one of five players to go 30-20. PCA, C.J. Abrams, Elie De La Cruz, James Wood are the only other ones. And, of course, Vargas, the big difference is he's a corner guy. And the steals, it made kind of seemed like an outlier that he stole 22 bases, but he went 22 for 24 and he was nine for 10 on the, on the bases from 24 to three 25. So he's a good base dealer. I think he's going to keep running. Uh, I'm, I'm a full believer. 00:12:16 Speaker 2: All right, let me, I'm going to do a, who'd you rather. And then I want, I want a Rico to think about this James in dynasty, Miguel Vargas or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 00:12:26 Speaker 3: Jesus Vargas. It's not really close for me. 00:12:29 Speaker 2: Oh, Rico. What do you think? 00:12:32 Speaker 1: At this point, it's got to be Vargas. I mean, I hate that you brought up Vladdy. We weren't going to bring up Vladdy today, but no, we have to. We're talking about risers and fallers. He's certainly not a riser. And when you look at everything that Vargas has done, the trajectory of the White Sox as a whole, I love that team. Teal, Murakami, the whole offensive unit seems to be coming together. I think it's got to be Vargas. I mean, Vladdy could have a huge bounce back season, and I think he'll probably be quite a bit better than he was last year. Is that going to be 30-20? Probably not. 00:13:00 Speaker 3: No, it's not. 00:13:02 Speaker 2: I think one thing to throw out and then we move on, but it's like, if you want to understand perceptually from dynasty, I think Miguel Vargas is a better bet than Vladimir Guerrero could tell Marte. And though age still works a little bit in favor, probably Kyle Tucker. Like if you want to make the bounce, like Kyle Tucker can make the big bounce back. He might be a really good buy low opportunity in dynasty. Cause he's still young enough, but like, I think Vargas has jumped over those players. That's the dynasty rise. So, inside the top 50. And when James says he's got them higher than me, I'm going to guess it's probably

close to the top 25. I mean, Vargas is a huge buy. So again, a couple of bigger names we're talking about, but both really good buys right now to get some equity in the off season for dynasty players. 00:13:45 Speaker 1: We are not going to bring up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. again, if I can help it. We're going to talk about another disappointing team, and that's the New York Mets. We're going to go to James' next name here with A.J. Ewing, who had a really solid rookie season as a whole. The Mets just had three really good rookies, so there is some bright spots there in Queens. But 11 homers, 25 stolen bases. He had 252 over his 492 plate appearances. Now, the second half was not as kind to A.J. Ewing as the first half. Does that knock him down a few spots for you, James, or is that just kind of an arbitrary thing for you? 00:14:16 Speaker 3: That's pretty arbitrary for me. Just, you know, given his age, right? Like he was in his age 21 season. He's a good defender, like a really good defender. And he stole 70 bases in 2025. So like this was a guy that was very intriguing coming into 2026. The big question was just, is there power there? Like how much power is there? And I always liked Ewing because he wasn't a slap hitter with his intent. Like, The power numbers weren't always there, but he was trying to pull the ball. He was trying to hit the ball in the air. That showed up in the big leagues with 11 homers in 120 games. Like if A.J. Ewing's just kind of in that 10 to 20 homer range, he's going to steal so many bases. The counting stats are going to be there because of the defense. I think the 252 average is about as low as it's going to get for him in the big leagues. So. uh, five categories here, like, you know, four and a half categories. If you want to say it's like 15 homers at peak, but, um, like this is the type of player where he's just going to go way higher in fantasy than people think during his prime years because of the stolen bases, plus the batting average, plus the fact he's going to be hitting high in the lineup. Uh, I just think Ewing's a screaming by this off season. 00:15:29 Speaker 2: Can I ask real quick, what's the range difference for you between Ewing and Carson Bench? Like where are you at on those? Cause I think that was like, that was actually literally a Rico and I like battled binge versus Ewing. And I think binge is the higher player, but like, what do you think about the difference between those two guys, James? 00:15:48 Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got binge higher. I think I would expect him to be valued higher. I have heard that just kind of like whispers that binge might have like a shoulder issue. So I'm not, I'm not, fully in on grabbing him for 2027 but good thing. 00:16:07 Speaker 2: There's not going to be any baseball in 2027 but yeah oh keep going but like. 00:16:10 Speaker 3: It just uh i think ewing is the one more likely to be undervalued by his owner right now. 00:16:16 Speaker 1: I totally agree well how about you do you have a huge gap between ewing and benj and are you also on james's side here that ewing is a is a big riser this. 00:16:24 Speaker 2: Year yeah ewing is no doubt a big riser because if if you do believe like 11 homers 25 stolen bases you future project just what he did off of this season into like a full, full season, you could probably squint and see 1530, right? So if there's, you know, any increases, like what I'm really curious about him in the longterm is to see like, what, what is the progression or regression? Is he a guy that continuously adds a little bit more barrel, gets the ball in the air a little bit more because like everything was solid. It's nothing elite, but it was solid numbers. If he is a progressor, then now we're talking about a guy, I think at peak that he could be a, 25, 50 guy, you know, or 25, 40. So that, that, that ends up getting like this top 25 potential upside. I've got binge higher because I do think binge can be like a 25, 25 guy, 30, 30 guy, that type of thing. The separation numerically probably seems a little bit higher. Like I think I've got, I mean, I got binge inside like the top 50 and Ewing is like right around the like 100 range. Where are you at on Ewing, James? Are you like top 50? 00:17:29 Speaker 3: I'm like kind of same as you on both guys. 00:17:31 Speaker 4: Okay. Okay. Yeah. 00:17:32 Speaker 2: So we're in the same general range, but, but the most important thing James said is Ewing is the prime example of the dynasty riser that you can go by. I think there's way more heat on bench right now, regardless if there's a shoulder thing going on before that becomes public, that Ewing is a guy that I'll bet you we're ranking around a hundred. I'll bet you leagues probably put as like a middle line, kind of cool outfielder. That's maybe more one 50 and he's got top 25 upside. So like that's the wide range of a player like him. The only difference with You know, like when you look at like a Miguel Vargas, like Miguel Vargas was this absolutely complete player. But in this first, mind you, AJ Ewing is 22 years old. Like I didn't love his like K percentage at 25, kind of a slower bat. Let's see what that looks like and progresses. But what's your floor now? 15-30. Again, he didn't play. He's under 500 played appearances, and he was 11-25. Your floor for this player is 15-30. And if you're getting him outside the top 100, phenomenal buy right now. Because you see, it wasn't a big, sexy name. So this is a great one that James picked. 00:18:32 Speaker 1: I can't remember, Welshi, who was on which side of the Ewing-Benj argument between us. You were. 00:18:37 Speaker 2: You were Ewing. I was Benj. But it was mid-year. I mean, listen, they did different stuff, and they had different runs, I think. 00:18:45 Speaker 4: Yeah. 00:18:45 Speaker 2: I think you, you had brought up the Ewing stuff like early, like when Ewing was on like a really good stretch or whatever, but either way, we're both kind

of right. You know, they were both like valuable players to hold and in dynasty, they both are, you know, two targeted players that are going to have a little bit different value, but they're, they're great. And, and they are just, if we're not talking about buys here for a second, they're just not questionably, they are dynasty risers. Those are players that have made some really big moves. 00:19:11 Speaker 1: Well, we'll chalk that up as a W for you. We got to keep tally this year on who has more W's and L's than our player takes this year. 00:19:17 Speaker 2: I'll take a lot of it. 00:19:18 Speaker 1: Well, we won't get our fair share of L's, but let's hope we get a W going forward here with Kobe Mayo because Kobe Mayo had a big breakout season. I think people in general had gotten a little bit sick of the Orioles prospects as a whole, as a group. It just had been a bit of a rough couple of years and Adley maybe wasn't as good as people thought, and Gunner maybe not, and Hirstead, and just like every prospect seemed to not quite live up to their expectations. Seemed like we took a huge step forward, though, for Kobe Mayo. 00:19:45 Speaker 2: 24 homers. 00:19:45 Speaker 1: He only hit. 228, but those 24 homers to go along with a 14% barrel. 48 hard hit rate his average exit velocity welsh went up four miles an hour this year and it looks like we could be looking at the perennial 25 to 30 home run guy here. 00:19:59 Speaker 2: Yeah so i think if you stare at the surface level for a second you see a guy that hit you know 24 homers and you know 400 at bats So you can easily see he could be a 30 home run guy. But then you go, oh man, look at that batting average, sub 300 OBP. He did only 228. His expected, and I got to go back to it, his expected batting average, like 235. Like that doesn't feel good. Then you look and you go, okay, well, you know, he hit some of the quadrants that I like to talk about. 13% barrel check, 19% launch angle check, 47% hard hit rate check. And then an elite, almost 30% pulled air percentage. All those things are great. But then there's this nasty strikeout rate of 30%. The thing that I want to focus on, though, was the second half of Kobe Mayo. And I think that's what makes him so interesting. By the way, maybe not a guy that has risen to a level that he should. Because pre-All-Star break, 193 batting average with 12 homers. Post-All-Star break, he hit 270. 270 with those 12 homers. Strikeouts down. And that's another big key. But the first half, he had a 32% K percentage. And that second half, when things started to click, 27, about 28%. But still, it's under the 30% marker. Absolutely destroyed righties too. Only problem is, is he can't hit, or I'm sorry, lefties. He can't hit righties. He hit 322 against left-handed pitchers. 16 of those homers came. He really struggled against righties where he hit 177. And there's a little bit of a platoon worry in there. But my hope and my focus here is, is this is a guy that was

very high in ranks. This is post-hype dynasty, by the way. He was very high, very high. And then we saw him perform and everything kind of came back down. Then he boosted up, but I don't think he boosted up to a level that's going to get people out of their minds. I look at him as a player that if he plays 90% of that second half, he's a 260 guy. He's 30 to 35 homers. Hard hit rate looks good. Profile looks great. And if he can cut that strikeout rate down just a tiny bit more like he did in the second half, Kobe Mayo goes from a post 200-y speculative type of guy that people like to have on their rosters to a top 100 player because that average, a 250 plus for Kobe Mayo. is a game winner for him. And maybe there's 40 home run potential in there as well. So I think Kobe Mayo is kind of a sneaky dynasty riser that, you know, he'll be up probably versus where he was at the beginning of the year in ranks. But I think this might be one of those that if you follow and track the second half at all and believe in it, then I think he can be a top 100 guy whenever, you know, the season goes on. So I'm very bought into the profile X guy. the second half for Kobe Mayo, but I'm very curious where James is on this one. Cause I, I think this one, this might be our first kind of like out of the field type of player, because you don't usually have guys that hit two 28 as like huge risers. 00:22:51 Speaker 1: Yeah, but I think there are reasons to be optimistic, like you said. The first half, nothing to write home about. But in the second half, a 145 WRC +. That's massive. And looking at the strikeout rate is concerning over the course of the whole season. But the swinging strike rate is only 12%, 13%. So it kind of indicates that maybe there's a little bit of wiggle room to go down on the strikeout rate. His contact rate's improved this year. James, what do you think is the ceiling for batting average that we're looking at next year? Could he hit 270 over the course of a whole year? Or is that maybe shooting too high? 00:23:19 Speaker 3: 270 I think is shooting too high uh he still struggles against righties um but I think I think the Orioles would love for him to be an everyday player for them next year he's just got to kind of keep his head above water against righties he will destroy lefties and uh I actually drafted him in my current draft champions um in the 18th round uh so same round as like Brooks Lee, Walker Jenkins, Max Muncy, Xander Bogarts, Kalen Culpepper. I took them right after Muncy. I think they're going to have fairly similar numbers. It's going to be sort of like a 245 average and you're hoping for 30 homers. I think Mayo's got monster raw power. We're a year early on him being an asset in batting average or OBP. 00:24:23 Speaker 2: And that's why the buy right now might make sense. Just to speak on the last thing, he upped his average exit velocity year over year from 87 miles per hour to 91.3. His max went to 116. And maybe one of the most important things, his bat speed. It's elite. It's top 10 percentile of the league. And he has gone close to about a mile per hour up each season. So he is reaching that. He's, again, like 75, almost 76 miles per hour, like elite bat speed with crazy hard hit. He controls those strikeouts. You know, sky's the limit. 00:25:00 Speaker 1: Let's move on and talk about another guy who probably could be considered in the post-type type of sleeper range, and that's Curtis Meade. Because over the first couple of years of his career, it wasn't huge sample sizes, but wasn't terribly impressive from 2023 to 2025 and then 2026 over his 88 games 17 homers six deals he hits 253 he's a part of a really fun trade going one for one with connelly early uh with the nationals and red sox trade and then he misses the remainder of the season i think it was his first game in boston where he ended up getting hurt and missing the rest of the year james what do you see uh from curtis mead this year that you think is sustainable going forward in his profile. 00:25:38 Speaker 3: Yeah i mean in Miguel Vargas, Kobe Mayo, and Curtis Meade, we've covered three prospects who are all in my top 10 at the peak of their prospect value. So three really high-end post-type breakout candidates or guys who've already broken out. Meade, it was a half season, so it's kind of borderline whether you want to count that as his breakout year, whether this is going to be his breakout year. But I mean, the combination of contact... like 6.6% swing strike rate with impact 246 ISO. It's just a really exciting combination. Um, you know, he's really optimized to, to pull fly balls. We know he's going to make a lot of contact. He doubled his walk rate last year. Uh, and I think there's a similarity with Miguel Vargas in that need is going to chip in a sneaky amount of stolen bases potentially. Um, you know, five steals in 240 at bats in 2025, six deals in 285 at bats last year. So just like a fully healthy season from Curtis Mead and you're, you're probably getting double digit steals and he's going to have a really nice positional eligibility too. He enters the year eligible at third base and first base and figures to pick up second base early in the year, uh, entering his age 26 season. I mean, this is just, uh, Such a screaming buy to me. I hope the price doesn't get out of control. 00:27:11 Speaker 1: Walsh, were you a Curtis Mead guy when he was coming up through the ranks? And what have you done in your ranking adjustments for him this year? 00:27:17 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I was I was I'm not sure. I don't want to say a guy. I think James always was big on him. I was decent. I interview. I've joked about this like longtime people of my stuff know this story. But like I interviewed Curtis Mead. It's probably one of it's the worst job I ever did as an interviewer. It's embarrassing. I didn't release it. It was so bad. I didn't release the interview. That's how bad it was. Like I've, I've done a

couple and I would pick on one or two players. One specifically I can think of that are really, really bad interviewers. Curtis was not that he was so cool. I just did such a, so I always think about that. But one of the things I remember asking him, which I think always kept me back a little bit, but also a testament to him. I remember he had that breakout season with the Rays. He came to the Arizona fall league and I was like, Oh man, you know, you played in the, I think this was post COVID maybe. And it was like, you know, Oh, during COVID, I think he played in Australia and then he got to the Rays. You had this big breakout season. And I remember asking him like, you know, what did the Rays do with you? And he was just like, nothing. You know what he said in his beautiful Australian accent. He was just like nothing at all. He's like, they didn't have him do anything. They didn't have him work any. They just had him do what he normally does. So there's always just like natural raw talent. I was just, wasn't ever sure what it was going to materialize and look like. But I think, I think I agree. This actually might be like the sneakiest of the guys, because I think you can have a real good question of like, did the breakout happen? I don't think the breakout happened. It happened for a period of time where it started to be exciting and then everything got kind of taken back. But I don't think the real version of the breakout is quite there because it's like, you know, he hit 247 and then in July, all of a sudden he's like 360 and then bam out. That future version, it might look similar to a Miguel Vargas. Maybe not quite in the stolen base market. I mean, he does a little bit of everything. Solid, hits the ball well. He doesn't whiff. He doesn't strike out. Like, he's just probably a Miguel Vargas light. But at what cost less? I mean, he's probably in Dynasty. James, I don't know where you have him. I'm not sure Dynasty drappers are going to If you had a new restarted draft, do you think people are drafting him inside the top 200? Assuming they're not like. 00:29:23 Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely. Because I tried to rank him high on my ranking update and I had him like in the 100 to 150 range. And somebody asked like what I didn't like about Curtis Meade. They were like, why aren't you higher on Curtis Meade? I was trying to be high on him, but I love him. I think he's a top 150 guy. I think borderline top 100, if you really want to lean into the age and the fact he's a position player. These are the types of guys that... really really uh make you in dynasty like if you can get a 25 year old 26 year old entering their prime and then you get that three four five year run like that's that's gold so um you know i would definitely be prioritizing. 00:30:13 Speaker 2: Me and it's perfectly well said too that this is the time these are the type of guys that help win leagues i think there's there's like pillars there's Obviously, your core players. I think the players that you can get in on right before the breakout. And then there's also kind of a buying in on a few of the older players that really fall that help kind of fill out your roster. And then I guess the fourth pillar would just be being able to draft prospects properly and be able to manage that. So there's so much more work that goes into Dynasty. And again, I think Curtis Meade is just a super sneaky one that does a little bit of everything. I think the breakout is coming on a full season because he does look like he could be like a 25, 10, 20, maybe even a 25, 15 type of guy that hits at the top of the lineup and scores a lot of runs. So he does a little bit of everything well and is going to be a big benefit in points league. So get him, buy him outside the top 200 from people. You're going to get a pretty good deal. 00:31:08 Speaker 1: The thought of him hitting bombs over the green monster for the next, I think they have him under control for the next four or five years. It's a, it's a pretty enticing thought for a guy and a lot of guys today who are Maybe a couple of years ago, we didn't think too much of, and they have really recouped their value over the course of 2026 and heading into 2027 as well. We got one more riser, and it's kind of the same thing. A guy that three years ago, nobody really would have cared about Jake Bowers. Maybe last year they started to a little bit. He had a 115 WRC +. He showed some signs. And then this year, the full-blown breakout. 26 homers, 11 steals. He hit 266. It was a 143 WRC +. He's had some amazing at-bats throughout the postseason. A 129 WRC +, over his 48 postseason at-bats. Welsh, how high have you moved Jake Bowers over the last couple of months? 00:31:52 Speaker 2: He's tricky. And I kind of set us up when I said a pillar is being able to know when to buy in on some of the older-ish players. And he's one of those guys. He's not Curtis Meade. He's 31 years old. You know, this is five years older. So Meade is going to be significantly higher. But Bowers is completely transformed. I mean, we know it's funny enough. Bowers looks like A pseudo similar final boss of what Curtis Meade could be. You know what I mean? Like, I mean, the batting average is maybe quite there, but almost a 400 OBP, 26 homers, 11 stolen bases, scored 93 runs. Like what you're hoping Curtis Meade becomes and you can have for six, seven, eight years is Jake Bowers. The only difference here is Bowers. You're going to probably have this for at best, maybe three. But I also work very much in Dynasty on three-year windows. Everybody does it different. There's totality value. There's five-year. I'm very hyper-focused on like a three-year window. And Bowers is a guy that I think for three years can help, can continue to help you if you believe. And I do believe. Incredible bat speed changes. I mean, we talked before about Kobe Mayo with the 75, almost 76. Well, he's over 76. And 2024 Bowers was rocking like a 73 mile

per hour swing. It's up 76 and a half miles per hour right now. It's elite bat speed. It's, you know, nearing elite hard hit. I mean, everything he did from the hitting profile standpoint, he completely changed. He's still like a whiff and strikeout issue guy, but if he were to continue in Milwaukee, I think that's a big question, you know, likely champion 14% barrel rate, great launch angle, hard hit rate, 52% elite. He walks a ton. He doesn't pull the ball in the air quite like I like. But my main point to this is Bowers was a completely irrelevant waiver wire piece in Dynasty. And if you were starting new redrafts here, I think he's a guy that's still just going to go dramatically cheap. But I think he's a guy that fills out your roster and allows you... This is the type of player that allows you to grow your prospects, especially if you want to put higher valuations on them and you want to reach for it. Bowers is the type of guy that when you spent... third-round pick on McGonigal or a fourth-round pick on Sebastian Walcott, and they're not getting production right away. Bowers, and I know with different positions, but Bowers is a guy that gets into the lineup. I think what he did was sustainable, and I think that's really my main takeaway from here. I really love the hitting profile. I still think there's a multitude of years in. He hit both righties and lefties well. He hit pretty consistent first half and second. He just did all the stuff. So though he is older, I think he got Three years under your window. I love owning him right now, though he went from free to costing a little bit. He's not going to be drafted inside the top 250 probably of dynasty, fresh new dynasty drafts. Might be a little bit harder to trade for him in those formats. But yeah, I think he's a guy that we should pay attention to because we don't usually talk about 30 plus 30 year old plus players rising in dynasty. 00:34:50 Speaker 1: Well, it's really interesting, James. When you look at 2024 to 2025, the two biggest gainers in bat speed were both Brewers. Bryce Terang went four and a half miles up and we saw the big breakout for him. And then last year, Bowers, as Welsh mentioned, also had a huge increase, 2.7 miles an hour on the bat speed. Now it plateaued this year, but at an elite number, which is in the 90th plus percentile here. You get to watch Jake Bowers more than most people being a Brewers fan. do you think these are sustainable changes over these last couple of years and we can see a few more good seasons into his thirties? Or do you think this is maybe more of a time to sell? 00:35:25 Speaker 3: Uh, probably the latter. I mean, like, I'm not saying he won't sustain them, but I do think this is probably the high point of his dynasty value. Just, you know, having this year as a 30 year old, your walk year, um, I don't know. I, I'm just curious to see where he ends up because like the vibes around the brewers are so great. Like you hear about other clubhouses where it's just like the exact opposite. So, I mean, I just, I don't want to. go full in and then have him like sign with the giants or something like that. Or like the Mariners, God forbid. But like the, you know, if, if I just knew he was going to be with the brewers again next year, I'd be all in on like close to a repeat. I'm just a little iffy about like, where, where is he going to be playing? But I mean, he deserved everything he did this year. I had him on some DC teams and it was, it was a blast. The first base outfield eligibility. So great. But yeah, great guy to bring up here. Of course. 00:36:26 Speaker 1: Awesome player. It looks like he'll be drinking some champagne pretty soon, but we won't necessarily jinx that for James and his brewers. We're going to keep it going with some followers in a second, but first, basketball season is here, and there's a new way to trade on it. It's a new prediction market called PolyMarket. It is a prediction market, which is essentially a stock exchange for sports. You can buy in and sell out on your terms. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. Every bucket, every block, every scintillating matchup in basketball trades on Polymarket. So download the Polymarket app today and use code FPPOD when you sign up. That's F-P-P-O-D. You get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Now, James, you mentioned Seattle, and we're going to talk about your first faller here, and that's Josh Naylor, who somehow, with first percentile sprint speed, has back-to-back 30 stolen base seasons today. But things really did fall apart for him here in his first full year in Seattle. He played 152 games, managed just 10 homers. The batting average came down to 261. The counting stats were awful, and part of that is the Mariners' lineup, but just 58 runs and 57 RBI over the course of the full season. The steals are totally baffling. I don't know if you have any knowledge on how he's able to do that, because I'm still not really sure. But what makes him a faller for you? Is it mostly just the fact that he plays in Seattle? 00:37:46 Speaker 3: It's a variety of things. You know, I just. 00:37:50 Speaker 3: I have no idea what the Mariners are doing, giving out that contract. I mean, it, I think it's like, we might be a year away. If he repeats what he did this past year, they might be looking at that as a sunk cost, like less than halfway into the deal. Like he's one of maybe the most notorious, like bad teammates in the game. Like nobody likes Josh Naylor. Like nobody that's played with him likes him. None of his managers like him. That's why it's so confusing why he got that deal. Like the 30 steals, like, It's almost like a parlor trick. That's very cool that you're a first baseman who can steal 30 bases, but I would like more than 10 homers and 57 RBI from my starting first baseman or even my starting corner

infielder in Dynasty. I just think it's hard to get the stats you need at the end of the day if you're taking that much of a power hit from your first baseman. he's really never been a great OBP guy. So like in those formats, he's even less valuable. And I just, I worry, you know, whenever like the bat speed really starts to fall off, like, you know, he could just be a guy who's almost unplayable. So I'd rather get out. Like if you consider this getting out like a year early after this terrible season, but I would rather get out now than just hope that he bounces back because I just, I think there's enough name value here. People look at the contract and feel like there's, there's a potential bounce back here, but I would just like to rid myself of Josh Taylor and dynasty. 00:39:18 Speaker 1: Well, do you see any world where he can recoup his previous value? Could he hit 30 homers again? Could he hit 300 again? Or are those days long gone? 00:39:27 Speaker 2: I just don't think he can do it for the Mariners. I mean the, sometimes I think we get in speculative worlds with some of the like power suppression ballparks. Like, you know, when Rafael Devers goes to the Giants, everyone's like, oh, I don't know. You know, and then he's fine. But like Seattle, we just Seattle, Seattle. Though Randy Rosarena was able to get through that, but you always build in your brain. You're just like, well, I'm really worried if he's there. He had 10 homers this year. And I agree, like the stolen bases are cute and they're fun and stuff like that. But the parts don't equal a sum that we really want to buy right now. He didn't score runs this year. He didn't hit homers. His average is okay. He's not an OBP guy. One of the things that held up his value was when he was like, you know, almost like what Sal Stewart was doing, where it was like, look at all these runs and these RBIs. And he, you know, even if he hits 20 homers, he's got 115 RBI and 98 runs like that holds up. It's just not happening there. And by the way, he is kind of a bad, I've heard that a multitude of times, kind of a weirdo too. Like I've seen, not that that means anything, but like in camps and stuff like that. He's an oddball, but also, like, can he find it again? Like, he's got the bat, I suppose. You would guess it. But you saw some major regression points just in his game. His barrel rate went to the lowest since, what is it, 2020. His launch angle, the lowest since 2022. His hard hit rate. lowest since 2020. Grady doesn't strike out. Grady steals bases. But the profile of who he is as a hitter is going away. And I think he was a guy that just, I think people will still prop him up because of the stolen bases. But you can get those in other spots. I mean, he is becoming no different than one of those outfielders that people are like, I don't know if I want to buy into all those, you know, this guy doesn't have power and I get those stolen bases and empty other stats. Josh Naylor is kind of empty

on those other stats right now. So as long as he's in Seattle, I'm not really a crazy big buyer. I do think he should fall. And I don't know if he'll have fallen as much as he probably should in Dynasty, but he is definitely someone that I would be trying to get out from right now just because I don't know what it looks like. 00:41:33 Speaker 1: I think you probably can. I think there's enough name value. He's still on the right side of 30. You can put together some talking points that if you wanted to get out from under Naylor, I don't think you're taking pennies on the dollar necessarily. But yeah, it's been Not a very graceful couple of years for sure since he's gone to Seattle. I mean, the first couple of weeks in Seattle, the first couple of months, I guess, were all right. But this past year was awful. Those damn Canadians. What are you going to do with those damn Canadians? Let's talk about Spencer Strider, though, the next fall. And this one's very sad because it did look like Spencer Strider was going to be. the best pitcher in baseball for a decade or so following his debut in 2022 had a great 2023 and then he just hasn't been able to stay healthy when he has been pitching hasn't even looked very good over the last couple years specifically in 2026 i mean he only threw 39 innings it was a 531 era 136 whip i don't know if i really trust him anymore but then you look below the surface he still gets whiffs on his secondary he's not really on his fastball anymore but just the health is the main concern here for me with spencer strider Well, again, I'll ask a similar question to Josh Naylor. Is there any chance in your mind that we get back to peak Strider or are those days long behind us? 00:42:42 Speaker 4: Sure. 00:42:43 Speaker 2: This isn't a segment where we're like, these guys are worthless and they're going to be failures and nothing can ever happen. It's these guys have fallen in dynasty value and we're giving the reasons why they have. And could Spencer Strider recoup this? I think it's a possibility. Super talented guy, super young still, still 27. I think you could build a narrative around... the injuries holding him back so much and being a portion of what some of these struggles have been. But in the same token, though, it like almost outside of his rookie year, if you take every other year since there, his fastball velo has dropped every single season. That's a very concerning sign. He was up to 98.2 in 2022. Every year it has dropped a full mile per hour except this past year. but it's still dropped. He was down to 95.5 in 2025, 95.1 this past year. I don't know if four years of injury, like I think there's a fastball story that's been telling you it's not as good. And remember, you know, the big thing about Strider for a period of time, at least, and this changed this kind of this past year was he was always a two pitch pitcher. You know, he was fastball and he was slider. He was the 2025. It was 80. It's almost 85 percent of those pitches were fastball or slider. He did a little bit of curveball in 2024. Then he threw four different pitches this past year, had to lower his foreseeing fastball usage. And it's equated to not great results. He gets the K's, but his walk rates bad. His ERA was really bad. And if you want to look at stuff plus numbers, he's had, I mean, I guess, I guess technically he increased a little bit from last year, but he had a decrease in his slider stuff. Plus his curveball stuff. Plus every single pitch was under a hundred, a hundred, you know, being your baseline marker and lowest location. Plus of his career, 97, 94, 90 is stuff location and pitching. Plus those are all really bad numbers. So previously highly talented player who gets still gets whiffs. Those are big pluses. Could he change it? If he's super healthy, he figures out that pitch mix and he stops walking guys. It was over 12%. 00:44:54 Speaker 3: He could. 00:44:55 Speaker 2: Is there the potential that he's a buy-in dynasty? 00:44:58 Speaker 4: Maybe. 00:44:59 Speaker 2: The reason it's not is because I think his name value is still there. And that's why it's important to show him in the fallers because he probably should be a lot lower in form. And this is someone I traded for Spencer Strider like at the beginning of the year on the low in leagues. Like I own him in a couple spots. And I just, I don't think The idea of Strider in his age and what he was does not equate to where the value should be. So I think he's a pretty big dynasty follower right now. 00:45:25 Speaker 1: James, what do you think about Strider coming off of a Tommy John surgery that he's had, the internal brace procedure that he hasn't really bounced back from? What do you think about his future? 00:45:35 Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not really trading for him. I don't think... I could get enough for him to move him. But if I could, I probably would. I just kind of think he's broken at this point. But, you know, I hope I'm wrong about that, but not someone I'm drafting or buying cheap. 00:45:54 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do a couple more quick fallers here, and then we will get to a couple of prospects. James, I want to ask you about Trey Savage, who you have as a faller here. An amazing World Series, an amazing playoff run that he had in 2025 that obviously fell a little bit short for the Blue Jays. But Trey Savage looked like he had– A very bright future. This season is all right over his 20 starts. It was a 3.69 ERA, a 1.14 whip, but still a double-digit walk rate. Not a ton of strikeouts this year. Why do you have him as a faller heading into 27? 00:46:22 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, he's still young. He could definitely get back on track, but I just think the walk rate has been steadily an issue, really, at almost every level, especially in the upper levels. And it didn't hold him back in 2025. Uh, but he didn't improve on it in 2026 and actually got worse to 11.7%. Um, you know, 12 and a half K minus walk four,

four, eight Sierra, uh, just kind of looks like, uh, you know, uh, a mid rotation type of guy, like maybe, um, but just, you know, the way people were talking about him after last year's post season versus the way, uh, I'm talking about him now. Like it's, it's a pretty big drop, right? Yeah. 00:47:12 Speaker 1: Welsh, what do you think about your Savage? 00:47:14 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Jim said it right. I think there's still like, there's a lot of room for growth. I think the perception of like that playoff run to last season, I think it leveled off a lot of stuff. I mean, this is a guy that he had a three, six, nine ERA and expected ERA of three, three, seven, which still looks good, but the walk rate and strikeout rate, they just don't really equate. Is there going to be a big mix? I mean, the split finger still had like a 38% whiff rate, which is solid. And his slider was decent. He wasn't giving up a bunch of batting average. I'm not sure this guy, he doesn't feel like, like Spencer Strider. Like I, would you take a savage or strider at this point, James? 00:47:54 Speaker 3: Oh, I mean like strider. I mean, you savage by a lot. Like he's. 00:48:00 Speaker 2: Yeah. 00:48:01 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:48:01 Speaker 2: That's what I meant. Yeah, that's exactly what I meant. I actually think a lot of people in Dynasty might have those guys in a very similar range and a similar type of idea. So my point was, these are not quite the same. I don't think Savage did anything where you're like, man, this career might be over. I think there's still a lot of pluses. But I definitely just don't think like I think Savage might have been seen as like a top 10 or 15 fantasy dynasty pitcher coming out of last season. And I think that's definitely been muted. I think he's a solid pitcher. There could be more, you know, in the tank or maybe he just floors out. But I definitely think his value has changed relatively dramatically. But still, he's over Strider. 00:48:41 Speaker 1: Let's hope that he can figure some things out. Maybe he adds a pitch. I mean, that's that's the splitter is so, so good. I mean, the fastball hasn't been super great, but we don't have much to cheer for in Toronto right now. So hoping that Trey Savage can figure it out. One more follower here, Welsh. It's Mikel Garcia. And it seemed like most of the Royals had a bit of a hangover coming off of the WBC. And it didn't seem like Mikel Garcia really got back on track over the course of the year. I mean, only 82 games, but three homers, five steals. He hit 268. quite a fall from grace after his big 2025 season. 00:49:13 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:49:13 Speaker 2: I kind of think michael actually kind of vibes similar to the savage thing i don't think he's like a bad player um you know some of the things that you still liked about him even though they were like smaller degrees like doesn't strike out he walks you know his batting average is expected batting average is better than his batting average my

problem with him is i think like we dreamed on these like elite stolen bases and You know, he was able to optimize like his hard hit rate and be able to pull up like really cool power numbers. And all of a sudden it's like, wow, at third base, can you get like a 1530 or 2030 guy? I think that just might be gone. His barrel rate decreases, hard hit rate really decreased. You saw average exit velocity went down almost two miles per hour. I think he might just be kind of a jag. He's just a cool, okay player. I'm just not sure how relevant he is. He is only 26 years old, so there could be some alterations, but I just want to point out that like Yassavage in that he's not done and he's not over, his fantasy dynasty value has definitely changed. Mikel Garcia should not be seen as a top 100 guy like he definitely was last season because I think the counting stats really look mid. 00:50:15 Speaker 1: What do you think, James? Is he a top 150 guy, 175, or even is that maybe too high? 00:50:23 Speaker 3: You know, I had him outside my top 200, but after the fact, I kind of regretted not having him a little bit higher. I mean, he did deal with a decent amount of injuries last year. But I see a lot of stuff Welsh sees, too. I'm not sure how much to blame the injuries and how much to just be worried that this is just who he is. But the lack of stolen bases... He has to be a 20-plus steal guy. Otherwise, he's just very, very boring, like Walsh was saying. I think we might know in spring training, or at least whatever that is, whenever Garcia starts playing in games, I'll just be paying attention to how well is he moving? Is he looking to steal bases? Because that was such a huge part of his value, and it just disappeared last year. 00:51:15 Speaker 1: It felt a little bit Geraldo Perdomo-y in the sense that they both had a full season where everything seemed to go right. A ton of plate appearances and then just weren't able to follow it up the year after. Even though Perdomo played the whole year, I mean Garcia didn't, but it seemed fairly similar profiles in 2025 statistically. And then both of them kind of fell off a little bit here. Guys, before we wrap it up though, you have a couple of deeper prospects you wanted to mention earlier. And James, your name is Jared, I'm probably going to butcher this, Gridlinger, I believe is how it's pronounced. I might be messing that up, but a two-way player who was born in 2009, if you guys want to feel a little bit old, drafted by the Angels. He's put up amazing pitching stats, amazing hitting stats as an outfielder as well. What do you make of the 17-year-old going forward and why should people have him on their radar? 00:52:01 Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, I just wanted to shout out Grindlinger because I had him 12th on my FYPD rankings a while ago, and I would have him higher now. Six-foot-three, lefty hitting, former two-way player, had really elite contact data as a high schooler with a wood bat. And one of the youngest players in his class, obviously that six-foot-three frame is exciting. I love betting on former two way players because there's typically like more untapped potential there when they focus on one thing. And I just think the combination of like youth size, bat to ball, there was some doubts about how much power he was going to get to. 00:52:48 Speaker 4: But. 00:52:50 Speaker 3: Like from what I've heard and seen, he looks great out in unofficial games. And I just think he's, He's a big-time target for me in FYPD, Grinlinger. 00:53:03 Speaker 1: Is he for sure done as a pitcher? There's no chance he's going to pitch again? 00:53:07 Speaker 4: Yep. Yeah? Okay. 00:53:09 Speaker 3: Just an outfielder now. 00:53:11 Speaker 1: Just an outfielder. I mean, it's crazy just looking at the pitching stats that he had last year. I mean, it shows how talented he is that you can pitch to a 0-8-5 ERA, have a 6-0 record and say, yeah, no, I don't need to worry about that anymore. 00:53:21 Speaker 2: It was like Cags. Cags was launching 99 and everything like that and took him off because of the bat. I mean, the bat's the, I think that's the place. 00:53:30 Speaker 1: The bat is what, I mean, you're likely to have a longer career as a hitter than as a pitcher in most cases. So it seems like it's a pretty wise thing. Welsh, your name is, again, I might butcher this name, Ty Pete, I think. 00:53:42 Speaker 2: Yes. This is the true not playing in the prospect world or dynasty world. I put out a tweet a couple days or like a week ago, and I said, it's one of those stupid generic tweets. I was just like, you probably have Ty Pete too low. And that was just to everybody in the world. Uh, Taipeet is really special. And you know, what's really funny is like, I was like three years too early on him. I don't know if James even remembers. Like I had one of those years I would do these like prospect shows where I'm like breakout, dah, dah, dah. I want to say it was like two years ago. I had Taipeet on there because I think he's wildly athletic. He came up in the class of, um, cold Emerson and, uh, God, I'm forgetting who the other person was. It was Cole Emerson, Ty Peet, and whatever it was. That was kind of that grouping, maybe Cole Young or something. It was that group of guys. Ty had been this kind of unpolished player, but unquestionably always the most athletic. Speed, power, everything like that. Batting average didn't come together. He gets traded to the Cardinals, and guess what? Cardinals... They found a way to lock this up. By the way, Ty Pete's only 21 years old. He's playing in the Fall League. In the regular season, 13 homers, 16 stolen bases, and under 300 at-bats. You can project that out. Also hit. 296. He's out in the Arizona Fall League. He looks like one of the best players out here. 94 average exit velocity out here. He's hit a. 112 on the max EV, and his hard hit rate is 56%, and he is a triples god. He had four straight games with triples. You're

obviously going to hit in the Fall League, but I'm telling you, He's wildly athletic. He has the projected. He's a projectable type of player that could be a 30-30 guy. He might have strikeout problems, which he still kind of has out here. But I don't know how many people really have him as like a top 100 prospect. So from a dynasty perspective, that puts him probably in the four to five hundreds. I think he's a big riser. He's going to get a lot more attention in the next couple of weeks just because of the Arizona Fall League. And I think he legit has a like you're going to see more and more from him. But my point is, this is a really deep prospect. Pay attention to Taipeet because I think he's wildly talented. He's very close to the majors, maybe even into next season. And if you get some of those strikeouts figured out, like the Cardinals have done with some of these players, look out 30-30 in the future for Taipeet. 00:55:51 Speaker 1: Yeah, that was going to be my question. You think he can debut next season other than like a September call-up? You think he can be up in time to make a fantasy impact? 00:55:59 Speaker 2: Anything's possible. 00:56:00 Speaker 1: For both of you guys, James, what do you think? Do you think he can make an impact next year? 00:56:04 Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think it would be because he's not deserving uh i just i don't know because the you know 21 games at double a the cardinals have the deepest system in the game i i can't imagine them really forcing him up or something like that you know he's he's entering his age 21 season like i think just have him split the year between double a and triple a and then he's ready in 2028 yeah. 00:56:31 Speaker 2: I think like the arizona fall like puts a lot more pressure on it and they have some outfield space but they're just so deep You know, there's so they Joshua Baez is up there right now, like it'll be a little bit harder for push. But whole point is, is deep, deep looking Jared Greenlinger and type two players in Dynasty. You definitely want to pay attention to. 00:56:47 Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to seeing type because I'll be out in Arizona next week. James, I think you're going to be out there as well, if I'm not mistaken, at the Arizona Fall League for first pitch again. 00:56:56 Speaker 3: Absolutely. I'll be getting in. 00:56:58 Speaker 2: And guess who else will be there? me all three of us we're all going to be together. 00:57:02 Speaker 1: We're all going to be there and the next show you guys here on this feed will be the live show that welsh and i'll be doing with some surprise guests in arizona who knows maybe we bring james up on the stage and bring him on back-to-back shows who knows it's going to happen it's a live show anything could happen but we really appreciate you coming on the show today james before we get you out of here where can people keep up with you obviously baseball america but should anybody uh is there anything people should be on the lookout for coming podcasts or articles over the next couple weeks. 00:57:26 Speaker 3: Yeah, you can just follow me at RealJRAnderson. I tweet everything from there. And I have my top 50 dynasty first baseman article coming on Wednesday. And then my big top 100 rookies for 2027 article, hopefully not this upcoming Monday, but the following Monday, the week we're heading to Arizona. 00:57:53 Speaker 1: James does a hell of a job in the prospect space, so make sure you're following him. Welsh does an amazing job in the prospect space, so make sure you're following him as well. Two of the absolute best here breaking it down. the 12 biggest risers and fallers. If you guys haven't done so already, like the video, drop a comment below. Who are your biggest risers and fallers heading into next year? And make sure you guys subscribe to the channel because we have a ton of stuff coming. We've been a little bit quiet over the last couple of weeks, just a couple of podcasts. You guys are not ready for all the stuff we have planned coming into 2027. So make sure you guys subscribing. Be on the lookout for the newest videos. But that will do it for us. For James Anderson and Chris Welsh, I'm Joel Rico. We'll talk to you next time right here on the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast. 00:58:30 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasyprosmlb.