Пълният препис на 19136 Holmesburg Deep Dive: Why Northeast Philly Rentals Are Suddenly Sitting

WEBVTT 00:00:00.050 --> 00:00:09.166 One year ago on this show, I reported that zip code 19136 was renting in 33 days, right alongside the best of the Northeast. 00:00:09.506 --> 00:00:20.297 Today, the same zip code is at 55 days on market with a$225 gap between what landlords are asking and what tenants are actually paying. 00:00:20.646 --> 00:00:27.835 Meanwhile, across the city in South Philly, 19145 just posted 33 days and a$77 gap. 00:00:28.254 --> 00:00:40.415 For as long as I've been doing this, Northeast Philly was the dependable market, steady row homes, steady families, steady rents, while other parts of the city rode booms and busts. 00:00:40.451 --> 00:00:41.759 So what happened? 00:00:42.085 --> 00:00:45.441 Why is the Northeast suddenly underperforming South Philly? 00:00:45.768 --> 00:00:59.292 Today we're digging into 19136, Holmesburg, Penny Park, Winchester Park, and I'm going to show you exactly what the data says changed, because the answer is part market shift and part self-inflicted. 00:00:59.332 --> 00:01:03.088 If you own in Northeast, this episode is your wake-up call. 00:01:03.343 --> 00:01:04.388 Let's get into it. 00:01:04.588 --> 00:01:16.209 Welcome back to the Philly Landlord Guy, the show built for rental owners, property managers, and investors who want real, no-fluff facts about Philadelphia market, neighborhood by neighborhood. 00:01:16.605 --> 00:01:25.243 I'm your host, Yuriy Skripnichenko, the guy with the crazy last name, licensed real estate broker and certified property manager here in the city. 00:01:25.828 --> 00:01:29.787 So let's get into it, and let's start with the citywide baseline first. 00:01:30.132 --> 00:01:39.346 Across Philadelphia in September, there were 1,659 new units listed and 1,185 units rented. 00:01:39.695 --> 00:01:42.192 The median listed price was 1,800. 00:01:42.466 --> 00:01:45.957 The median rented price was 1,775. 00:01:46.329 --> 00:01:51.638 A$25 gap, about 1%, citywide landlords are pricing accurately. 00:01:52.287 --> 00:01:59.852 And the big citywide story this month, days on the market jumped to 58, up from 46 reported in August. 00:02:00.234 --> 00:02:01.959 The seasonal slowdown is here. 00:02:02.368 --> 00:02:06.768 School year moves are done, and we're entering the slowest season stretch of the year. 00:02:07.253 --> 00:02:16.633 Months of supply 2.5, with October inventory at 4,072 units, actually down from 4,400 a year ago. 00:02:17.133 --> 00:02:20.401 Now I'll be fair to the Northeast right up front. 00:02:20.429 --> 00:02:26.383 19136, 55 days is roughly in the line with the citywide 58. 00:02:26.848 --> 00:02:30.776 Part of what's happening here is the same seasonal slowdown everyone's feeling. 00:02:31.185 --> 00:02:45.777 But hold on to that$25 citywide gap, because 19136 version of that number is nine times bigger, And South Philly, in the same slow months, rented in 33 days. 00:02:45.932 --> 00:02:48.705 That contrast is today's story. 00:02:48.906 --> 00:02:54.323 So let's establish what the 19136 zip code actually is. 00:02:54.716 --> 00:03:00.627 It sits in the lower northeast along the Delaware River, split down the middle by, Pennypack Creek. 00:03:01.027 --> 00:03:07.365 About, 36 to 39,000 residents, roughly 13,000 households. 00:03:07.769 --> 00:03:19.467 The main neighborhoods Holmesburg, the historic core along Frankford Ave, one of the oldest settlements in the Northeast, plus Pennypack, Winchester Park, and the northern edge of Mayfair. 00:03:19.930 --> 00:03:31.620 The housing stock, classic Northeast product, row homes and twins built primarily in 1940s, with Pennypack Park has its green spine running through the middle. 00:03:32.192 --> 00:03:48.050 This is more suburban feeling than the Riverwards and it's definitely lower density, around 6,500 to 8,000 people per square mile versus, 30,000-plus in the South Philly zip codes we've cover-covered before. 00:03:48.665 --> 00:03:52.956 Median home value about$236,000 per Zillow. 00:03:53.385 --> 00:03:58.615 It's up 5% over the past year, and here is important detail. 00:03:59.049 --> 00:04:03.562 Homes for sale here go pending in about 16 days. 00:04:03.806 --> 00:04:09.783 Remember that number because the sales market being hot while the rental market stalls tells us something. 00:04:10.658 --> 00:04:13.336 This is a working-class transitioning community. 00:04:13.729 --> 00:04:21.451 Median household income runs roughly from 57 to$65,000, depending on the source and the year. 00:04:21.833 --> 00:04:31.706 It's solidly below It solidly below the citywide trajectory of places like 19145 which just crossed$72,000. 00:04:32.122 --> 00:04:39.117 Hallsburg specifically is classified as lower middle income with childhood poverty rate about 26%. 00:04:39.117 --> 00:04:44.966 So the average base is working families, price sensitive, needing three-bedroom product. 00:04:44.983 --> 00:04:50.627 And in fact, rentals in 19136 are mostly three-plus bedrooms. 00:04:50.826 --> 00:04:54.982 So transit, and here is a structural disadvantage versus South Philly. 00:04:55.307 --> 00:04:58.021 19136 has no subway. 00:04:58.360 --> 00:05:02.918 The Market-Frankford El ends, at Frankford Terminal, a ZIP code away. 00:05:03.238 --> 00:05:13.132 What you have here is the bus network along Frankford and Torresdale Avenues and the Holmesburg Junction Regional Rail Station on the Trenton Line. 00:05:13.170 --> 00:05:21.077 Compare that to 19145 and 19148, sitting directly on the Broad Street Line. 00:05:21.423 --> 00:05:25.887 For a tenant base that increasingly values transit, matters more every year. 00:05:26.088 --> 00:05:34.384 So the anchors here is Pennypack Park, over 1,600 acres of, parkland, a real amenity. 00:05:34.668 --> 00:05:40.680 The Frankford Avenue commercial corridor and the Holmesburg deep history, including the old prison site. 00:05:41.079 --> 00:05:43.548 It's a stable, livable family neighborhood. 00:05:43.576 --> 00:05:49.283 This