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Al Jazeera podcasts Today, gen Z protests make way for
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a military coup and Madagascar.
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Breaking news out of Madagascar. The army has taken control
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of the country and lawmakers in the National Assembly have
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voted to impeach the president.
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But is this new leadership the type of change protesters
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had in mind. I'm Molica Bilal and this is the
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take before we continue with today's show. If you're watching this,
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while you're there. It really helps the show.
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My name is Rose Momagne. I'm a polic school ris
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canonists and Tambusaai. Thanks for having.
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Me well, Rose, thank you for being here. Welcome to
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the Take. In your role as political risk analyst, you
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made a prediction a few weeks ago as youth protests
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against the government of Madagascar ramped up, you foreshadowed a coup.
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Fast forward to this week and the president and Ron Joelina,
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has fled the country. Ninety nine percent of parliament has
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voted to impeach him for abandoning his post, and now
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the military has declared itself in charge. What made you
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think Madagascar was heading in this direction?
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Well, I mean, the main thing is that I've been
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monitoring the situation in Madagascar for many years now, and
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there was a build up of tensions between Rajulina and
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the business elites that put him in power after the
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coup of two thousand and nine. And so my biggest
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concern when I was monitoring maybe three years ago, was
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that how Rajelina managed these tensions, because the problem was
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that a lot of these elites no longer felt like
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Gradulina promoted and represented their interests.
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And so in the last three years of Agelia has
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really struggles to manage this.
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In the last I would say in the last few months,
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I started to see the cracks, particularly because of one
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and more reports of resistance and this sent against Raygulina
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in the army, partly because of some of the restructuring
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that he's done over the years that haven't been well
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received by some veteran leaders in the army. In Madagascar,
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the institutions are very weak. The army is the only
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or the most organized institution, the institution with the most legitimately,
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but because of how informal power structures are in Madagascar,
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the army does not act independently. They act a lot
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of the times in the interests of these business elits,
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and so when is falling off, is falling out of
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these elits. My concern is how the army reacts. In
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the past, they've used protests as justification to remove the
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president from power, and so when this protest broke out
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a few weeks ago, that was my concern.
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That these protests are quite huge. It provides a perfect.
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Opportunity for the army to remove Ragulina in the name
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of the people. But also at the time I was
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concerned at Regina, but I also see it as an
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opportunity to basically remove this business elite from the governance system.
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And so he dismissed the prime minister, dissolved his cabinet,
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and so that confirms as true that Ragelina was trying
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to also use the protests as justification to remove some
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politicians or some government officials that he believes have links
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to this business elite.
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And so he was trying to basically kill two birds
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with one stone.
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But like I said in one of the articles, I
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wrote that that was a very dangerous move for the
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president because you know, it could lead to a strong
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retaliation from this business and needs.
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And unfortunately that's what has happened.
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And so, like I said in the beginning, it's like
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a combination of this tensions that have been building up
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for the last at three.
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Years rose you started to see the cracks. So we
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know that gen z Anti government protests have been having
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their moment in Nepal, in Morocco, Peru, other countries, and
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in Madagascar's capital of Antenna Narivo. Thousands of protesters were
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in the streets.
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At least twenty two killed in anti government protests according
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to the UN, and one hundred reported injured and clashes
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with security forces, all figures disputed by the country's government.
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What were the issues that brought people to the streets
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in the first place, Because I've seen a lot of
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signs written in Malagassy mostly, but signs that call for water,
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signs that call for electricity. What were people calling for?
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The reasons behind the protests are very genuine and very serious,
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and a lot of it has to do with social,
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economic development, which is that the youth feels like the
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government has not prioritized economic developments. There's not enough jobs
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for the young people. Infrastructure is poor and hasn't been
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developed sufficiently, especially outside the capital Antanana rival. But also
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there's a problem with service delivery, inefficiencies and states corporations,
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including the power utility, the water services, which is that
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access to water, access to electricity and other basic necessity
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is very very limited, especially when we go outside the capitol,
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and so you know, those are the primary concerns the
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of the youth. But also there's the fact that there's
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been more and more reports of police brutality and repression
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against the youth and the opposition and violence which have
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made you know, these sentiments match once.
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But also there's.
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Been more and more annotations of corruption against the Visualina region.
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They are corrupt, they are incompetent.
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Sorry, we gen Z are mobilizing of the old guard
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who are just lining their pockets make way for young people.
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Some of his online some of the business elits that
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he collaborates with having involved in huge corruption scandals and
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so of course the youth are claiming that this corruption
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and this illicit patronage systems networks are to blame for
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their conditions, for the poverty level and for the time
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that the government hasn't prioritized socioeconomic development. And so yeah,
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the concerns are very serious and very genuine.
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Okay, very serious concerns. Well, Rose, I know that you
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are based in Nairobi, Kenya, but you've been to Madagascar
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several times. So from your advantage point, what does it
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feel like? Can you feel those concerns in everyday life?
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The people needing electricity and not having enough of it
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to go about their daily lives, people needing water and
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not having enough of that? What does that actually feel
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like on the ground.
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What start out to me was the inequality in the country.
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Spell in London and Vere you see a five star
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hotel next to Islam, like yeah, sharing a wall. You'll
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see people begging on the street for food, and you know,
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five minutes later you see a very fancy car being
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driven by whether it's a businessman or a politician.
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And so these inequalities are.
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Very very apparent when when you're in Madagascar and you
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know the poverty levels, Ye're just there in your face.
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You can't ignore them. But in addition to this, poverty level.
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This is it needs who are living very luxurians lights
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and of course that's going to anger the youth in
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the same way has angered you, for example in Kenya
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and other other parts of the content.
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Yeah.
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Well, Madagascar's president has not officially resigned despite all of
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those grievances that people have, and in a video message
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from an undisclosed location, he said he had been forced
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fully because of a plot to
assassinate him at his palace.
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Maraamila vivis.
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A group of military personnel and politicians considered attempting to
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take my life.
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What can you tell us about this president who's currently
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on the run. What should we know about him?
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Well, I think the most important thing to know and
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this is basically kind of part of them. Why I
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was able to predict that this would happen is that
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Rangelina took power after coup in two thousand and nine.
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Born to a relatively wealthy family and privately educated Andredswell
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started his career as a DJ in the clubs and
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bars of Antanana, Rivo, the fresh faced politician, launched his
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political career after establishing himself as a successful advertising entrepreneur.
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He was put in power by business elease and all
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are these same people who he's fallen out with right now.
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How ironic is that for you as a political risk analyst?
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Do you watch these things as they unfold and you
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predict accurately In this case, that seems very ironic.
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Yeah, very very ironic, but also very.
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I believe that he knew that this was a possibility
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and he worked really really hard to prevent this, and
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that's part of the reason why he took a bit
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of an authoritarian turn in recent years.
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He really tried to.
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Consolidate power, tried to take control over some army units
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while appeasing these business elites, trying to manage that. But
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also he put in a lot of effort to re
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engage the international community after the co of two thousand
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and nine. For a very long time and Agasta was
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excluded from the international community. Donors start funding, multilateral institutions
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start funding, and so it was a very difficult time
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for the government.
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How they survived was by.
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Basically entrenching illicit patronage networks and sectorms such as mining, agriculture.
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So I meanly survived, but to the
very difficult situation.
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So when he came and became president. After winning the elections,
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he prioritized re engaging the international community, and of course
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he did this as a way to rebuild Madagascar's economy,
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but behind that was also the hope that by re
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engaging with the international community and gaining their support, that
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would give him enough legitimacy that would discourage his tractors
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from removing him as constitutionality. So that's one of the
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things that he was really really banking on, and you
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know things, of course, having turned out the way he hoped,
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he would.
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War with rows.
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After the break, a young woman killed a stranger in
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South Korea because of her obsession with true crime stories.
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Her curiosity for dark tales became a deadly impulse to
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try out one of her own. Is the media responsible?
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Does true crime harm more than it helps? You're the
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full story on true crime reports.
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Well Roase. Along with the protesters, there's another power player
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at the table. People who have been watching the protests
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unfold have said the movement seemed to reach this turning
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point over the weekend when this elite army unit known
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as CAPSAT became involved. Can you tell us about CAPSAT
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and what their role in this has been.
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Yeah, so Capside doesn't really have a frontline role in
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the army, but they are the most influential army unit
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because of their historical legitimacy, because like I said, in Madagascar,
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you know, the army is the most organized and has
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that legitimacy that they are basically allowed by the population
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to take over in case about crisis, which has been
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caps AT leading this in the previous schools that have happened,
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and so they are very influential.
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They have very close ties to business elites.
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In as much as we only do like the man
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genial and technical aspect of the army, they have a
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lot of influence and legitimacy. And so when they decide
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that we are signing with the protesters and Hagulina has
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to resign or has to go, then is that statement
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carries a lot of weight in the country because of
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what they have done in the past and how much
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influence they have.
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So talk to me about what it felt like for
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you to see that moment when the protesters are out
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on the streets and then cheers erupted because they began
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to see caps AT members join their ranks. It seemed
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like something had shifted, or at least something was going
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to shift.
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Well, I mean, if I'm being honest, I felt a
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bit sad for the protestants because I know how you know,
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how much bravery and resilience it takes to be able
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to do that kind of protests in Madagascar. But at
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the same time, based on what I know about the
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army and whose interests they are serving, I knew that
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the protesters, unfortunately, they're not going to.
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Get what they want. Even if the army takes over.
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The army will just replicate the same power structure and
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power dynamics, and Halina was just a different person than
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they trust more and so for the protesters, that was
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my first Thoughtlet is this really a win for the protesters.
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They're putting so much effort, and there's a lot of them,
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you know, suffered from the violence of the police and
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all that, and so my first thought was what a
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shame that the army has once again. I mean, they
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might be one intentional, who knows, but my fear is
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that this business at leits might choose their links to
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the army.
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To hijack basically the movement.
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And it reminds me of you know, places like Sudan
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and other places in the region.
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Yeah, well, a colonel from that elite unit, Colonel Mikhael
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randrian Arena, is sworn in as Madagascar as new president
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and he gave an interview to the Associated Press and
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what he talked about the country's next steps.
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In directors, we had to take responsibility yesterday because there
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is nothing left in the country, no president, no president
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in the Senate, no government. Madagascar is a dying country.
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We must take responsibility as citizens and patriots.
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What do we know about him anything?
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In twenty twenty three, he was arrested and accused of
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plotting a coup. My concern was that he was suspected
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of having of supporting the opposition basically at the time,
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and so that's one thing that I know about him.
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But I also know that he has very close links
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to some of the influential political and business lialits in
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the country and they were able to negotiate it for
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his quick release after that incident.
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I don't know.
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He's connected, and he's well connected, means he's not necessarily
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an outsider.
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He has connected He's definitely not an outsider.
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He has connections and yeah, he I might not know
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he personally, but I know him from the general political
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or the stakeholders in the army and people who have
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you know, intervened on his behalf.
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Well, okay, looking back at history, do you think that
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there is a sense that people can trust this government
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this time around, this new military government.
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Well, I think people are hopeful, of course, and I
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think it's a good thing that people are hopeful, because
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that's what we'll keep them going. And people are trying
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to wish for the best and trying to see the
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best in the arm because they do believe in the
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army to.
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A certain extent.
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But like I said, there's a fear, there's a likelihood
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that's the same and needs that put in power will
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lose their links to the military to visibly install someone
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else who will protect and entrench this illicit patronage systems.
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And I think, you know, the military leaders are aware
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of that this could happen. All that they are when
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that people might be worried about this, and they they've
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made some big promises. They promised to go after some
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of the corrupt businessmen and business it needs, and so
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it remains to be s another that we follow through
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with that. I think if they follow through with that,
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that would be a good sign, But otherwise my concern
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is actually just repeating the same cycle.
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Okay, well, thinking of cycles in a bid to not
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repeat them. I want to end here with a tiny
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bit of history, but using it to look forward, because
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Madagascar has been an independent country for sixty five years.
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Before it was a French colony, and before that it
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was home to many independent people groups, and it had
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a long history of trade. It's also now one of
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the poorest countries in the world. So when you think
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of Madagascar's history and how this movement turned military coup
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fits into that, do you have a lot of hope
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for what comes next? In your role as someone who
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looks at the risk and analyzes it and makes predictions.
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I'm very cautious right now because of what has happened
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in the past and because of what I know about
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the people who are leading some of the movements right now,
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and so when it comes to history, I think perhaps
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one of the biggest things that I think of is
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how much violent repression Madagascar faced under the French colonists,
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and how that has meant that today there's a lot
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of communities that, because of that are still discouraged or
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rather reluctant to participate in politics, especially outside the capitol,
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which gives politicians a lot of power.
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And you know, I also.
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Think of some of the you know, the complex ethnic
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context of Madagascar, which means that there's you know, the Marina,
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who make about twenty percent of the population and have
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primarily power around the capitol. The fact that they are
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not a majority, they have to rely on agreements usually
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based on convenience with leaders from the other communities, the
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other coastal communities, and how this has created a system
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where political alliances in Madagascar shaped quite rapidly. And the
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people who was a bordering gradual Lena two weeks ago,
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a lot of them have voted for his impeachment. And
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it's a very unstable, very unstable political system, very weak institutions,
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And for me, that's a big, big vulnerability. And in
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as much as I want to have hope, I'm concerned
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that because of these weak institutions, these informal players who
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might not have any official positions but have so much
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power based on their links or based on their ability
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to bring together different interests, and how those actors might
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hijack whatever movement people are trying to do to change things,
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and so yeah, and I want to be hopeful, but
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based on what I know, are more concerned and hopeful.
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M Well Rose, thank you for sharing what you know.
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We really appreciate your analysis here.
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Thank you for being on the take, Thank you for
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having me