النص الكامل لحلقة Ghee gets costlier, climate promises fall short, and a dispute over firecrackers

that it has been adulterated. 69 00:04:25.759 --> 00:04:30.660 Additionally, Harish highlights that in September 2025, the government reduced 70 00:04:30.819 --> 00:04:34.860 GST on several dairy items. Tax on ghee, butter and 71 00:04:34.920 --> 00:04:36.779 cheese was brought down from 12% to 5%, while ice 72 00:04:36.800 --> 00:04:44.939 cream moved from 18% to 5%. Packaged paneer was made tax-free. 73 00:04:45.360 --> 00:04:49.300 So these reductions naturally made dairy products more affordable and, 74 00:04:49.420 --> 00:04:53.370 according to industry experts, helped stimulate consumption. And there is 75 00:04:53.430 --> 00:04:57.170 also the question of exports. Over the last two financial years, 76 00:04:57.629 --> 00:05:03.470 India exported substantial quantities of ghee, butter and anhydrous milk fat, 77 00:05:03.829 --> 00:05:06.370 particularly when international prices were high. 78 00:05:07.629 --> 00:05:10.129 So India was exporting a lot of ghee. So there 79 00:05:10.170 --> 00:05:12.389 was a time when I think the year before last, 80 00:05:12.430 --> 00:05:15.970 your global prices of ghee, of fat shot up. So 81 00:05:16.069 --> 00:05:19.129 because of that, a lot of fat got exported, you know, 82 00:05:19.149 --> 00:05:20.870 and probably I think the government will have to be 83 00:05:20.910 --> 00:05:24.279 very careful about exports. You know, you can allow exports 84 00:05:24.339 --> 00:05:27.519 in consumer packs, you know, like if it is branded consumer, 85 00:05:27.779 --> 00:05:29.740 you know, if it is going as a Amul ghee 86 00:05:29.800 --> 00:05:32.500 or something, it's fine. But I think we should be 87 00:05:32.540 --> 00:05:36.339 very careful about exporting fat in bulk, you know, especially 88 00:05:36.360 --> 00:05:39.439 if it is amidress, milk fat, etc. Because the fact is, 89 00:05:39.620 --> 00:05:42.319 we have a structural problem today, you know, which is 90 00:05:42.360 --> 00:05:46.279 that the fat consumption is growing, whereas probably the SMP, 91 00:05:46.300 --> 00:05:48.800 that is the SNF portion is not growing that much, 92 00:05:48.899 --> 00:05:51.240 you know. So to that extent, India has to be 93 00:05:51.279 --> 00:05:51.930 a little balanced. 94 00:05:52.939 --> 00:05:57.720 So what explains this growing imbalance? One important factor, Harish says, 95 00:05:58.139 --> 00:06:02.939 is a gradual change in the composition of India's dairy production. Traditionally, 96 00:06:03.350 --> 00:06:07.589 buffaloes accounted for a larger share of the country's milk supply. Now, 97 00:06:07.629 --> 00:06:13.769 buffalo milk generally contains between 6.5 and 8% fat, significantly 98 00:06:13.829 --> 00:06:17.310 more than cow milk. But over the years, farmers have 99 00:06:17.410 --> 00:06:21.949 increasingly preferred cross-bred cows, which tend to produce more milk 100 00:06:22.170 --> 00:06:26.089 and begin lactating earlier than buffaloes. As a result, the 101 00:06:26.129 --> 00:06:29.629 share of buffalo milk in India's total production has declined 102 00:06:29.970 --> 00:06:33.389 from roughly 57% at the beginning of the century to 103 00:06:33.430 --> 00:06:38.009 around 45% today. That means India may be producing more 104 00:06:38.100 --> 00:06:41.699 milk overall, but the proportion of fat available from that 105 00:06:41.839 --> 00:06:45.180 milk is changing. And then there is the larger question 106 00:06:45.579 --> 00:06:49.339 of how quickly India's milk production can expand. According to 107 00:06:49.399 --> 00:06:53.339 estimates from the US Department of Agriculture, India's milk production 108 00:06:53.399 --> 00:06:59.120 growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2026 and 109 00:06:59.120 --> 00:07:02.860 2% in 2027, partly because of tightening feed and fodder 110 00:07:02.899 --> 00:07:07.910 supplies and concerns about animal productivity. And climate conditions could 111 00:07:08.069 --> 00:07:09.209 further complicate this. 112 00:07:10.819 --> 00:07:13.850 So I don't expect El Nino's impact to be on 113 00:07:13.910 --> 00:07:17.829 milk production immediately because the past experience suggests that, you know, 114 00:07:17.870 --> 00:07:20.569 whenever there is a drought here, what happens is actually 115 00:07:20.670 --> 00:07:23.569 milk procurement by dairies goes up because milk is a 116 00:07:23.629 --> 00:07:26.389 source of daily liquidity. So what happens is when there 117 00:07:26.430 --> 00:07:31.610 is drought, farmers stop growing regular crops, you know, say wheat, 118 00:07:32.009 --> 00:07:35.899 say rice, say sugarcane. Because farmers prefer not to grow 119 00:07:36.139 --> 00:07:39.420 these crops. And instead, what they do is they prefer, 120 00:07:39.439 --> 00:07:41.920 you know, whatever little water is there, they try and, 121 00:07:41.959 --> 00:07:44.389 you know, reserve it for the animals, you know, including 122 00:07:44.430 --> 00:07:47.089 growing fodder, etc. So what happens is in that very 123 00:07:47.189 --> 00:07:50.750 first year, your milk production will not fall. But what 124 00:07:50.790 --> 00:07:53.410 happens is that the farmers will tend to feed the 125 00:07:53.949 --> 00:07:57.220 animals in milk more, you know. So suppose there is 126 00:07:57.240 --> 00:07:59.860 a cow which is already giving milk, they will give 127 00:07:59.959 --> 00:08:03.980 more fodder to that cow, you know. And suppose earlier 128 00:08:04.040 --> 00:08:08.050 they were sending, say, a buffalo for slaughter, you know, 129 00:08:08.060 --> 00:08:10.709 they'll keep that buffalo for one more season. But what 130 00:08:10.750 --> 00:08:15.089 happens is that the pregnant cows, the calves, they all 131 00:08:15.149 --> 00:08:18.110 don't get enough fodder because all the fodder is being 132 00:08:18.230 --> 00:08:21.389 used for the animals which are already yielding milk. So 133 00:08:21.430 --> 00:08:24.720 what happens? So you'll see the impact of drought, etc., 134 00:08:24.569 -->

00:08:28.250 fodder shortage, etc., Coming not now, but the effects will 135 00:08:28.290 --> 00:08:31.660 be next year. Because the calves that have been underfed, 136 00:08:32.100 --> 00:08:36.039 they won't grow to be cows which can... Their entire 137 00:08:36.139 --> 00:08:38.980 pregnancy and lactation cycle gets disrupted. 138 00:08:44.289 --> 00:08:48.429 And next, we move our attention to Turkey, where world leaders, 139 00:08:48.610 --> 00:08:54.190 diplomats and climate negotiators have gathered for COP31. the annual 140 00:08:54.250 --> 00:08:57.950 United Nations Climate Summit, at a time when one of 141 00:08:57.990 --> 00:09:02.019 the world's most important climate goals appears to be slipping 142 00:09:02.100 --> 00:09:06.159 out of reach. Back in 2015, nearly every country in 143 00:09:06.200 --> 00:09:09.940 the world came together to adopt the Paris Agreement, committing 144 00:09:10.080 --> 00:09:14.210 to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above 145 00:09:14.289 --> 00:09:19.309 pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees. 146 00:09:20.909 --> 00:09:24.250 The idea was to prevent the worst consequences of climate 147 00:09:24.269 --> 00:09:29.340 change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and gradually moving away 148 00:09:29.440 --> 00:09:32.860 from fossil fuels. But more than a decade later, the 149 00:09:32.919 --> 00:09:35.779 world is nowhere close to meeting that ambition. 150 00:09:37.070 --> 00:09:41.029 Because, you know, we are expecting a little too much 151 00:09:41.309 --> 00:09:43.129 from the cops, actually. 152 00:09:43.149 --> 00:09:47.370 That's The Indian Express's Amitabh Sinha, who reports on climate 153 00:09:47.429 --> 00:09:48.289 action for the paper. 154 00:09:49.429 --> 00:09:53.679 The COPs have delivered what they had to deliver. They 155 00:09:53.720 --> 00:09:57.629 have set the climate targets, the temperature targets that we 156 00:09:57.649 --> 00:10:01.120 are all familiar with, 1.5 degrees Celsius. and 2 degrees 157 00:10:01.139 --> 00:10:06.139 Celsius targets. And they have also laid down the broad 158 00:10:06.299 --> 00:10:11.009 rules for international climate action. What now remains to be 159 00:10:11.070 --> 00:10:15.970 done is that individual countries have to take climate actions. 160 00:10:16.450 --> 00:10:21.320 And together, these climate actions should be able to do 161 00:10:21.600 --> 00:10:26.320 enough to reverse or fight the problem of climate change. Now, 162 00:10:26.340 --> 00:10:31.220 that second part is not happening. And it's not COP's 163 00:10:31.500 --> 00:10:36.000 fault because, you know, there is no mechanism within the 164 00:10:36.059 --> 00:10:41.409 COPs to force the countries to do more. Now, that 165 00:10:41.470 --> 00:10:45.090 is one perspective. The other perspective, look at it from 166 00:10:45.149 --> 00:10:49.669 the country's perspective. Now, there is a valid argument to 167 00:10:49.710 --> 00:10:53.799 suggest that, look, the targets that were set in the 168 00:10:53.840 --> 00:10:57.059 Paris Agreement, the 1.5 and 2 degrees target that we 169 00:10:57.100 --> 00:11:02.139 talk about, these targets were too difficult to start with. 170 00:11:02.830 --> 00:11:06.350 They were too ambitious. In fact, you know, the Paris 171 00:11:06.409 --> 00:11:11.870 Agreement sort of relies very heavily on the moral force 172 00:11:11.929 --> 00:11:14.750 and the good conscience of the countries to, you know, 173 00:11:15.250 --> 00:11:19.000 do good for the world as a whole, not look 174 00:11:19.080 --> 00:11:24.220 at their own interests, not forego, prioritize global interest over 175 00:11:24.659 --> 00:11:28.840 their own economic interests, their own developmental needs. That is 176 00:11:28.940 --> 00:11:33.870 not something that happens. Now, that is an inherent weakness 177 00:11:34.190 --> 00:11:38.720 of the Paris Agreement. And the results of that, it's 178 00:11:38.820 --> 00:11:39.980 unfolding right now. 179 00:11:41.139 --> 00:11:44.539 And this is the backdrop against which COP 31 began 180 00:11:44.659 --> 00:11:47.909 in the Turkish city of Antalya on Monday, and is 181 00:11:47.950 --> 00:11:51.690 expected to discuss ways to accelerate climate action and build 182 00:11:51.730 --> 00:11:55.789 on commitments made during previous summits. But there is little 183 00:11:55.850 --> 00:11:57.970 expectation of any major breakthrough. 184 00:11:58.980 --> 00:12:02.379 The COP process still has some meaning, a lot of meaning. 185 00:12:02.639 --> 00:12:05.779 In fact, you know, climate change has dropped in the 186 00:12:05.820 --> 00:12:09.049 global priority list for global agenda. It has dropped down. 187 00:12:09.129 --> 00:12:12.830 You don't see climate discussed as vociferously as it was. 188 00:12:13.129 --> 00:12:14.889 It used to be just two to three years ago 189 00:12:15.330 --> 00:12:18.129 at different global stages. You know, earlier it used to 190 00:12:18.149 --> 00:12:22.299 be the main agenda, G20, G7, all regional forums in 191 00:12:22.360 --> 00:12:25.720 trade talks and everything. Now, it's not happening. I mean, 192 00:12:25.860 --> 00:12:29.419 climate is not the biggest agenda on these different forums, 193 00:12:29.620 --> 00:12:33.600 but it is the main agenda on this climate meetings. 194 00:12:33.639 --> 00:12:38.580 The climate meetings have been constructed specifically to discuss climate change. 195 00:12:39.120 --> 00:12:41.639 And the problem of climate change hasn't gone away. There 196 00:12:41.700 --> 00:12:44.250 are other problems that have come up. There are wars 197 00:12:44.279 --> 00:12:46.990 that have come up. There is an energy security crisis 198 00:12:47.029 --> 00:12:48.789 that is staring us in the face and all sorts 199 00:12:48.850 --> 00:12:53.149 of things, more emergent things are requiring our attention. But 200 00:12:53.190 --> 00:12:56.610 the climate

change hasn't disappeared. You have to deal with it. 201 00:12:56.649 --> 00:12:59.779 You have to, you know, find ways to come up 202 00:12:59.840 --> 00:13:04.940 with actions, collaborate, cooperate with each other and deal with 203 00:13:04.980 --> 00:13:08.340 the climate change. And that's what we will see happening 204 00:13:08.559 --> 00:13:11.480 at these COPs. So, they are not irrelevant, but to 205 00:13:11.620 --> 00:13:16.759 expect them to come up with something that will miraculously 206 00:13:17.120 --> 00:13:21.610 prevent the 1.5 degree centigrade breach or 2 degrees breach, 207 00:13:22.029 --> 00:13:25.490 that is something that is, we are confusing what its 208 00:13:25.889 --> 00:13:26.970 role has to be. 209 00:13:28.149 --> 00:13:31.409 Now, of course, over the years, COP meetings have produced 210 00:13:31.549 --> 00:13:36.169 several important agreements, most notably the Paris Agreement itself. But 211 00:13:36.450 --> 00:13:40.269 they have struggled to ensure that countries actually deliver on 212 00:13:40.309 --> 00:13:40.990 their commitments. 213 00:13:42.490 --> 00:13:45.610 And, you know, a lot has been done. It would 214 00:13:45.649 --> 00:13:49.110 be a mistake to say nothing has happened. There are 215 00:13:49.350 --> 00:13:53.350 thousands of actions that are being taken across the world, 216 00:13:53.629 --> 00:13:57.909 both by states like governments and also by non-state actors 217 00:13:58.009 --> 00:14:03.799 like corporations, civil society organizations, even individuals. All sorts of 218 00:14:03.980 --> 00:14:07.059 actions are being taken. a lot of these actions also 219 00:14:07.200 --> 00:14:11.820 have a variety of co-benefits in terms of, say, poverty reduction, 220 00:14:11.899 --> 00:14:15.279 in terms of better livelihoods, in terms of food security, 221 00:14:15.340 --> 00:14:19.100 in terms of energy security. Lots of co-benefits also come 222 00:14:19.179 --> 00:14:22.539 out of these actions. Now, again, we come back to 223 00:14:22.659 --> 00:14:26.320 the fact that even though lots of these climate actions 224 00:14:26.700 --> 00:14:30.120 are being taken, they are not adequate. They are not 225 00:14:30.399 --> 00:14:34.929 adequate to meet the 1.5 and 2 degrees targets. So 226 00:14:35.000 --> 00:14:37.980 then we come back to these targets, whether they were, 227 00:14:38.000 --> 00:14:41.200 you know, too ambitious to start with. And it's actually 228 00:14:41.240 --> 00:14:44.639 very clear, you know, even if we bring down the 229 00:14:44.799 --> 00:14:49.269 entire emissions, entire global emissions to zero right now, things 230 00:14:49.470 --> 00:14:52.929 are not going to change for the next three, four decades. 231 00:14:53.669 --> 00:14:56.870 Amitabh, you have covered quite a few of these conferences. 232 00:14:57.250 --> 00:15:00.330 So tell us, after 30 years of co-ops, are we 233 00:15:00.409 --> 00:15:04.039 reaching a fatigue point in the process? Or does the 234 00:15:04.080 --> 00:15:06.960 fact that countries still show up signal hope? 235 00:15:07.679 --> 00:15:11.919 So not exactly a fatigue point. And I think countries 236 00:15:11.980 --> 00:15:15.139 not just show up, most of them show up quite 237 00:15:15.500 --> 00:15:19.590 enthusiastically and in a lot of hope. But more than fatigue, 238 00:15:19.690 --> 00:15:24.350 there is certainly an element of frustration. And that frustration 239 00:15:24.629 --> 00:15:29.230 emanates from the fact that the pace of climate action 240 00:15:29.710 --> 00:15:32.470 so far in the last 30 years that, you know, 241 00:15:32.629 --> 00:15:35.169 the world has been trying to fight climate change, the 242 00:15:35.210 --> 00:15:40.720 pace of climate action has not been commensurate to the 243 00:15:41.179 --> 00:15:45.379 scale of the problem. Now, I'm sure a lot of 244 00:15:45.460 --> 00:15:50.299 our listeners would be aware that last year, 2024, the 1.5 245 00:15:50.299 --> 00:15:55.399 degree temperature target was breached. So one year, the 1.5 246 00:15:55.399 --> 00:15:58.799 degree target has already been breached. And going by the 247 00:15:58.840 --> 00:16:02.779 current trend, it's likely to become a normal affair in 248 00:16:02.820 --> 00:16:06.750 maybe 5 or 10 years that consistently the annual temperatures 249 00:16:06.809 --> 00:16:11.590 would be 1.5 degrees higher than the pre-industrial times. While 250 00:16:11.610 --> 00:16:16.629 at the same time, the global emissions, emissions of greenhouse gases, 251 00:16:16.690 --> 00:16:21.080 which are the main reason for global warming, those emissions 252 00:16:21.399 --> 00:16:26.440 are still rising. So the frustration actually comes from this, 253 00:16:26.519 --> 00:16:31.529 that the pace of climate action, what needed to happen, basically, 254 00:16:31.950 --> 00:16:36.169 that has not happened till now. And therefore, we are 255 00:16:36.269 --> 00:16:41.980 likely to miss the 2030 targets as well. And, you know, 256 00:16:42.080 --> 00:16:45.379 the 1.5 degree target, as I said, is almost out 257 00:16:45.440 --> 00:16:50.120 of reach already. And the next, you know, the fear 258 00:16:50.159 --> 00:16:53.039 is that even the 2 degree target is likely to 259 00:16:53.080 --> 00:16:55.700 go out of the window very soon. So the frustration 260 00:16:55.779 --> 00:16:59.600 emanates from that. But I think most countries, if you 261 00:16:59.720 --> 00:17:03.500 ask them, are still hopeful that something can be done. Right. 262 00:17:03.559 --> 00:17:06.759 And Amitabh, besides this, and we've actually spoken about this 263 00:17:06.920 --> 00:17:10.920 earlier as well, that developing countries are clearly frustrated with 264 00:17:10.940 --> 00:17:15.009 the lack of adequate climate finance and technology transfers as well. 265 00:17:15.309 --> 00:17:18.390 So would you say the trust deficit between the global 266 00:17:18.470 --> 00:17:21.410 North and South has now become the biggest

obstacle? 267 00:17:22.329 --> 00:17:22.549 Yes. 268 00:17:22.809 --> 00:17:27.240 I mean, finance, technology certainly are issues that frustrate the 269 00:17:27.259 --> 00:17:31.559 developing countries. They are extremely disappointed with the fact that 270 00:17:31.880 --> 00:17:35.839 the developed countries have not even taken adequate measures to 271 00:17:35.900 --> 00:17:39.059 reduce their emissions, right? I mean, as our readers would 272 00:17:39.099 --> 00:17:42.960 also be aware that the United States has pulled out 273 00:17:43.440 --> 00:17:47.160 of the Paris Agreement. It happened immediately after Donald Trump 274 00:17:47.759 --> 00:17:51.039 became president. Now, the important thing here is the United 275 00:17:51.119 --> 00:17:56.660 States is still the largest historical emitter By historical emitter, 276 00:17:56.809 --> 00:17:59.390 I mean, you know, since the start of the industrial 277 00:17:59.470 --> 00:18:04.569 age till now, cumulatively, the United States has produced more 278 00:18:04.769 --> 00:18:09.230 greenhouse gases than any other country. And therefore, under, you know, 279 00:18:09.250 --> 00:18:12.369 the polluters pay principle sort of a thing that the 280 00:18:12.410 --> 00:18:16.329 climate change architecture applies, the United States also has the 281 00:18:16.390 --> 00:18:19.869 biggest responsibility to do the cleanup action, meaning it has 282 00:18:19.910 --> 00:18:23.910 the biggest responsibility to, you know, one, mitigate its emissions, 283 00:18:24.069 --> 00:18:27.759 I mean, reduce its emissions. and to also provide finance 284 00:18:27.819 --> 00:18:31.339 and technology. So the United States is a key player here, 285 00:18:31.619 --> 00:18:35.769 and it has just abdicated its responsibility by having moved 286 00:18:36.009 --> 00:18:39.049 out of the Paris Agreement. So the way the international 287 00:18:39.089 --> 00:18:43.730 climate architecture is designed, It puts a higher degree of 288 00:18:43.789 --> 00:18:47.829 responsibility on the developed countries to reduce their emissions, to 289 00:18:47.890 --> 00:18:51.950 provide money and to provide technology to the developing countries 290 00:18:51.990 --> 00:18:54.990 to help them fight climate change. And that has not 291 00:18:55.049 --> 00:18:59.190 been fulfilled. The developing countries have been angry, have been 292 00:18:59.349 --> 00:19:02.180 very disappointed and extremely frustrated. 293 00:19:02.200 --> 00:19:10.619 And in the end... We talk about a violent Diwali 294 00:19:10.680 --> 00:19:15.009 night dispute in Uttar Pradesh's Bhagpat, where a 26-year-old man, 295 00:19:15.400 --> 00:19:19.109 posted with Rashtrapati Bhavan security, was shot in the head 296 00:19:19.490 --> 00:19:24.069 after an argument over bursting firecrackers. Saurabh Tomar had returned 297 00:19:24.109 --> 00:19:27.880 to his village, Gopalpur Khadan, to celebrate Diwali with his 298 00:19:27.930 --> 00:19:30.200 family when the confrontation took place. 299 00:19:30.839 --> 00:19:31.559 As reported by. 300 00:19:31.460 --> 00:19:34.920 The Indian Express's Manish Sahu, Saurabh and members of his 301 00:19:34.980 --> 00:19:38.559 family were bursting firecrackers on the road when two neighbours, 302 00:19:38.859 --> 00:19:43.519 brothers Dhiraj and Monu, objected. The disagreement initially involved Saurabh's 303 00:19:43.640 --> 00:19:48.069 elder brother Vineeth, but police say it soon escalated. Dhiraj 304 00:19:48.109 --> 00:19:52.220 allegedly pulled out a countryman. pistol and opened fire. The 305 00:19:52.259 --> 00:19:55.460 bullet first struck a wall and then hit Saurabh in 306 00:19:55.480 --> 00:19:58.839 the head. The accused are also alleged to have assaulted 307 00:19:58.880 --> 00:20:02.839 Vineeth and threatened the family before fleeing. Saurabh was rushed 308 00:20:02.880 --> 00:20:06.480 to hospital, where doctors performed surgery and removed the bullet. 309 00:20:07.150 --> 00:20:09.529 Police said his condition was stable at the time of 310 00:20:09.569 --> 00:20:13.160 the report. An FIR has now been registered against Dheeraj 311 00:20:13.180 --> 00:20:16.500 and Monu on charges of attempt to murder and police 312 00:20:16.539 --> 00:20:20.289 say efforts are underway to arrest them. Now, there may 313 00:20:20.369 --> 00:20:24.349 also be a longer history behind the confrontation. Saurabh's father, 314 00:20:24.750 --> 00:20:27.869 Janak Raj, has alleged that the two families had an 315 00:20:28.170 --> 00:20:31.410 old enmity and and said his sons were attacked after 316 00:20:31.430 --> 00:20:35.180 the accused arrived while they were bursting crackers. Police have 317 00:20:35.279 --> 00:20:39.500 not independently established that claim. Saurabh, who has reportedly been 318 00:20:39.599 --> 00:20:43.140 posted at Rashtrapati Bhavan for the past seven years, got 319 00:20:43.200 --> 00:20:46.380 married around two years ago and has a nine-month-old child. 320 00:20:49.500 --> 00:20:51.880 You were listening to Three Things by The Indian Express. 321 00:20:52.160 --> 00:20:55.339 Today's show was edited and mixed by Suresh Pawar and 322 00:20:55.380 --> 00:20:58.670 produced by Shashank Bhargav and me, Itchha Sharma. If you 323 00:20:58.710 --> 00:21:01.210 like the show, do subscribe to us wherever you get 324 00:21:01.230 --> 00:21:03.910 your podcast. 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